农村留守老人的收入状况研究

20095No15,2009(177)POPULATIONJOURNAL(Tot1No.177)(,100872),,,,,;;C91316Adoi10.3969/j.issn.1004-129X.2009.05.0061004-129X(2009)05-0032-062008-11-24:(06XNA016)(1975-),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[1]1790,[2],,,[3],,[4],,20042008,:,,,,23,,,11,6317%,,1613%,,1313%1/41563.7/203.110616.38713.320.360.9162.5652100:.2008[Z].,212/5,4213%1000625,2/52()0162.51-50010916.7501-100015123.11001-200015623.92001-30008412.93001-4000324.94001-5000304.65001-1000059910000162.5653100317713%,7315%350426.977.347925.573.526013.939.9412.26.3/27414.642.026914.341.380.41.2321.74.9100.51.51877100287.911,[5],,,,,,,,,,21,,1949,,1978,,,,2090,,,,33,,,,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:I=W(a)+R(1),dWda0,dIda0,dRda=0I,W,a,R(1),R,W,,,,I,,S=I-C(2)(1)(2),S=W(a)+R-C(3),dSda0,dCda=0S,C43,R-C0;,W+R-C0,,,,,:Y=Y1+ra=1Sa(4),Y,Y1,e,r(3)(4),Y=Y1+r(R-C)+ra=1Wa(5),Y1,ra=1Wa0,Wr,r,,Y1ra=1Wa,W(a),1211,,,,20042008,2008,311%,,4,,2008,542007()NStd.Diviation60-643025130520965-691592130154570-74149393182075-79151641225180+141025390923285933358:.2008[Z].:I=9126-105.3a(8.37)(-6.28)RSquare=0.063F,0100,,01005352003()NStd.Deviation60-643092475277265-692222325216970-741600239195975-791204125130880+79755836227012192401:.2004[Z].:I=10690-124.9a(14.98)(-11.85)RSquare=0.103F,0100,,010020042008,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,,,,6,,,,,62007()NStd.Deviation297524288926347624172350206383320872272460266252559821,,7,,1361,,2792,,15507()NStd.Deviation2817392373819081216311361186221320001.31,,20084,,,,,,,11,63,21,,312/5,,,,,,41,,51,,,,,,[][1],.[J].,2004,(6):44-52.[2].[J].,2006,(1):46-49.[3].[J].,2006,(4):14-18.[4].[J].,2006,(4):118-121.[5].[J].(),2007,(6):147-156.[]StudyontheIncomeofLeft-aloneElderlyinRuralAreasZHOUZhu-ping(SociologyandDemographySchoolofRenminUniversity,Beijing,100872,China)Abstract:Theproblemofleft-aloneelderlyinruralareasisatransitionalproblemduringChinassocialtransitionprocess.ItisalsoalongtermproblembasedonChinashugepopulationsize.Theoreticallywehaveprovedthattheincomeofleft-aloneelderlydiminisheswiththeirageincrease.Empiricallyproofshavealsoshownthenegativerelevancebetweenageandincome.Theinferenceisthatthelifeofleft-aloneelderlyinruralareaswoulddeteriorateiftherewerenoexternalsocialpolicyintervention.Thegovernmentshouldtakeitasalongtermstrategytobuildasafetynetforleft-aloneelderlyinruralareasbecauseitisabasiccondi2tionforChinasmodernization.KeyWords:ruralpopulation,left-aloneelderly,marginalincome73