微观结构视角下人民币汇率形成机制改革探讨(1)

2005-07-25http①2005721http①19781993199419940935①200572119967199411!1.②24p.152③196①②③http①3.20055181997②6p.1252935①②2003412005626.20056271200320032563012000WTO1199310.89%200478.05%1999200070%1199419951996199719981999200020012002200320041721820760268893063331225336203649139852451385284158856.114264651193301264913088140611481518850221072984245939.99AB%24.7631.3634.7041.2941.9241.8240.6047.3048.9856.4878.05CD%69.5763.4445.9988.6574.1640.6326.26120.0561.72100.4219932003http①4935①200572110p.474.2003200551.M.2000.2J.20021113-19.3.J.2002719-24.4.M.2005.5.J.2005351135-142.6.M.2001.7.J.2004237-40.8.J.2004824-26.9.J.2003864-65.10.J.2002546-48.TheReforLofRMBExchangeRateMechanisLintheMarketMicrostructurePerspectiveHESi-jiangLUOHong-xiaDepartmentofFinanceCollegeofEconomicsZhejiangUniversityHangzhou310027ChinaAbstractThetraditionalexchangeratetheorycannolongerexplaintheradicalfluctuationsoftheexchangerates.In1990sthemarketmicrostructuretheoryofforeignexchangewasusedtoexplainthefluctuationsoftheexchangeratesandprovedeffectiveinempiricaltests.Itbecameafocusof596attentionwithresearchers.Withinsightsintotheparticipationbodytransactionmechanismandmainpartsoftransactionintheexchangemarketitofferedananalysisofthefactorsthatcausedradicalfluctuationsintheexchangerates.Itprovideduswithaninsightinanalyzingtheexchangerates.TheanalyticthinkingofthetheorycanwellserveasaninterpretationofthestabilityoftheRMBexchangerateeversincetheforeignexchangesystemreformbeganin1994.Chinasforeignexchangemarketisadouble-trackmarketconsistingofawholesalemarketamongdesignatedforeignexchangebanksandaretailmarketbetweenbanksandcustomersenterprisesandindividuals.Obviouslythereexistsagapbetweenthetwomarkets.Themainpartsofthetransactionsinthetwomarketsareverysimilarintermsoftransactionvolumesandthenatureofpropertyright.Inthewholesalemarkettheoperatingroomsofstate-ownedbanksandthecentralbankpossessthemajorityofthetransactionvolumewhileintheretailmarketstate-ownedenterprisesandstate-heldcompaniespossessthemajorityofthetransactionvolume.Thereforewecanseethatthemainpartsoftransactionsinthetwomarketsareeitherstate-ownedorstate-held.Themarkettransactionvarietyisstillfarbehindtherequirementofthemarketizationoftheexchangerates.Basedonthisanalysiswecandrawaconclusionthataforeignexchangemarketexistsanditiseasytoputitundercontrol.ThisexplainsthestabilityoftheRMBexchangeratesincetheforeignexchangesystemreformstartedin1994.HoweverwehavetoadmitthatthenegativeeffectsofmaintainingnominalexchangeratesofRMBarebecomingmoreandmoreobviousandthatitisimperativetoimplementanRMBexchangeratereform.Sinceitrequirestimetoaccomplishthepropertyrightreformofthemainpartsoftransactionaswellastoimprovethetradingvarietyoftheforeignexchangemarkettheexchangeratereformhastobebasedonthreeprinciplesinitiativecontrolandstep-by-stepprogress.Indeterminingthepathtofollowandmakingstrategicdecisionsweshouldstartwiththemicrostructureofthemarket.Thereformshouldfocusonthefollowingaspectsreinforcingthepropertyrightreformofthemainpartsofthemicro-transactionmarketbroadeningthescopeandthebasisoftheforeignexchangemarketstrengtheningthefundamentalsthatdeterminetheRMBexchangeratespromotingtheopeningofcapitalaccountsimplementingamoreelasticRMBexchangeratesystem.KeywordsRMBexchangeratesreformforeignexchangemarketmicrostructuretheory200591215462201507034849183213199920076935