中国崛起_地区权力转移与东亚安全_从1949年到21世纪

中国崛起地区权力转移与东亚安全:从1949年到21世纪*S.!!!60,,1949~1950,,,1978~2008,,21,,!;;;!S.(RobertS.Ross),!D82!!A!!1006-9550(2009)11-0036-08*∀#,∀#,S!!60,21,,,,,60,,,60,,,:,∃36∃!!200911,,,,%1949,21(1949~1950)!!,,1866~1870,,,,&∋(1949,,1949,,19,,,,1949~1950,1949,,,1950,,,1954,19,1949~1950,,&∋,,,1950~1989,,∃∃∃,∃∃∃,∃∃∃&∋,,∃37∃%(,RobertGilpin,WarandChangeinWorldPolitics,NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,1983;RobertGilpin,&TheoryofHegemonicWar,∋JournalofInterdisciplinaryHistory,Vo.l18,No.4,1988,pp591-613;A.F.K.Organsk,iWorldPolitics,NewYork:AlfredA.Knop,f1968,pp.338-376;JackLevy,&PowerTransitionTheoryandtheRiseofChina,∋inRobertS.RossandZhuFeng,eds.,ChinasAscent:Power,Security,andtheFutureofInternationalPolitics,Ithaca:CornellUniversityPress,2008&∋,A.J.P.Taylor,TheStrugglefortheMasteryofEurope:1848-1918,NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,1980&∋%1954,,20602050,,,(,,,207019791,&∋)2070,,,1975,197920,∗,,1958~1960&∋,2060,,70,,,20601989,19,19754,,,,197811,∀#,197812,+,,,,1949~1950,,,2060,,,,,&∋,,∃38∃!:194921%()∗+,ThomasChristensen,&Threats,Assurances,andtheLastChanceforPeace:TheLessonsofMaosKoreanWarTelegrams,∋InternationalSecurity,Vo.l17,No.1,1992,pp122-154;SergeiGoncharov,JohnLewis,andLitaiXue,UncertainPartners:Stalin,Mao,andtheKoreanWar,PaloAlto:StanfordUniversityPress,1995;ChenJian,ChinasRoadtotheKoreanWar:TheMakingoftheSino-AmericanConfrontation,NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress,1996.,:∀#,:,2004;GongL,i&TensionacrosstheTaiwanStraitinthe1950s:ChineseStrategyandTactics,∋inRobertS.RossandJiangChangbin,eds.,Re-examiningtheColdWar:U.S.-ChinaDiplomacy,1954-1973,Cambridge:AsiaCenter,HarvardUniversity,2001,:∀#,:,2000;:∀#,:,2002;PriscillaRoberts,ed.,BehindtheBambooCurtain:China,Vietnam,andtheWorldbeyondAsia,PaloAlto:StanfordUniversityPress,2006,:∀,1969-1979#,:,1992;RobertS.Ross,NegotiatingCooperation:TheUnitedStatesandChina,1969-1989,PaloAlto:StanfordUniversityPress,1995RobertS.Ross,TheIndochinaTangle:ChinasVietnamPolicy,1975-1979,NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress,1988.,JohnW.Garver,ProtractedContest:SinoIndianRivalryintheTwentiethCentury,Seattle:UniversityofWashingtonPress,2002!2009111969,2080%19792,,,10,30,,,(,1949,1989,,19895,,,1949~1950,,&∋,,,()),,,;(,),1949,(1978~2008)!!197812,30,10%,1990,&∋∗,∃39∃%()∗,:∀(1917-1991)#,:,2007;OddArneWestad,BrothersinArms:TheRiseandFalloftheSino-SovietAlliance,1945-1963,PaloAlto:StanfordUniversityPress,1999;YangKuisong,&TheSino-SovietBorderClashof1969:FromZhenbaoIslandtoSino-AmericanRapprochement,∋ColdWarHistory,Vo.l1,No.1,2000,pp21-52;VitalyKozyrev,&SovietPolicytowardtheUnitedStatesandChina,∋inWilliamC.Kirby,RobertS.Ross,andGongL,ieds.,NormalizationofU.S.