基于粒子群的快速路小时交通量预测

五邑大学本科毕业设计I摘要本文主要目的是对城市快速路的小时交通量进行智能预测，由于城市快速路交通量的具有不确定特、非线性等特性，因而对城市快速路的交通流预测需要通过构建预测模型方法进行研究。人们在不断地探索交通流量预测模型的历程中，在最近发现并提出了一种基于粒子群优化的BP神经网络的新型的交通量预测模型。这个预测模型的基础为BP神经网络，辅以用粒子群优化算法对其网络的权值和阀值进行优化，以此来提高神经网络对交通流预测的精度和准确度。经过研究和数据分析，粒子群-BP神经网络预测模型在预测交通流量应用中具有较好的效果也比较精确。本文下面分章节主要系统地讨论现代智能交通系统的发展概况，现代城市快速路与交通交通流预测模型，粒子群优化算法的起源与其原理等，粒子群优化算法与神经网络结合的原理和应用，以及PSO-BP神经网络的交通预测模型的实验仿真等等内容。关键词：PSO算法；BP神经网络；交通量预测；城市快速路；智能交通系统五邑大学本科毕业设计IIAbstractMainpurposeofthisarticleishourtrafficvolumeofurbanexpresswayintelligentforecast,becauseofurbanexpresswaytrafficflowwithuncertaintyandnonlinearcharacteristics,sofortheurbanexpresswaytrafficflowforecastneedtobuildforecastmodelmethodsarestudied.Peopleinconstantexplorationinthecourseofatrafficflowpredictionmodel,therecentlydiscoveredandputforwardakindofBPneuralnetworkbasedonparticleswarmoptimizationofthenewmodelofthetrafficvolumeforecast.ThispredictionmodelisthebasisoftheBPneuralnetwork,byusingparticleswarmoptimizationalgorithmforthenetworkweightsandthresholdsareoptimized,inordertoimprovetheaccuracyofneuralnetworktotrafficflowpredictionandaccuracy.Throughresearchanddataanalysis,theparticleswarm-BPneuralnetworkpredictionmodelinthepredictionoftrafficflowintheapplicationhasagoodeffectisalsomoreaccurate.Inthispaper,thefollowingchaptersmainlydiscusssystematicallythedevelopmentofmodernintelligenttransportationsystem,themodernurbanexpresswaytrafficflowpredictionmodelandtraffic,suchastheoriginoftheparticleswarmoptimizationalgorithmanditsprinciple,theprincipleofparticleswarmoptimizationalgorithmcombinedwithneuralnetworkanditsapplication,andthePSO-BPneuralnetworktrafficpredictionmodelofexperimentalsimulationandsoon.Keywords：PSOalgorithm；BPneuralnetwork；Trafficvolumeforecast；UrbanExpressway；Intelligenttransportationsystems五邑大学本科毕业设计III目录摘要.................................................................................................................................................................IAbstract..............................................................................................................................................................II目录............................................................................................................................................................III第1章绪论.................................................................................................................................................11.1课题背景...............................................................................................................................................11.2当今智能交通系统的发展概况......................................................................................................11.2.1现在国内的智能交通系统的发展状况...................................................................................11.2.2国外ITS发展状况.......................................................................................................................11.3交通流量预测的意义........................................................................................................................21.4本章小结...............................................................................................................................................2第2章城市快速路与交通流量预测............................................................................................32.1城市快速路的特点............................................................................................................................32.2交通流参数介绍.................................................................................................................................42.3交通量统计间隔的选择...................................................................................................................42.4交通流预测模型的概述...................................................................................................................42.4.1交通流理论的发展........................................................................................................................42.4.2短时交通流量预测........................................................................................................................52.4.3交通流预测模型............................................................................................................................62.5本章小结...............................................................................................................................................6第3章粒子群优化算法概述............................................................................................................73.1粒子群算法的产生及其应用..........................................................................................................73.2算法原理...............................................................................................................................................73.3算法的数学描述.................................................................................................................................83.4算法的参数...............................................