行政腐败的宏观经济学分析3

3(430060):,,,,:,;,GDP,,GDP;,,,,:3,,,,,,,,:(2001),2090,987512570,GDP13.2%16.8%(2003)(1989)(1995)19881992,1998,1992234317,7(2003),,19801988,19881992,19921998,19982002(2001)()10120049©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1998)19921997,1992,5,1996GDP1992,6229(2001),:,(Mauro,1995,1998;MontePapagni,1997;TanziDavoodi,1997),Mauro(1998),68(0,10),GDP015%,Barreto(2000),,TanziDavoodi(1997),Mauro(1998),,,,,Gupta,deMelloSharan(2000),,Barreto(2003),,TanziDavoodi(1997),,,,TanziDavoodi(1997),JohnKaufmmanZido2Lobaton(1999),Friedman,Johnson,KaufmannZoido2Lobaon(2000),Tanzi(1999),Hindricks,KeenMuthoo(1999),,,,,ShleiferVishery(1993),,Barreto(1998),,,(2003):,,,Barreto(1998),(2003),,,(2001),()(),13%23%(),1419%,Friedman,Johnson,KaufmannZoido2Lobaon(2000),Li,XuZou(2000),,,,,,(1996)(2003)201:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:;;,,,ArrowKurz(1970),Barro(1990)g,t,ty=g,y,,,(),,,(),,,1-,g,:ty=g+(1-)g,ty,u(c)=c1--11-(,c),,,:Maxu=0c1--11-e-tdts.t.Ûk=(1-t+t)y-c(1)Ûk,(1),y,ty,(1-t)y,,ty,,,,,,,,T(.),T(0)=0,0T()1,T0,,,,,g(1-T())CES(),,,y=Af[k,(1-)g(1-T())]y=Ak1-[(1-)(1-T())g],,A30120049©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=u(c)+{(1-t+t)Ak1-[(1-)(1-T())g]-c},Hamilton,,t9H9C=U(C)-=0(2)Û=-9H9k=-{(1-t+t)(1-)AK-[(1-)(1-T())g](3)(rc):rc=1{(1-t+t)(1-)Ak-[(1-)(1-T())g]}(4)g=ty,g=tAk1-[(1-)(1-T())g],(gPk)=t11-A11-(1-)1-(1-T())1-(5)(5)(4)rc=1(1-t+t)(1-)A11-t1-(1-)1-(1-T())1--(6)(6),T(),,:9rc9=1(1-)A11-t1-(1-)1-(1-T())1-t-(1-t+t)1-11-+11-T()(7)(7),(7),,,,r0(,=0)ro=1{A11-(1-t)(1-)t1--}ro+P=1A11-(1-t)(1-)t1-(8)(ro+P)11-t=1A11-(1-)t1-(8)(6)rc=(ro+P)(1-)1-(1-T())1-+t1-t(ro+P)(1-)1-(1-T())1--P=ro(1-)1-(1-T())1-+t1-t(1-)1-(1-T())1-+P(1-)1-(1-T())1-+t1-t(1-)1-(1-T())1--1(9)=1+t1-t(1-T())1-(1-)1-(9)r=ro+P(-1)(10)1(,,1),rro401:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(10),,,,,,,,,,,,(),(),,,,1GDP,(123)1GDP()GDP(%)()GDP()19847206.7130.9000.12419858989.116.22.6800.298198610201.49.18.0000.784198711954.59.44.7200.395198814922.311.44.2300.283194198916917.83.94.8200.285875199018598.458.1000.4361188199121662.575.0000.231924199226651.912.83.6500.137587199334560.513.422.0000.6371037199446670.011.834.0000.7291915199557494.910.249.0000.8522262199666850.59.767.8001.01422699199773142.78.856.3000.7702577199876967.27.843.8000.5691820199980579.47.140.9000.5072200200088228.1847.0000.5332871200194346.47.341.0000.43526702002103553.68220.0002.125326920031166949.143.0000.3682728:19841999(2003),19992003,19881999(2001),19992003,GDPGDP50120049©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()23GDP12,1,19841988,,1986,,198819881992,,19921998,,19982003,,2002,2,19882003,19881992199219981998200312,,3,2090123,2090,()601:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(CZZCGDP),GDP(SHJE)(GYFB),,,GDP(GDP),,,GDP(CZSR)221234CONSTANT141354(11692)-21539(01708)-31938(11046)01732(01860)GYFB5199910-4(0101)5144610-4(0100)5181710-4(0100)SHJE01853(01410)GDP7171710-2(01045)CZSR11212(01048)11259(01052)1100(0105)R201195019910199301981,GDP,,GDP,,(TanziDavoodi,1997;Barreto,2000),,,,,,,,,()19842003,,(GDZC)GDP(CZZC)(SHJE)(FBJE)(,2003),1980,,(GDPGDP),,(YSWZC)370120049©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(11999)81809(31643)81782(61637)71506(21416)101967(31562)CZZC71228(0123)01104(01266)FBJE-01959(11639)-01939(11684)-01834(41559)-01716(21350)-11674(31909)YSWZC-9163(01036)-1145(01028)-1104(01035)GDZC01159(01028)R20114001166011520184801111:GYFB,3,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,,,:,,;,,GDP,,GDP;,,,,,,,,1996:,2,2003::,1,801:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.::,,2003:,10,2001:19901999,1,2003::,11,2001:,4,2003:,()5,1989:1988,5,1995:,2,1998:,7Arrow,K.,andKurz,1970,PublicInvestment,theRateofReturnandOptimalFiscalPolicy,JohnHopkinsUniversityPress.Barro,R.,1990,GovernmentSpendinginaSimpleModelofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy98,S103125.Barreto,R.A.,Alm,I.,2003,Corruption,OptimalTaxationandGrowth,PublicFinanceReview,Vol.31,No.3:207239.Barreto,R.A.,1998,EndogenuousCorruptioninaNeoclassicalGrowthModel,TheEuropeanEconomicReview:3560.DeMonte,Papagni,1997,PublicExpenditure,Corruption,andEconomicGrowth:TheCaseofItaly,JournalofPublicEconomics,69:263279.Friedman,Johnson.S.,Kaufman,D.,Zoido2Lobaton,2000,DodgingtheGrabbingHand:TheDeterminantsofUnofficialActivityin69Countries,JournalofPublicEconomics,Vol.76:459493.Gupta,deMello,Sharan,2000,CorruptionandMilitarySpending,IMFWorkingPaper.Hindricks,Keen.M.,Muthoo,D.,1999,Corruption,ExtortionandEvasion,JournalofPublicEconomics,Vol.74:395430.Johnson,Kaufman,andZoido2Lobaton,1999,Corruption,PublicFinancesandtheUnofficialEconomy,WorldBankDiscussionPaperSeriesNo.2169.Li