-ChinaRelations:AnInternationalHistory,Cambridge:AsiaCenter,HarvardUniversity,2005;ElizabethWishnick,MendingFences:TheEvolutionofMoscowsChinaPolicyfromBrezhnevtoYeltsin,Seattle:UniversityofWashingtonPress,2001RobertS.Ross,&ChinaandtheCambodianPeaceProcess:TheValueofCoerciveDiplomacy,∋AsianSurvey,Vo.l31,No.12,1991,pp1170-1185MichaelLeifer,&VietnamsForeignPolicyinthePost-SovietEra:CopingwithVulnerability,∋inRobertS.Ross,ed.,EastAsiainTransition:TowardaNewRegionalOrder,Armonk:M.E.Sharpe,1995.&∋,RobertG.Sutter,ChinasRiseinAsia:PromisesandPerils,Lanham:RowmanandLittlefield,2005;RobertS.RossandZhuFeng,eds.,ChinasAscent:Power,Security,andtheFutureofInternationalPolitics,2008;WilliamW.HellerandThomasG.Rawsk,ieds.,ChinasRiseandtheBalanceofInfluenceinAsia,Pittsburgh:UniversityofPittsburghPress,2007;[]:∀:#,:,2008;:∀#,:,2005;:∀#,:,2007;:∀#,:,2002;:∀#,:,2004,1949~19502040,,,,,,,197830%,2006,,,,,2010,&∋,,,∃∃∃,,(30,,,,,,,)∗&∋,&∋,,,&∋2008,,&∋,&∋,,,,,,∃40∃!:194921%()∗,EvelynGoh,&MeetingtheChinaChallenge:TheU.S.inSoutheastAsianRegionalSecurityStrategies,∋PolicyStudiesMonograph,No.16,Washington,D.C.,East-WestCenter,2005;RobertS.Ross,&BalanceofPowerPoliticsandtheRiseofChina:AccommodationandBalancinginEastAsia,∋SecurityStudies,Vo.l15,No.3,2006,pp355-395,DennisJ.Blasko,TheChineseArmyToday,NewYork:Routledge,2004;SusanM.Puska,&RoughbutReadyForceProjection:AnAssessmentofRecentPLATraining,∋inAndrewJ.ScobelandLarryM.Wortze,leds.,ChinasGrowingMilitaryPower:PerspectivesonSecurity,BallisticMissiles,andConventionalCapabilities,Carlisle:StrategicStudiesInstituted,U.S.ArmyWarCollege,2002,Byung-KookKim,&BetweenRisingChina,HegemonicAmerica,andNorthKorea:SouthKoreasHedging,∋inRRobertS.RossandZhuFeng,eds.,ChinasAscent:Power,Security,andtheFutureofInternationalPolitics,2008;EricV.Larson,NormanD.Levin,SeonhaeBaik,BogdanSavych,AmbivalentAllies∃AStudyofSouthKoreanAttitudestowardtheU.S.,SantaMonica:RAND,2004RobertS.Ross,&TaiwansFadingIndependenceMovement,∋ForeignAffairs,Vo.l85,No.1,2006,pp141-148.!200911:,&∋∃∃∃∃∃∃,&∋,2080&∋,1992,,19491975,,2070,,,2050&∋,,,%,(170,1949∃∃∃,,,30,(),,,194519506,19501,(DeanAcheson)&∋),,,,,,,,,,(2009)!!1949,21,∃41∃%(),&MemorandumofConversation,bytheSecretaryofState,∋January5,1950,U.S.DepartmentofState,ForeignRelationsoftheUnitedStates(FRUS),1950,Vo.l6,Washington,D.C.:GovernmentPrintingOffice,1976,pp.260-261;&MemorandumofConversation,bytheSecretaryofState,∋December29,1949,ForeignRelati