瑞士银行-国美电器投资策略之一

UBSInvestmentResearchFirstRead:GomeTheendofGoRuralPolicyasexpected„NotnewnewsTheChineseregulatorsannouncedtograduallyexitthe“GoRuralPolicy”startingNovember30inShandong,Henan,Sichuan,andQingdao,andtheprogramwillcompletelyexitnationwidebyend-2013asplannedafewyearsago.Therefore,theannouncementwasnotasurprisetothemarket.„MinimalimpactonGomeGomehasbeenfocusingon1st-/2nd-tiercities,andthe“GoRuralPolicy”onlyaccountsfor4-5%ofitsrevenue.Therefore,thecompleteexitoftheprogramshouldnotcausesignificantsalesimpactonGomerelativetothe3rd-/4th-tierplayers,suchasHaier,inourview.„TheOldExchangeforNewPolicyisstillintact;nochangeonEPSest.Anothergovernmentsubsidyprogram,the“OldExchangeforNewPolicy”,isrenewedtilltheend-2012,sothereshouldbenorevenueandfundamentalimpactfor2011-12.Therefore,wemaintainourEPSestimatesunchanged.„Valuation:ReiterateBuyratingandapricetargetofHK$4.30Weviewthatthemarketover-reactedtotherecentnewsontheexitof“GoRuralPolicy”.Gomecurrentlytradesat12x2012PEwithanearningsCAGRof22%for2011-13E,sowebelievethestockisoversoldandreiterateourBuyratingonGome.WederiveourpricetargetfromaDCF-basedmethodologyandexplicitlyforecastlong-termvaluationdriversusingUBS’sVCAMtool,assumingaWACCof8.2%.Highlights(Rmbm)12/0912/1012/11E12/12E12/13ERevenues42,68850,91061,02570,65580,080EBIT(UBS)1,6362,5033,1463,8044,558NetIncome(UBS)1,2051,8522,5203,1583,738EPS(UBS,Rmb)0.090.120.150.190.22NetDPS(UBS,Rmb)0.000.040.050.060.07Profitability&Valuation5-yrhistav.12/1012/11E12/12E12/13EEBITmargin%4.24.95.25.45.7ROIC(EBIT)%32.538.276.9120.0216.4EV/EBITDA(core)x13.510.67.45.43.9PE(UBS)x19.219.115.112.010.2Netdividendyield%1.21.62.02.53.0Source:Companyaccounts,ThomsonReuters,UBSestimates.(UBS)valuationsarestatedbeforegoodwill,exceptionalsandotherspecialitems.Valuations:basedonanaveragesharepricethatyear,(E):basedonasharepriceofHK$2.76on19Sep201122:07HKTDavidLau,[e-mail][phone]EricaPoonWerkun,[e-mail][phone]GlobalEquityResearchChinaRetailers,Broadline12-monthratingBuyUnchanged12mpricetargetHK$4.30/US$0.55UnchangedPriceHK$2.76/US$0.35RIC:0493.HKBBG:493HK19September2011Tradingdata(local/US$)52-wkrangeHK$3.79-2.28/US$0.49-0.29Marketcap.HK$41.6bn/US$5.33bnShareso/s15,055m(ORD)Freefloat48%Avg.dailyvolume('000)97,903Avg.dailyvalue(m)HK$326.3Balancesheetdata12/11EShareholders'equityRmb13.0bnP/BV(UBS)2.9xNetCash(debt)Rmb10.1bnForecastreturnsForecastpriceappreciation+55.8%Forecastdividendyield2.5%Forecaststockreturn+58.3%Marketreturnassumption9.4%Forecastexcessreturn+48.9%EPS(UBS,Rmb)12/11E12/10UBSCons.ActualH10.07-0.06H2E0.08-0.0612/11E0.150.1512/12E0.190.19Performance(HK$)07/0810/0801/0904/0907/0910/0901/1004/1007/1010/1001/1104/1107/110.001.002.003.004.005.006.00020406080100120PriceTarget(HK$)(LHS)StockPrice(HK$)(LHS)Rel.HangSeng(RHS)StockPrice(HK$)Rel.HangSengSource:UBS:Gome19September2011UBS2ThisdocumentisbeingprovidedfortheexclusiveuseofJACQUELINELEUNGatUBSAGUBS3GomeElectricalAppliancesIncomestatement(Rmbm)12/0612/0712/0812/0912/1012/11E%ch12/12E%ch12/13E%chRevenues24,72942,47945,88942,68850,91061,02519.970,65515.880,08013.3Operatingexpenses(exdepn)(24,949)(42,957)(46,906)(43,762)(51,305)(61,211)19.3(70,459)15.1(79,507)12.8EBITDA(UBS)1,0322,0682,2501,9912,8453,53824.44,23819.85,01818.4Depreciation(118)(265)(306)(355)(342)(392)14.7(434)10.9(460)5.9Operatingincome(EBIT,UBS)9141,8031,9441,6362,5033,14625.73,80420.94,55819.8Otherincome&associates000000-0-0-Netinterest61231229(8)(103)170-352107.43612.6Abnormalitems(pre-tax)000000-0-0-Profitbeforetax9752,0342,1731,6282,4003,31638.14,15625.34,91918.4Tax(126)(360)(435)(406)(548)(796)45.2(997)25.3(1,180)18.4Profitaftertax8491,6731,7381,2221,8522,52036.03,15825.33,73818.4Abnormalitems(post-tax)94(505)(639)2041090-0-0-Minorities/prefdividends(123)(41)(51)(17)00-0-0-Netincome(localGAAP)8191,1271,0481,4091,9622,52028.53,15825.33,73818.4NetIncome(UBS)7261,6331,6871,2051,8522,52036.03,15825.33,73818.4Taxrate(%)1318202523245.1240.0240.0Pre-abnormaltaxrate(%)1318202523245.1240.0240.0Pershare(Rmb)12/0612/0712/0812/0912/1012/11E%ch12/12E%ch12/13E%chEPS(localGAAP)0.090.090.080.100.130.1520.50.1925.30.2218.4EPS(UBS)0.080.130.130.090.120.1525.40.1925.30.2218.4NetDPS0.020.050.030.000.040.0520.80.0625.00.0718.4CashEPS0.100.150.160.110.140.1722.40.2123.40.2516.9BVPS0.380.590.350.540.740.775.20.9218.41.0818.1Balancesheet(Rmbm)12/0612/0712/0812/0912/1012/11E%ch12/12E%ch12/13E%chNettangiblefixedassets2,2073,1443,7203,3923,5564,39423.65,11516.45,5819.1Netintangiblefixedassets3