大陆和台湾移动增值服务市场分析（英文版）

MobileContentIndustryLanceLan/VistaApril11,2003MobilePenetrationForecastofSelectedCountries/RegionAsiaPacificSource:EMCWorldCellularDatabase20020%20%40%60%80%100%120%19981999200020012002E2003E2004E2005E2006EChinaMalaysiaTaiwanJapanThailandIndonesiaNote:4MobileDeviceCategories!Notebooks/TabletPCs!Information(Internet)Appliances!PersonalDigitalAssistants/Handhelds!Pagers/Two-wayMessagingDevices!SmartPhones!PhonesGrowthofWirelessandBroadbandInternetCompaq,March11,2002Policy,security,locationandservicemanagementPortalandm-CommerceGSMdata+WAPGPRS+WAPUMTS/3GxDSL,HFCWLAN/BRAN11Mbit/s1999Q2/2000Q3/2000Q1/20012002ConsumerBusinessCorporateapplications(email,PIM,eERP)ExtranetSecureintranetaccessB-to-BCompanyxCompanyyMediaPhonesMediaPhones,PDAsLaptopsPCs,settopboxesMediaphonesPersonalization,securityWebshop,B-to-CBanks•email/PIM•travel•search•news•games•cityguideCompanyzAccessPortalCCBNMSClassificationofOnlineContent•Recreation-onlinegames,MP3,,,onlinefilms,etc•Corporatedatabusinessdata-Intranet,back-endDBs,e-Commerce,onlinebanking,tele-medicine,etcInformation-,,e-books(,),distance-learning,location-basedinfo,languageteaching•Inquiry-searchengines,databases,etc.Source:CCL/ITRIChangingRevenueSources•MobileservicerevenuesinWesternEurope2011–TotalrevenueEUR195billion–MobilevoicerevenueEUR65billion–Non-voiceservicerevenueEUR130billion–InfotainmentservicesrevenueEUR58.5billion–DatacommunicationsrevenueEUR58.5billion–TransactionservicesrevenueEUR7.8billionSource:Analysys,2001b)2011Voice35%Datacomms31%Transactionservices4%Infotainment30%a)2000Non-voice8%Voice92%Mobilecontentmarketsize•NorthAmericanmarketwillaccountfor10%ofglobalrevenuesfromwirelessadvertising,m-Commerce,andmobilecontentsubscriptionby2003.•ThissectorwillbeledbyAsiawith66%ofallrevenues,orUS$5B,followedbyWesternEuropewithUS$1.7B.NorthAmericawillonlyaccountforUS$700M.Source:JupiterMediaMetrix4/2001Marketsize(Contd.)•Ringtones,logos,andotherpersonalizationserviceshaveanestimatedmarketofEUR1.2billionacrossWesternEuropein2002•MobilecontentandentertainmentmarketinWesternEuropecouldrisetoEUR11billionin2005(fromjustoverEUR2billionin2002),ifseveralfactorsmustcometogether.•Djuice(TelenorMobile'smobileISP)andWaltDisneysignedanagreementtoprovideDisneycontent(logos,ringtones,e-cards,andgames,etc),tobelaunchedthisspring2003.-AnalysysResearch,Dec2002UsageFees•AccesstothecontentmaybechargedbypremiumSMS(amessagewithincreasedSMStariff)orpremium-ratecall(acallwithanincreasedtariff).•TeliaMobile’smodel-TheyretaintheSMStariffand20%ofthepremium,whiletheremaining80%ofthepremiumgoestocontentsupplier.•Vodafonehasasimilararrangement.•Tele2takes50%revenuesofPremiumSMS.-SwedenReport,8/29/2002•20%•200(CHTengineer)•6%28%(4;2002-2003)•()•1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.•0.50-3/,30//(e.g.,jokes)•200275,000••80%(UniqueinChina)20%•5.2Jan.20032.347.5170050100150200200120022007()200120022007()PCgameconsolegamemobileterminalPervasivePervasiveStreamedStreamedLocationLocation--basedbasedBasedonJavaorBREW,mobileterminalDownloadableDownloadableserverMultiplayerMultiplayerBasedonWAPori-ModeMicroMicro--browserbrowserSMS,turn-basedSMSSMSmobileterminal,:.EmbeddedEmbedded:MIC2003DedicatedPlays3-100gamesamonthSocialPlays1-3gamesamonthCasualPlaysupto2gamesamonthNon-gamersWillneverplayawirelessgame1.5-2%4.5-10%10-20%68-85%:OVUM2002:OVUM2002Non-brandedStand-alonegamesMedia-BrandedgamesCommunity/Multi-playergamesConsole-andPC-brandedGames/pervasivegamesInteractiveAdvertisingCasualgamersCasual,socialanddedicatedgamersDedicatedgamersHardcoreconsolegamersandDedicatedgamersCasualandSocialGamerKungFu,HangmanX-men,MeccabingoLifestylersQuake,TombRaiderMcDonaldsgame-+():GartnerDataquest2000Gartner2004MobileGamesUS$6Billion()OVUM2006MobileGamesUS$4.4Billion:OVUM2002(US$000s):OVUM2002303,214229,034151,29783,87144,25617,796Korea39,21024,22212,3246,3733,1641,455Taiwan337,790168,28081,29134,67712,6283,522China755,691610,371441,295250,657122,01146,552Japan1,435,9051,031,907686,207375,578182,05969,325TotalRevenue200620052004200320022001ForecastrevenuefrommobilegamesservicesinWesternEurope,2002-2007255Source:AnalysysResearch,Dec2002Mobilegames•20026,000IDC(InternetDataCenter)CDMA1X••mobilecontent•mobilecontentaggregatorsMobilegames–Keysuccessfactorsmobilecontentfirms–40%(e.g.,‘‘,’’(e.g.,location-basedservices)–40%(Ittook6yearsbeforeSMSusagetookoff,sothemarketformobilecontentmayhavesimilarproblemsasSMS.)–20%•:-lackofhandset/deviceinteroperability-theabsenseofacommonstandardfordigitalrightsmanagement(DRM)toavoidcontentpiracy.-•80/20••mobilecontent-productpositioning&Enoughcapitaltosurvive18afterourinvestment