RB内部估值模型教程(PPT-307页)

Documentnumber1ContentExecutiveSummary执行摘要A.IntroductiontovaluationB.Discountcashflow(DCF)B1.CashflowB2.DiscountrateandWACC（WeightedAverageCostofCapital的缩写。WACC代表公司整体平均资金成本，可用来衡量一个项目是否值得投资；项目的回报必须不低于WACC）B3.Terminalvalue终值B4.CommonDCFQ&AC.ComparableC1.ComparablemethodologyC2.ListedpeercomparableC3.TransactioncomparableE.RealOptionF.OthervaluationtopicsF1.InvestmentprocessandmanagementF2.DatagatheringF3.DefinearelevantvaluationrangeF4.SensitivityanalysisF5.IndustryspecificvaluationinsightG.AppendixDocumentnumber2ExecutivesummaryDocumentnumber3A.IntroductiontovaluationDocumentnumber4Valuationtoolswilltypicallyrevolvearoundtwotypesofmethodologies:FutureCashFlowsandHistoricalMarketPricesFinancialstatementsandanalysts’researchMacroeconomicandstockmarketdataCompanyValueDCFmethodDiscountedDividendmethodComparablecompaniesmethodAsset-basedmethodsDifferentvaluationmethodsManagementJudgmentRealoptionmethodComparabletransactionsmethodDocumentnumber5MakingagoodvaluationrequiresagoodunderstandingofthetargetThereisnoblack-boxtomakeavaluation没有暗箱操作做出报价Valuationisinformation•Classicmethodologyaremostlyused•Advancedcomputersystemsareemerging•Inputdatamustbecarefullydocumented(traceability)•ValuationstartswithaonepageSWOTanalysisofthetargetValuationisamatterofcommonsense•Formulasshallnotreplaceyourbestjudgment•Keepaskingkeyquestionsabouttarget•BeasrigorousaspossibleateverystepoftheprocessSource:RolandBergerDocumentnumber6GettingstartedwithvaluationWhatisthepurposeofvaluatingassets?Whatdoesavaluemean?Whatarethemosttypicalproblemsassociatedwithavalue?•Transaction(Buyside–sellside)•Representation(Balancesheet–portfolio)•Riskassessment(Loans)•Agoodstart…•Valueisnotaprice•Forwho?•Forhowlong?•Basedonwhichassumptions?Source:RolandBerger123Documentnumber7MakingagoodvaluationrequiresagoodunderstandingofthetargetThereisnoblack-boxtomakeavaluationValuationisinformation•Classicmethodologyaremostlyused•Advancedcomputersystemsareemerging•Inputdatamustbecarefullydocumented(traceability)•ValuationstartswithaonepageSWOTanalysisofthetargetValuationisamatterofcommonsense•Formulasshallnotreplaceyourbestjudgment•Keepaskingkeyquestionsabouttarget•BeasrigorousaspossibleateverystepoftheprocessSource:RolandBergerDocumentnumber8Preliminaryadviceforagoodvaluationwork•Knowyourtarget,rememberthatultimatelythemanagementwillmakethedifference•Avoidworkingundersituationofstress,takesometimetoreflectonthenumbers•Askforhelpandideasifyoumeetunexpectedproblems–usethepoweroftheteam•Shareyourvaluationconclusionswithapeer•Haveyourvaluationworkcheckedbyavaluationcommitteebeforecomingbacktotheclient12345Source:RolandBergerDocumentnumber9GivingtherightnumberAcompanyvalueisalwaysarangeTheresultofavaluationshouldbeveryclearononepageRememberthatvaluationismosthelpfulfornegotiatingpurposes•Derivedfromdifferentmethodologies•Nottoowidetobecredible•Makeveryclearvaluationreportorresumethevaluationprocess•Identifyonaseparatedmemothepotentialissue•Minorityinvestment(writingonecheck)•Majorityinvestment(writingmultiplechecks)Source:RolandBergerDocumentnumber10WorkinginanuncertainenvironmentwithconfidenceChoosingagrowthrateforrevenuesisdifficultExpendituresarenotalwayswelldetailedSomeexpenditurescanbealsoconsideredasassetsSensitivitytothevariationof:commodities,interestrate,taxesWorkonindustryforecasttofindanaverageratebybusinessesTrytoreadmorecarefullyfinancialreportsandthoseofcompetitorsTrytobeconservative,andpreferincreasingthegrowthpotentialRunasensitivityanalysisaftermodelinga“basecase”SelectedvaluationlimitationsSolutionsSource:RolandBergerDocumentnumber11BuildaknowledgebaseSource:RolandBergerFinancialinformationisvaluableKeepalibraryofvaluationcasesSharethisinformationinsidetheteam•Buildatransactiondatabase•Maintainitproperlyandfeedit•Modelbusinesscase•Difficultiesandkeyissues•Enrichthelearningexperienceofeachteammember•MakeeachteammemberacontributorDocumentnumber12Calculatingafairvalueisalwaysachallenge•Modelsarenotalways“stable”•Terminalvalueandvolatilityhaveahugeimpactonfinalresults•Theflowofcorporatenewsdoesnotstop!DifficultsituationIdealsituation50010001500ComparablesDCFRealOptions50010001500DCFRealOptionsComparablesSource:RolandBergerDocumentnumber13Thevaluationequilibriumwillalsobeaffectedbydynamicexogenousfactors•Changesinmacroeconomicconditionswillinfluencethevaluation,inparticular–Interestrates–GDPgrowthrate–Taxrateandgovernmentpolicy•Specifictechnicalmarketfactors–Liquidity–Transactioncost•CorporateIssues–Shareholderspact–AgencysignalsandmanagemententrenchmentissuesDocumentnumber14Ultimately,valuationsensitivitywilldependonthemanagementcapacitytoleadvaluecreationinitiatives•Theshareholdervalueofaninvestmentisthedifferencebetweenanacquisitionpremiumpaidinadvanceandthemanagementcreationinitiativestakenafterthedeal•Beforemakinganinvestment,itisvitaltoassesstherisksandopportunitiesinvolvedindepthand,ifyoudecidetogoahead,encouragethemanagementofthetargettomovequicklyandeffectivelyInvestmentvalueValueofintendedtargetPriceofintendedtargetStand-alonevaluePotenti