近48年西南地区降水量和雨日的气候变化特征-张琪

．48J．2014332372383doi10．7522/j．issn．1000-0534．2013．00032．2012-08-132013-03-06GYHY2010060532012CB4172002008NG0009201011985、[e-mail][e-mail]481－221．6100722．6100721960200797、。“”。、—“——”“”。48、、16。17。、。1000-0534201402-0372-12P426．6Adoi10．7522/j．issn．1000-0534．2013．000321、、、。。。1、、。21990。710。32090。4－5、2．8、。61950198541080%。。。750。81957200667975%。50%。9、、、。1033220144高原气象PLATEAUMETEOＲOLOGYVol．33No．2April，2014。1119612004、、。12100、、、421。、、、、13－14。。2、、、9719601200712。97＞0．1mm。0．1～10mm10～25mm25～50mm50～200mm。15。。MonteCarlo。α=0．1、α=0．05、α=0．01、、。33．11“”、、、1600mm1300mm。800mm。148mmFig．1ThedistributionoftheaveragedtotalprecipitationonSouthwestChinainlast48years．Unitmm．Theshadedareasindicatethehighvalueofprecipitation2。300mm250mm150mm。900mm400mm500mm。350mm150mm。。60mm20mm。3732482mmabcdFig．2ThespatialdistributionofprecipitationonSouthwestChinaindifferentseasons．Unitmm．aspringbsummercautumndwinter．Theshadedareasindicatethehighvalueofprecipitation、。3．2319602007。348－0．053。32006911mm196519681973198319991110mm。319602007Fig．3ThetemporalvariationofprecipitationonSouthwestChinafrom1960to200747333419602007abcdFig．4ThetemporalvariationofprecipitationonSouthwestChinaindifferentseasonsfrom1960to2007．aspringbsummercautumndwinter519602007MorletabFig．5TheexponentialdistributionaandvariancechangebofprecipitationonSouthwestChinainsummerfrom1960to2007fromMorletwavelet168．9%。1999200619992006。4573248、、。－0．33－0．76mm·a－10．320．3mm·a－10．05487．6mm·10a－13．0mm·10a－1。50%、、。5。5161611．8%。2060、80、90212070、80902005。3．36。6a400mm350mm。。6b6mmabcdFig．6ThespatialdistributionofdifferentprecipitationintensityonSouthwestChina．Unitmm．arainstormbheavyraincmoderateraindlightrain．Theshadedareasindicatethehighvalueofprecipitation67333、350mm。、。7340mm1/3。48－0．310．05－0．45mm·a－1104．5mm。。、5、16311．5%、10．7%28．1%。44．18—“——”、。“”230200180。100、—120。719602007mmabcdFig．7ThetemporalvariationofdifferentannualprecipitationintensityonSouthwestChinafrom1960to2007．Unitmm．arainstormbheavyraincmoderateraindlightrain77324881dFig．8ThesameasFig．1butforrainday．Unitd。9—“——”。50。50。“”。70。60。“”。——92dFig．9ThesameasFig．2butforrainday．Unitd87333103Fig．10ThesameasFig．3butforrainday50、—45。4．248－0．350．05－0．19d·a－11．9d·10a－1209010。196919791988200620061961196419681983165。2007。11。5022。8、、、－0．39－0．590．011．5d·10a－1。Morlet。121710．1%。2060、80、90114Fig．11ThesameasFig．4butforrainday973248125dFig．12ThesameasFig．5butforraindayunitdinsummer136dFig．13ThesameasFig．6butforrainday．Unitd2070、80902005。200716。08333147Fig．14ThesameasFig．7butforrainday4．313。1326。4、。、。。、。—“——”。、。、、4。、。、。。1448、－0．32－0．350．01－1．6d·10a－1－0．3d·10a－1。、183248。17。Morlet1611．9%。5971“”2001。、、。2、。、。。3、—“——”“”“”。2090917。4、。16。、、。1．60J．2012384419－424．2．50J．2010329115－120．3．J．2009316592－599．4．49J．200322165－70．5．J．20062561120－1126．6．J．2003284644－649．7．50J．201433143－54doi10．7522/j．issn．1000-0534．2012．00177．8．50J．2010275766－772．9．50J．2011665619－630．10．50J．20113041027－1033．11．J．2007354351－356．12．J．201128337－42．13．M．19911－5．14．“”J．2011304289－295．15．1004J．1995534432－439．16．J．2008244367－373．17．J．2008537829－832．28333ClimaticVariationofＲainfallandＲainDayinSouthwestChinaforLast48YearsZHANGQi1－2LIYueqing21．SichuanProvincialMeteorologicalObservationChengdu610072China2．InstituteofPlateauMeteorologyChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationChengdu610072ChinaAbstractBasedonthedailyrainfalldatasetof97stationsontheSouthwestChinafortheperiodof19602007climaticvariationofrainfallandraindayareinvestigated．Theresultsshowthattotalprecipitationareex-cessiveinEastandfewinwestoftheSouthwestChinaandsummerraindayisexcessiveinthewestandfewintheeastbuttheoppositeisexistentinwinter．Itcanbealsofoundthattotalprecipitationdecreasesinlast48years．Additionalthespringandwinterprecipitationincreaseoverthemostregions．Butinsummerandau-tumntheprecipitationdecreases．Atthesametimetheseasonaltrendsofraindayandprecipitationaresimilar．Theraindaysofmoderaterainandlightrainhaveobviousdecreasingtrend．Butithasincreasingtrendsforbothrainstormandheavyraininlast48years．KeywordsSouthwestChinaPrecipitationＲaindayClimaticchange383248