基于交通系统与城市空间结构互馈机制的城际轨道交通走廊客流预测

30,4Vol130No1420097CHINARAILWAYSCIENCEJuly,2009:100124632(2009)04201182061,2,1,1(1.,410075;2.,100044):,,,,,;,,,,,,:;;;;;:U4921433:U4921413:A:2008210210;:200924222:()(2007K20027);(3340274236000003):(1963),,,,,,;,,,,,,11,,[1],,[225],,(),,(),,(IntCRT),,1TOD(TOD)[6]1TOD,,,,,1TOD1,TOD,,2,,,WernerSombart2070[7],++[8],,,,,,,,2,23311,,1990(GBJ13790),,(R)(C)(M)(W)(T)(S)(U)(G)(D)(E)IL={R,C,M,W,T,S,U,G,D,E},ILIntCRT,,()IntCRT,,TOD,TOD1,,,,,,,TOD1,,,,,IntCRT,26km,,[9],,IntCRTIm={1,2,3,,m}In={1,2,3,,n},,mn312,,,9114ilMli=jsljiPRljijsljiiIm,lIL(1):PRljisljiilj31331311,,r(2)Nr,,,,,Nr31312,,,KPi,KPi=lj€sljiVljiilj€sljiVljiiIn(2),Vlji=exp(-atlji+b)tlji=a0+b1x+b2y:€slji,Vljiilj;tljiiljxy,;a,b,a0,b1,b24IntCRTIntCRT,,,,IntCRT,IntCRT,IntCRT,IntCRT,,(),IntCRT41141111[4],KlKl,lIL,qi=lILslicliIm(3)…qi=lILsli€cliIn(4):qi…qi,sliil,cl€cll,(3)(4)cl€clcl€cl,KlKl,,,,,ii[4]:i=lILMlisliKliImlILMlisliKliIm(5),:;,;3131202130,i…i:…i=lILKPisliKliInlILKPisliKliIn(6)(6),41112[4]41111(3)(4),lŠl,lIL;,i…i,:i=lILMlisliliImlILMlisliliIm(7)…i=lILKPisliŠliInlILKPisliŠliIn(8)41241211,TT=kTk(9),Tk=rakrNr:Tkk;akrrk,[4],Gi=iTiIm(10),,,,T,ŠGi=…iTiIn(11)41212,,,TT41211AiAi,Ai=iTiIm(12)Ai=…iTiIn(13)413IntCRTIntCRTInt2CRT41211,,IntCRTG,G=iImGi+iInŠGi(14),41212,IntCRTA=iImAi+iInAi(15)IntCRTIntCRT,(),Int2CRT,IntCRTGA,IntCRTGIntCRTG,GG=G(16),=PGDPRPGDPR+yPyGDPyRy:PGDPIntCRT;PyGDPyIntCRTy,RIntCRT,RyIntCRTy1214IntCRTIntCRTA414IntCRT412,GA,GiAi,iImInInt2CRT,,,[3]IntCRT5,,341925,IntCRT,:(),()();:()()(),,()()IntCRT,(2015)161045/6TOD,,,,,,,,411/,(),[4][1],.[C]//().:,2002.[2],,,.[J].,2002,19(1):72275.(YANGMing,QUDayi,WANGWei,etal.OntheRelationshipbetweenUrbanLandUseandTrafficDemand[J].JournalofHighwayandTransportationResearchandDevelopment,2002,19(1):72275.inChinese)[3],,.[J].,2003,36(1):41245.(LUHuapu,WANGJianwei,CHENMing.StudyontheMethodstoForecastthePassengerVolumeofIntercityRapidRailway[J].ChinaCivilEngineeringJournal,2003,36(1):41245.inChinese)[4],,,.[J].,2005,38(3):1152118.(SHIFei,JIANGWei,WANGWei,etal.ResearchonForecastMethodforTrafficCreatingBasedonCharacteris2ticofLandUtilizing[J].ChinaCivilEngineeringJournal,2005,38(3):1152118.inChinese)22130[5],.[J].,2003,24(6):1112117.(WUXiaoping,CHENXiufang.ProgressofStudyonUrbanMassTransitNetworkPlanningTheoryandMethod2ology[J].ChinaRailwayScience,2003,24(6):1112117.inChinese)[6]PETERC.TheNextAmericanMetropolis:Ecology,Community,andtheAmericanDream[M].NewYork:PrincetonArchitecturalPress,2002.[7].[M].:,2008.(CIFuyi.CircularEconomyandRegionalDevelopmentTheoryandEmpirical[M].Beijing:EconomicSciencePress,2008.inChinese)[8].[J].,2002,26(4):64268.(HUHaibo.OntheEvolutionandTendencyofUrbanSpatialDevelopmentwithChangshuCityinJiangsuProvinceastheCase[J].CityPlanningReview,2002,26(4):64268.inChinese)[9],.[J].,2004,26(3):13219.(LIUJinling,ZENGXuegui.ProbeintotheIntegrativePlanningofUrbanRailTransitandLandUseBasedonQuantitativeAnalysis[J].JournaloftheChinaRailwaySociety,2004,26(3):13219.inChinese)PassengerFlowForecastforIntercityRailTransitCorridorBasedontheDynamicInteractionMechanismbetweenTrafficSystemandUrbanSpatialStructureLIXiamiao1,2,ZENGMinghua1,HUANGGuizhang1(1.SchoolofTrafficandTransportationEngineering,CentralSouthUniversity,ChangshaHunan410075,China;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofRailTrafficControlandSafety,BeijingJiaotongUniversity,Beijing100044,China)Abstract:Thepassengerflowforecastforintercityrailtransitcorridorhasbeenstudiedundertheguidanceoftheinteractionmechanismbetweentrafficsystemandurbanspatialstructureaswellasthetransitorien2teddevelopmentstrategy.Followingthecontroloflandusepatternfornewly2builtareasintheintercityrailtransitcorridor,thegeographicaldistributionweightofpopulationwascalculatedusingthelandvalue.Thentheweightsoftripgenerationandtripattraction,whichdescribedthemechanismoftrafficsystemtourbanspatialstructure,wereformulated.Whenitcametothebuilt2upareas,landusepatternwasprima2rilyappliedtocalculatethetripgenerationweightandtripattractionweight.Thiswasatraditionalandtypicalwaythatreflectstheeffectofurbanspatialstructureontrafficsystem.Furthermore,thepassengertrafficforecastapproachwaspresentedforintercityrailtransitcorridor.Theforecastingmethodnotonlydepictsthatthetrafficdemandcanbesatisfiedbutalsoreflects,moresignificantly,therealguidingroleoftheintercityrailsystemforurbanspatialmorphologyandthetrafficdemand.TakingChangsha2Zhuzhou2Xiangtanintercityrailtransitprojectasthebackground,theforecastapproachhasbeenappliedtoinvesti2gateandforecastthepassengerflowdemandforintercityrailtransitcorridorinthecorrespondingarea.Keywords:Passengerflowforecast;Intercityrailtransit;Transitoriented;Developmentstrategy;Urbanspatialstructure;Dynamicinteractionmechanism()3214