美林关于中国电信的市场分析

CommentPleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage8Page1EquityResearchAsia/PacificChangeinEarningsForecastMay21,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]orBroadbandGrowthSTOCKRATINGOVERWEIGHT–VPrice(May19,2003)HK$1.56PriceTargetHK$1.7052-WeekRangeHK$1.59-1.33ADRPrice,TargetUS$20,22StockratingsarerelativetotherelevantMSCIcountryindex.MSCICHINAINDEXCurrentLevel(LocalCurrency)14.212-MonthTarget(LocalCurrency)14.5MSCICOUNTRYCHINAAsiaStrategistWeight4.0%MSCIACAsiaPacFxJpWeight5.0%•WeareupdatingourmodelandmaintainingourOverweight-VonCT’sstockWeareraisingour2003-5earningsestimatesby1-3%toreflectstronger-than-expectedbroadbandandPASgrowth.Therevisionsreflectsignificantchangestoourrevenueandcostmixforecasts.•StrongerbroadbandandPASgrowthshouldbeoffsetbydeclineinlocalvoiceManagementguidancefor1Q03onbroadbandandPASsubscribersleadsustoraiseoursubscriberprojections.Wearealsoloweringourlocalusageforecastonevidenceofmobilesubstitutionin1Q03.•RecurringEBITDAmarginshouldremainat53%despitechangingcoststructureWeexpectpersonnelandSG&Acoststorise,buttheincreasesshouldbeoffsetbydeclinesinnetworkoperatingcostsandothercosts.•WereiterateourIn-LineviewontheChinaTelecommunicationsindustryRegulatoryuncertaintiesandrisingcompetitioninthecellularmarketwillcontinuetooverhangstockperformance,inourview.WHAT’SCHANGED2003EPSEstimateFromHK$0.153toHK$0.1582004EPSEsimateFromHK$0.172toHK$0.1732005EPSEstimateFromHK$0.191toHK$0.194FYendingDec31:20022003e2004e2005eEPS(HK$)0.150.160.170.19PriorEPSEsts.(HK$)0.150.150.170.19CEPS(HK$)0.430.430.460.50Revenue(Rmbm)69,47875,49880,73286,234NetIncome(Rmbm)10,846.012,735.813,943.615,611.0P/E10.69.89.08.0P/CE3.63.63.43.1Price/Book1.00.90.80.7EV/EBITDA3.33.02.92.8Yield(%)0.74.24.24.2MarketCap(US$m;HK$b)15,162;118BookValue(Rmbb)125EnterpriseValue(HK$b)127ReturnonAssets(%)10Debt/Cap(12/02)(%)17.4FreeFloat(%)10.6ReturnonEquity(12/02)(%)15.2LocalMarketIndex(HSCE)2,218.94L-TEPSGrth.('02-'05)(%)9.61,3,12-mthRel.Perf.(%)4,4,-P/EtoGrowth1.10MSCICountryWeight(%)4.54SharesOutstanding(m)8,027.4ExchRate(HK$/US$1)7.80ADRData-OrdsperADR:100.0020022003e2004e2005eEPADR(US$)1.892.042.232.50P/E10.69.89.08.0CEPADR(US$)5.545.545.916.38P/CE3.63.63.43.1Yield(%)0.74.24.24.2ExchRate(HK$/US$1)7.807.807.807.80e=MorganStanleyResearchestimatesMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ChinaChinaTelecomReuters:0728.HKBloomberg:728HKADR:CHA.NTelecommunicationsChinaTelecom–May21,2003Pleaseseeanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosuresstartingonpage8Page2ChinaTelecom:FinancialSummaryRmbMillions;YearsEndingDecember31IncomeStatements2001A2002A2003E2004E2005ETotalOperatingRevenue68,54675,49681,03485,51790,076Growth(%)-3.5%10.1%7.3%5.5%5.3%RecurringRevenue62,25669,47875,49880,73286,234Growth(%)-3.8%11.6%8.7%6.9%6.8%OperatingExpenses50,44854,11857,39361,09164,471EBITDA37,54942,26045,55947,83349,883Margin(%)54.8%56.0%56.2%55.9%55.4%RecurringEBITDA31,25936,24240,02443,04946,041Margin(%)50.2%52.2%53.0%53.3%53.4%EBIT6,93021,19623,64124,42525,605Margin(%)26.4%28.3%29.2%28.6%28.4%RecurringEBIT12,57015,17818,10619,64121,763Margin(%)10.1%28.1%29.2%28.6%28.4%Pre-TaxProfit6,79320,78523,70024,67526,114NetIncome6,88316,86418,27118,72919,453Margin(%)10.0%22.3%22.5%21.9%21.6%RecurringNetIncome8,58610,84612,73613,94415,611Margin(%)10.0%22.3%22.5%21.9%21.6%EPS(HK$)Reported0.090.230.230.230.24Recurring0.120.150.160.170.19CEPS(HK$)Reported0.360.510.500.520.54Recurring0.390.430.430.460.50BalanceSheets2001A2002A2003E2004E2005ECurrentAssetsCashandCashEquivalents4,35517,73925,40733,65344,489BadDebtExpenses–––––AccountsReceivable,Net5,6085,9616,2476,4926,771Inventories1,4131,0661,1441,2071,272PrepaymentsandOCAs2,7521,7361,8631,9662,071TotalCurrentAssets14,12826,50234,66343,31954,603Non-CurrentAssetsPP&E,Net138,623149,165155,747157,390157,155ConstructioninProgress23,27420,31917,75316,98716,976TotalAssets189,334210,852223,029232,562243,600CurrentLiabilitiesShort-TermDebt18,82719,17519,17519,17519,175CurrentPortionofLTDebt3,6212,2191,196825268AccountsPayable14,91914,39915,45516,31017,180AccruedExps&OthPay.11,88414,10814,96215,92616,807OtherDeferredLiabilities8,1937,7268,3458,5288,247TotalCurrentLiabilities57,44457,62759,13360,76461,677Non-CurrentLiabilitiesLong-TermDebt7,1014,8533,6572,8322,564FinanceLeaseObligations11––––DeferredRevenue26,35321,61216,07711,2927,450DeferredTaxLiabilities–618618618618TotalNon-CurrentLiab33,46527,08320,35214,74210,632TotalLiabilities90,90984,71079,48575,50772,308MinorityInterests9401,1341,1341,1341,134ShareholderEquity97,485125,008142,410155,921170,157TotalLiabs,andEquity189,334210,852223,029232,562243,600CashFlowStatement2001A2002A2003E2004E2005ENetIncome6,88316,86418,27118,72919,453Add:Depreciation19,45120,88221,91823,40824,278Add:Inc.inBadDebtProv.1863453774044