CMAI-石化市场分析

APIC-CMAISeminarSeoul14May2009JohnH.Vautrain2APIC2009Crudeoilpriceshaverisenandnowcollapsed.Dubai,$/BBL20.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.002003200420052006200720082009Crudeoilpricevolatilityhastranslatedintopetrochemicalfeedstocksalso.Whyhavepricesbehavedastheyhave?Whatdoesthefuturehold?3APIC2009Shortorlongrecession?Thedepthofrecessionsandtheresultsoffiscalandmonetarymovesaremostobviouslater.Badmovesbykeyeconomicregulatorscouldlengthentherecession.WorldGDP,PercentGrowthV-ShapeU-Shape-202462006200920122015L-Shape4APIC2009KingHubbertisrecognizedasthefatherofPeakOiltheory.HubbertpredicteddeclineinUSoilproductionfifteenyearsinadvance.SimilarpredictionshadbeenmadeearlierbutHubbertiscreditedwithbeingcorrect.Ifoilproductionpeaks,thereareseriousworld-wideimplicationsforenergypricing.Howfastmustnewreservesbedevelopedtosupplyourneeds?5APIC2009Aroundtheworldoilproductionisfallinginmanycountries.Oldoilfieldsexperiencedeclinesandnewonesmustbediscoveredanddevelopedtomaintainproduction.Increasingproductionmeansdevelopingoilevenfaster.-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%USMexicoVenezuelaNorwayNigeriaAlgeriaUnitedKingdomIndonesia2007%ofWorldProductionAnnualAverageDeclineRate(2005-2007)Source:BPStatisticalData&PGIAbout40%of2007globalcrudeoilproductioncamefromcountrieswithdecliningproduction.6APIC2009Longertermdieseldemandgrowthwilloutpacegasolinedemand.05101520253035199019952000200520102015WorldGasolineWorldDieselEuropeGasolineEuropeDieselGlobalGasolineandDieselDemand,MillionB/D7APIC2009Alternativeenergysourceswillsupplementoilandgas.Wind,solar,geothermalandotherenergysourceswillcontribute.Thesesourcesareenvironmentallypreferableandpoliticallypopular.Asinstallationsgrow,thesetechnologiesgetlessexpensive.8APIC200902,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000Geothermal,50Solar/Wind/Other,137CombustibleRenewablesandWaste,257Alternativeenergieswillneedtogrowfromtheirsmallcontributiontobecomemoreimportant.GlobalPowerGeneration(TWh)Total:445TWhRenewablesHydroNuclearNaturalGasCrude&PetroleumProductCoalandcoalProducts9APIC2009Agriculturallimitswilllimittheabilityofnationstosatisfyenergyneedsbasedonagriculturalproducts.U.S.CornConsumptionBillionBuUSCornPlantingsandYieldsMMAcres010203040506070809010019801990200020100255075100125150175200225250AreaPlanted(MMAcres)AreaHarvested(MMAcres)Yield(Bushels/Acre)02468101214161980199020002010NetExportsFuelEthanolFood,IndustrialandSeedFeed&ResidualRequiredCornProductionSource:USDAandPurvin&GertzSource:USDABu/Acre10APIC2009Globalcoalconsumptionisrisingevenmorerapidlythanpetroleum.0100020003000400050006000199719992001200320052007OtherIndustryPowerGlobalCoalConsumptionMillionT/YEmergingmarketsdemandcoaltomeetmostlypowerneeds.Coalconsumptionisupover1billiontonnesperyearinfiveyears.WhatdoesthisrushofcoalconsumptiondotoGHGtargets?Canconsumptionincreasesatthisratecontinuetobesupplied?Note:BituminousEquivalentCoal11APIC200905,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000199719992001200320052007CoalGasOilCoalcontributestoglobalCO2emissions.Politicalpressureisbuildingtoreduceever-growingemissions.Newmeansofregulationtendtofocusonlife-cycleemissions.IndustrialenergyconsumersneedtobesensitivetoGHGattributesofprojects.GlobalCO2EmissionsMillionT/Y12APIC2009Crudeoilpricesarelikelytorecoveralongwitheconomyinthecomingdecade.Fundamentalsupplyissuesarenotgreatlyimprovedfrom2008.Continuedaccesstoresourcesisacriticaluncertainty.Fundingavailabilitymustbelargeandreasonablysteady.0204060801001202000200520102015BrentCrudeOil,$/BBL13APIC2009Whatdoesthefuturehold?Naphtha/gasolinecomplexwillbeweakversuscrudeoilandaveragepetroleumproducts.Octanevalueswilllackstrengthasbio-fuelsexpand,octanedemandfallsandgasolinevolumegrowthlagsdistillates.Coalconsumptionwillgrowtosatisfyenergydemandsinexpandingeconomies.GHGconcernsandregulationswillwiden.Thatissuewillaffectmanyinternationally-tradedenergy-intensivecommodities--possiblyincludingpetrochemicals.15APIC2009