论积极财政政策效应与我国经济增长方式转变

19551976199820012000a2000b2001b200120012001aM1909194949%51%2001151SolowResidualE.F.Denison1967195019623.3%42%(TotalFactorProductivityTFP)4.08%64%LKaY∆−+∆+∆=∆)1(αα1YKLαaLKYa∆−−∆−∆=∆)1(αα220005.0≥∆∆YαY∆∆α0.51953199320012197819990.023439.08%a∆IS-LM2050ArrowKurz1970BlinderSolow19742080Barro,R.&XavierSala-I-Martin1992Barro,R.1990AKStiglitz1988Devarajan,SwaroopZou1996AKAKY(t)=AkY'(t)=A20001781862DevarajanXieZou19972000AlfredGreiner1996Spillover(PublicInfrastructure)IS20002001198019992001b199820002.36%3.05%2.90%9020012001CobbDouglasuntttttteFFFFAYnααααΛ321321=3YtnttttFFFF,,,,321Λ123nntAαααα,,,,,321ΛutYuFFFFAYntntttt++++++=lnlnlnlnlnln332211ααααΛ4AlfredGreiner(1996):'FiscalPolicyandEconomicGrowth',AshgatePublishingLtdPress,p815.20003,lnln111α=∂∂=ttFYEΛ,lnln222α=∂∂=ttFYEnnttnFYEα=∂∂=lnln1%3,lnln)3(1)3(1)3(1−−−=∂∂=αttFYEΛ,lnln)3(2)3(2)3(2−−−=∂∂=αttFYE)3()3()3(lnln−−−=∂∂=ntntnFYEα200026219781999OLSlnY=7.0731+0.4148ln+0.3147ln-0.4262ln+0.0216ln-0.0288ln5ttF1tF2tF3tF4tF5(3.4805)(1.8736)(1.0189)(-1.8585)(0.1797)(-0.5562)R2=0.9985DW=2.0557SE=0.0489F=1020.471YGDPEttttttFFFFF54321,,,,1t=0.4148E2t=0.3147E3t=0.4262E4t=0.0216E5t=0.0288lnY=9.40460.3684ln+0.6336+0.2304ln0.2106ln+0.00075ln6t)3(1−tF)3(2−tF)3(3−tF)3(4−tF)3(5−tF(3.3659)(1.2619)(1.4382)(1.0186)(1.2574)(0.1229)R2=0.9977DW=1.3518SE=0.0569F=557.4400GDP3EtY)3(5)3(4)3(3)3(2)3(1,,,,−−−−−tttttFFFFF1(t-3)=0.3684E2(t-3)=0.6336E3(t-3)=0.2340E4(t-3)=0.2106E5(t-3)=0.0075321CobbDouglas32143.347827.97176.62302001199820002.192.162.151.041.031.011998200119982000436002001150019981000627500.651.5119996001010654.751.96200015001.601998144201.3GDP0.2319993600.26200034.2%GDP0.3019984370.62199915%6260.832000800119982000330.6336Gap51.2.3.1.199820012.63.THEEFFECTOFPOSITIVEFISCALPOLICYANDTRANSFORMATIONOFECONOMYGROWTHPATTERNZhangBinXiongShaoyuAbstractIthasbeendemonstratedinmanythesesthevitaleffectoffiscalpolicyinlongeconomygrowthandthetransformationofeconomygrowthpattern.Inthepaperweanalyzetheeffectofpositivefiscalpolicyofournationanditsfunctioninpromotingtransformationofournationaleconomygrowthpatternfromthestructureoffiscalexpenditure.Wediscusstheinstitutioninhibitioninpromotingthetransformationandoffersomesuggestiononfiscalpolicydesigning.KeyWordPositiveFiscalPolicyEconomyGrowthPattern2000620002000200020011998200120012M19912000a22000b62001a82001b6200020002001122002200020012000AlfredGreiner(1996):'FiscalPolicyandEconomicGrowth',AshgatePublishingLtdPressArrow,K.J.andM.Kurz(1970):PublicInvestment,theRateofReturn,andOptimalFiscalPolicy,JohnHopkingPress.7Barro,R1990.'GovernmentSpendinginaSimpleModelofEndogenousGrowth',JournalofPoliticalEconomy,98:S103~125.Barro,R.&XavierSola-I-Martin,(1992),'PublicFinanceinModelofEconomicGrowth',ReviewofAmericanEconomicStudies,Oct.,1992.Stiglitz,J.E.(1988):EconomicsofthePublicSector,W.W.Norton&Company8