德意志银行中国股票市场XXXX年预测

AsiaChinaStrategyUpdate3January2011China:ThemesandStrategyfor2011FromInflationtoDisinflationJunMa,Ph.DChiefEconomist(+852)[e-mail]st(+852)[e-mail],Ph.DStrategist(+852)[e-mail]/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)007/05/2010StrategyInflationwilllikelybethemostimportantmacrodriverformarketperformancein2011.Highinflationin1Htendstodepressthemarketasitgeneratesfearanduncertaintyoverpolicytightening.Aneasingofinflationnearthemiddleoftheyearshouldjustifyamarketrerating.Thekeyrisktothisoutlookisgovernmentfailuretoimplementaggressiveanti-inflationmeasuresatthebeginningoftheyear.Weareoverweightinsectorsthatbenefitfrommajorstructuralchanges.Thesebeneficiariesinclude2nd-and3rd-tiercitydevelopers,tourism,ITservices,propertyagencies,equipment,newenergyandcement,aswellaslocalretailersandbankswithmajorexposuretoinlandgrowth.CompanyGlobalMarketsResearchAsiaChinaStrategyUpdate3January2011ChinaMacroStrategy2011ThemesandStrategyFromInflationtoDisinflationJunMa,Ph.DChiefEconomist(+852)[e-mail]st(+852)[e-mail],Ph.DStrategist(+852)[e-mail]/HongKongAllpricesarethosecurrentattheendoftheprevioustradingsessionunlessotherwiseindicated.PricesaresourcedfromlocalexchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.DataissourcedfromDeutscheBankandsubjectcompanies.DeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MICA(P)007/05/2010TopTenBuysCompanyTickerRating2011ABC1288.HKBuy9.225%Evergrande3333.HKBuy6.525%CRE0291.HKBuy28.732%CSR1766.HKBuy25.137%ChinaShipDev1138.HKBuy9.848%Shangri-LaAsia0069.HKBuy26.040%SoufunSFUN.NBuy17.140%GeelyAuto0175.HKBuy13.123%ZTE0763.HKBuy20.219%LongyuanPower0916.HKBuy16.748%Average17.234%MSCIChina11.815%PEEPSCAGR10-1215%upsidetoMSCIChinain2011Ourend-2011MSCIChinaindextargetimpliesa15%upsideinthecoming12months.Thisbasedonourexpectationof15%EPSgrowthin2011andunchangedmarketvaluationattheyear-end.1Hinflationand2HdisinflationshoulddrivemarketdynamicsTheinflationtrajectoryin2011willlikelybethemostimportantmacrodriverformarketperformance.WeraiseourannualCPIinflationforecastto4.4%from4.1%,andourpolicyrateexpectationtoanotherthreehikestotaling75bps.Weexpectinflationtostayuncomfortablyhighduringmostof1H(topeakat5.5%yoyin2Q),butitwilllikelydeclinetowards3-4%in2H.Highinflationin1Htendstodepressthemarketasitgeneratesfearanduncertaintyoverpolicytightening.Aneasingofinflationnearthemiddleoftheyearshouldjustifyamarketreratingaspolicyuncertaintiesareremoved.Keyriskstothisoutlookincludegovernmentfailuretotightenpolicyaggressivelyatthebeginningoftheyear,worseningweatherconditions,asurgeinglobalcommodityprices,andanincreaseinmoneyvelocity.SectorrotationonchangeininflationprofileOursectorpreferencefortheyearshouldchangeaccordingtotheinflationprofile.Duringperiodsin1Hwheninflationremainshighandevenrises,wewillprefersectorsthatarelessvulnerabletocredittightening,ratehikesandpriceintervention.Inparticular,wepreferlargebanks,insurance,commercialproperties,retailing,equipment,ITservicesandtourism.WewillbecautiousonIPPs,coal,smallerbanks,oilandgas,andhighlyleverageddevelopers.Wheninflationbeginstoabate,whichweexpecttostartinthemiddleof2011,thevictimsofinflationshouldbegintooutperformthemarket.SectorstrategyfortheyearasawholeFortheyearasawhole,weareoverweightinsectorsthatshouldbenefitfrommajorstructuralchanges.Thesebeneficiariesinclude2nd-and3rd-tiercitydevelopers,tourism,ITservices,propertyagencies,equipment,newenergyandcement,aswellaslocalretailersandbankswithmajorexposuretoinlandgrowth.SixstructuralthemesWehighlightsixmajorstructuralthemes:1)financialreformswilllikelydepresstheEPSgrowthofmid-sizedbanks;2)thepublichousingprogram,whichwilllikelygrowmorethan100%in2011,shouldsupportcement,butchallengedevelopersinthemid-endmarket;3)theequipmentsectorwilllikelyoutperformtherestofmanufacturing;4)serviceswilllikelyoutperformmanufacturing;5)smartgridequipment,wastewatertreatmentandwasterecyclingwilllikelypresentgrowthopportunitiesarisingfromthegovernment’sefforttopromoteenergysavingandenvironmentalprotection;and6)3January2011StrategyChinaMacroStrategyPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKongTableofContents2011economicoutlook.......