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/2011.8STUDIESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCE,,。,(IMF),,,IMF,IMF。,。,。、IMF2040,IMF。,,IMF。80,IMF。90,IMF,IMF。,,IMF,,IMF。IMF(Gallagher,2011a,2011b)。1.:(194570),,IMF,,。,。IMF,,。,IMF。Helleiner(1994),IMF:(EmbeddedLiberalism)。,,,,———IMF:,,。:,。IMF,IMF、。,:;,、;,。;,;。:IMF:F831:A50/2011.8STUDIESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCE。60,。。,,。1945~1947,,1947。2.:(19802008)1958,,,,,、,2070,,。,,1986,1712。80,IMF,IMF,90,IMF。,IMF:70,。,。IMF。80,,,、IMF。3.:(2011)IMF90。,IMF,。,,。2005,IMF,。,IMF、。20114,IMF,。,IMF:。、、,IMF,,。IMF。,IMF,。IMF。,IMF。,,,IMF(IMF,2010),2010,144/、124、94、86、120,1995119/IMF,(、、)/,IMF。、IMF1.,,。,2009,,(1)。,:。1998,。,,,。,51/2011.8STUDIESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCE:IMF1、()。。2009,,,,、,,,。。(FDI)、,,(Portfolioinflows,、、)(2)。,。,。,IMF,,。2.,,,(CapitalFlowManagementMeasures)。、、,。IMF,,/()、(、)()。,。(、LTV、)。,/,,,、。IMF,,,。,,。,,(),。,,,,(3)。,Ostryetal.(2011)IMF(:)52/2011.8STUDIESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCE:IMF3IMF !#$%&’()*+%,CFMs)()-(CFMs),,。,IMF。、IMF,IMF,IMF。IMF,,IMF。,,,IMF,。IMF,IMF,,,。,。,,。,,。IMF,,,。,,。,,。,,,,。,,,。(Gallagher,2011),2002~2007,33%43%,GDP14%15%,2007,,25%32%,2009,40%,。,。IMF,,。,,,,。,,。,,,,,。、53/2011.8STUDIESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCE,。,。。IMF,,。,IMF。,,IMF,,。(G24),,。,,,,IMF。、,,,。,。,,:,,、、、,,。,,。,20106,。,2010,,,。,,。IMF。1.。IMFOlivierBlanchardIMF,,,。,。2011,,1342,、、。,。,,,,、、、、。2.,、。,,。,、,、。,。,,,,。,,,、。3.,。,,,54/2011.8STUDIESOFINTERNATIONALFINANCE。,。,。,,,,,。4.。2010,,,20093620105063,20114,2010。,,。,、,,。,、。5.,。,。,,,,,,。,。,。,、。6.。,,。,,。,。,,,。():[1]Helleiner,E.StatesandtheRe-emergenceofGlobalFinance[M].Ithaca:CornellUniversityPress,1994.[2]IMF.WorldEconomicOutlook[R].2010.[3]IMF.RecentExperienceinManagingCapitalInflowsCross-CuttingThemesandPossiblePolicyFramework[R].2011.[4]Gallagher,K.RegainingControl?CapitalControlsandtheGlobalFinancialCrisis[R].PoliticalEconomyResearchInstituteofUMASSWorkingPaper,No.250,2011(2).[5]Gallagher,K.TheIMF,CapitalControlsandDevelopingCountries[J].Economic&PoliticalWeekly,2011(5):12~16.[6]Ostry,J.,Ghosh,A.,Habermeier,K.,Chamon,M.,Qureshi,M.,Reinhardt,D.CapitalInflows:TheRoleofControls[R].2011.[7]Ostry,J.,Ghosh,A.,Habermeier,K.,Chamon,M.,Qureshi,M.,Reinhardt,D.ManagingCapitalInflows:WhatToolstoUse[R].2011.Abstract:Inthewakeofthefinancialcrisis,theemergingmarketeconomiesareexperiencinganotherroundofcapitalinflowsurges.ThispaperbrieflyreviewsthehistoryofIMF’spositiononcapitalcontrolsandanalyzestherecentlyproposedframeworkonhowtomanagecapitalinflowforEMeconomies.DrawingontheIMFframework,theauthorprovidesinsightsonhowChinamaybestmanageitscapitalinflow,includingtakingacombinationofmeasuresasopposedtoonemeasureatatime,performingcost-and-benefitanalysesoncapitalcontrols,steppingupdomesticfinancialmarket’sstructuralreform,coordinatingregulatorypoliciesonthemanagementofdomesticandforeigncurrencies,strengtheningpolicyconstraintsoncountrieswithcapitaloutflowandenhancingcoordinatedpoliciesandinformationexchangeamongEMcountries.Keywords:IMF;CapitalControls;EmergingMarketEconomies55
本文标题:后危机时代对跨境资金流动管理的思考_兼评IMF关于管理资本流入的政策
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