IEA天然气黄金时代的黄金法则(WEO2012_GoldenRulesRep

WorldEnergyOutlookSpecialReportonUnconventionalGasGoldenRulesforaGoldenAgeofGasGoldenRulesforaGoldenAgeofGasGoldenRulesforaGoldenAgeofGasWorldEnergyOutlookSpecialReportonUnconventionalGasNaturalgasispoisedtoenteragoldenage,butthisfuturehingescriticallyonthesuccessfuldevelopmentoftheworld’svastunconventionalgasresources.NorthAmericanexperienceshowsunconventionalgas–notablyshalegas–canbeexploitedeconomically.Manycountriesarelininguptoemulatethissuccess.Butsomegovernmentsarehesitant,orevenactivelyopposed.Theyarerespondingtopublicconcernsthatproductionmightinvolveunacceptableenvironmentalandsocialdamage.Thisreport,intheWorldEnergyOutlookseries,treatstheseaspirationsandanxietieswithequalseriousness.Itfeaturestwonewcases:aGoldenRulesCase,inwhichthehighestpracticablestandardsareadopted,gainingindustrya“sociallicencetooperate”;anditscounterpart,inwhichthetideturnsagainstunconventionalgasasconstraintsprovetoodifficulttoovercome.Thereport:„Describestheunconventionalgasresourceandwhatisinvolvedinexploitingit.„Identifiesthekeyenvironmentalandsocialrisksandhowtheycanbeaddressed.„SuggeststheGoldenRulesnecessarytorealisetheeconomicandenergysecuritybenefitswhilemeetingpublicconcerns.„Spellsouttheimplicationsofcompliancewiththeserulesforgovernmentsandindustry,includingondevelopmentcosts.„Assessestheimpactofthetwocasesonglobalgastradepatternsandpricing,energysecurityandclimatechange.Formoreinformation,andthefreedownloadofthisreport,pleasevisit::33:37INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),anautonomousagency,wasestablishedinNovember1974.Itsprimarymandatewas–andis–two-fold:topromoteenergysecurityamongstitsmembercountriesthroughcollectiveresponsetophysicaldisruptionsinoilsupply,andprovideauthoritativeresearchandanalysisonwaystoensurereliable,affordableandcleanenergyforits28membercountriesandbeyond.TheIEAcarriesoutacomprehensiveprogrammeofenergyco-operationamongitsmembercountries,eachofwhichisobligedtoholdoilstocksequivalentto90daysofitsnetimports.TheAgency’saimsincludethefollowingobjectives:„Securemembercountries’accesstoreliableandamplesuppliesofallformsofenergy;inparticular,throughmaintainingeffectiveemergencyresponsecapabilitiesincaseofoilsupplydisruptions.„Promotesustainableenergypoliciesthatspureconomicgrowthandenvironmentalprotectioninaglobalcontext–particularlyintermsofreducinggreenhouse-gasemissionsthatcontributetoclimatechange.„Improvetransparencyofinternationalmarketsthroughcollectionandanalysisofenergydata.„Supportglobalcollaborationonenergytechnologytosecurefutureenergysuppliesandmitigatetheirenvironmentalimpact,includingthroughimprovedenergyefficiencyanddevelopmentanddeploymentoflow-carbontechnologies.„Findsolutionstoglobalenergychallengesthroughengagementanddialoguewithnon-membercountries,industry,internationalorganisationsandotherstakeholders.IEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKorea(Republicof)LuxembourgNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA.Pleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat©OECD/IEA,2012InternationalEnergyAgency9ruedelaFédération75739ParisCedex15,France(OCE)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency.ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyFatihBirol,ChiefEconomistoftheIEA.Theanalysiswasco-ordinatedbyChristianBessonandTimGould.PrincipalcontributorstothisreportwereMarcoBaroni,LauraCozzi,IanCronshaw,CapellaFesta,MatthewFrank,TimurGül,PawełOlejarnik,DavidWilkinsonandPeterWood.OthercontributorsincludedAmosBromhead,DafyddElis,TimurTopalgoekceliandAkiraYanagisawa.SandraMooneyprovidedessentialsupport.RobertPriddlecarriededitorialresponsibility.ThereportbenefitedfromvaluablecommentsandfeedbackfromotherexpertswithintheIEA,includingBoDiczfalusy,DidierHoussinandLaszloVarro.TheCommunicationandInformationOfficewasinstrumentalinbringingthebooktocompletion.ThanksalsogotoDebraJustusforproofreadingthetext.Ahigh-levelworkshoporganisedbytheIEAandhostedbythePolishMinistryofEconomyandco-hostedbytheMexicanMinistryofEnergywasheldon7March2012inWarsawtogatheressentialinputtothisstudy.Theworkshopparticipantshavecontributedvaluablenewinsights,feedbackanddataforthisanalysis.Moredetailsmaybefoundat:SalehAbdurrahmanNationalEnergyCouncilofIndonesiaMarcoArcelliEnelTristanAsprayExxonMobilKamelBennaceurSchlumbergerRobertoBoccaWorldEconomicForumClayBretchesNat