中国不良资产国有银行现状&起源和处理方法

NPLsofChineseState-ownedBanks:CurrentStatus,OriginsandDisposalMethodsM.Chen,C.JiaandX.XuGuanghuaSchoolofManagementPekingUniversity2OverviewofChina’sBankingSector•Briefhistory–Before1979:PBC–1979-84:EstablishmentoffourSOCBs–1986-:Establishmentofjoint-stockbanks–2001-:CityCommercialBanks•Marketsharebyassets(Q3,2004)–SCOBs:54.1%–Joint-stockbanks:14.6%3NPLsofFourSOCBsFigure2:AmountsofNPLsintheFourSOCBsReportedbythePBC00.511.522.53200120022003Q3,2004YearRMBTrillionNPLs4NPLsofFourSOCBsFigure3:AmountsofNPLsReportedbySOCBsThemselves02004006008001000ICBCBOCCCBABCRMBBillion20002001200220035NPLsofFourSOCBsFigure4:NPLRatiooftheSOCBs0102030402000200120022003YearPercentICBCBOCCCBABC6OriginsofNPLs•Policyloans•SOEsversusprivatesector•HighlevelofdebtofChinesecompanies•Interestratecontrol–Lowbaserate;lowerthanUSA,IndiaandKorea–Lowspreadbetweenthedepositandlendingrates•LaevenandMajnoni(2003):in2000,China:3.6%andaverageof106countries:6.67%•Poormanagementandmoralhazard7YearStockissueLoangrowthStockissue/Loangrowth1993314.546335.404.961994138.057216.621.911995118.869339.821.271996341.5210683.333.201997933.8210712.478.721998803.5711490.946.991999897.3910846.368.2720001541.0213346.6111.5520011182.1312439.419.50CapitalsRaisedbyChineseCompanies82002779.7518979.204.112003823.1027702.302.97Datasource:ＩＮＦＯＢＡＮＫ9ReasonsfortheDecreaseinNPLsratio•Increaseintotalamountofloans–In2003,thenetincreasewasRMB2,770billions(24%totalloansbetween1991-2003)•DecreaseinNPLs–Capitalinjectionbygovernment–TransferofNPLstoAMCs–InQ2of2003,NPLsincreasedbyRMB18.3billionaftertakingintoaccountofNPLstransfers•Changeinmaturitystructureofloans10GrowthrateofChina'sGDPandloans6%13%16.90%21.10%8%7.30%8%9.10%0%5%10%15%20%25%2000200120022003GrowthrateofloansGrowthrateofGDP11MethodsofNPLDisposal•Capitalinjectionbygovernment•EstablishmentofAMCs–FinancingofAMCs–Methodsofassetdisposal•Auction•Equity-debtswap•Assetbackedsecurities–Increasinglymoredifficult•DirectdisposalbyfourSOCBs12NPLDisposalbytheAMCs(Asofend-Q3,2004)AMCsNPLdisposedCashrecoveryrate(%)Huarong1745.627.3520.34GreatWall1832.415.6410.56Orient966.829.9121.89Cinda1331.439.1533.20AMCsoverall5876.226.79%20.46%(Source:PBC,CBRC)Assetrecoveryrate%13NPLsandFinancialStabilityofChina•NPLscontinuetoemergeinlargeamount–ThenewNPLsinthenextthreeyearswillbebetweenRMB600billionto1,050billion(Zhong,2004).•Liberalizationofbankingsector•Capitalinjectionbygovernmentisbecomingmorelimited–Rapidincreaseingovernmentdebt14ConcludingRemarks•Verylimitedsuccess•Criticalinthenextfewyears•Goingpublicmayhelpbutdoesnotsolvethefundamentalproblems