着名投资银行高盛对盛大购并新浪事件的分析报告

ShandaInteractiveEntertainment(SNDA)SINACorporation(SINA)Shandaacquires19.5%ofSina;weviewaswapratioof0.9:1.0asfairTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CustomersofTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.intheUnitedStatescanreceiveindependent,third-partyresearchonthecompanyorcompaniescoveredinthisreport,atnocosttothem,wheresuchresearchisavailable.Customerscanaccessthisindependentresearchat://@gs.comHongKong:[e-mail]:[phone]GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSummary:ShandaannouncedinaSECfilingafterthemarketcloseonFeb18thatithasacquired19.5%ofSina'ssharesusingcashonhand,thevastmajorityimmediatelyfollowingSina's4Q2004resultsreleaseonFeb8.Thetransactionitselfisearningsaccretive-weraiseourShanda2005fullydiluted(FD)EPSestimateby8%toUS$1.42and2006by7%toUS$1.60toreflectShandaequityaccountingitsstakeandthusbooking19.5%ofSina'searnings($13mnboost),offsettingforegoneinterestincome($4mnreduction).AfullacquisitionwouldbeearningsdilutivegivenShandaisat23Xour2005FDEPSwhileSinaisat25X;weviewSina'searningsquality(60%wireless)aslower,thoughShandamightboostSina'searningsthroughleveragingitsprepaidcardnetwork.WeassumeShandawillwaitandwatchSina'ssharepricenextweek,andconsiderashareswapacquisitionataratioofnotmorethan1:1.WehaveanILratingonShandaanda12monthtargetpriceof$33basedon21Xour2006forecastEPS;risksincludelossofmassivemultiplayergameplayerstorivalgameWorldofWarcraft.WehaveanILratingonSinaanda12monthtargetpriceof$26basedon20Xour2006fullydilutedEPS;risksincludeover-relianceonwirelessandspecificallySMS/MMSproducts.Forecastsandvaluation-ShandaInteractiveEntertainmentNetIncomeEPSEPSGrowthP/EEV/EBITDADiv.YieldFiscalyearendedUS$mnUS$%XX12/02A16.80.334,533.389.684.4--12/03A27.90.6078.450.258.3--12/04E71.21.0271.229.325.11.112/05ENew118.31.7066.117.715.8--12/05EOld109.51.57--------12/06ENew133.81.9213.015.613.92.412/06EOld124.71.79--------Forecastsandvaluation-SINACorporationNetIncomeEPSEPSGrowthP/EEV/EBITDADiv.YieldFiscalyearendedUS$mnUS$%X12/02A(4.9)(0.11)83.8NM(2,520.1)--12/03A31.40.66NM39.025.3--12/04E66.01.33102.519.214.2--12/05E65.61.29(3.3)19.914.6--12/06E76.31.5016.317.112.5--Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesShandaInteractiveEntertainment/SINACorporationFebruary20,2005GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2•Shandahasinthepasttradedoutofsomeinvestments(e.g.theRmb41mninvestmentincomeitbookedin4Q2004,whichmayhavebeenfromapriorforayintoSinashares)andmovedtofullcontrolofothers(e.g.buying29%thenafurther9%inActozin4Q2004).•WebelieveSina'sstockpricemayinitiallytradeupstrongly,thenfallbackifShandadoesnothingandnoalternateacquirersemerge.Shanda'sstockpricemaytakeaninitialhitonfearsofitissuingstocktopayforabiggerstakeinSinaandoninvestorconcernthatShandawillnowfacewirelessservicerisk,thenreboundifShandadoesnothing.IfShanda'ssharepricedoesnotrise,wewouldthusbesellersofSinaabove$31(samepriceasShanda'scurrentpriceand25XSina's2006FDEPS).Netease,Tencent,andSohumaytradeuponhopethattheytoocouldbeacquisitiontargets,but:(1)wedonotviewthemastargetsgiventheyeach-unlikeSina-haveacontrollingshareholderunlikelytosellatanywhereclosetocurrentprices;(2)amergedShanda-Sinaentitycouldproveaformidablecompetitor,especiallytoSina'straditionalrivalSohu.RECENTEVENTSSUMMARYShandadisclosedinits4Q2004resultsthatithadmadeaninvestmentprofitofRmb41mntradingsharesinanotherlistedcompany,whichmayhavebeenSina-Sina'ssharepricevariedbetween$21and$40duringthatquarter.Shandahasnowdisclosedthatitsunlistedparententitiesbought0.7mnSinasharesfor$19mn(or$25-$30pershare)inJanuary,andthatShandaitselfbought9.1mnSinasharesfor$211mn(oraround$23pershare)onFebruary8-9.Shandaexpectstopurchasethesharesbelongingtoitsparententitiesatcost.The13Dfilingstatesthat'TheSecuritieshavebeenacquiredforstrategicinvestmentpurposes...Dependinguponvariousfactors...[Shandamayconsider]increasingitsstake...seekingtoacquireorinfluencecontroloftheIssuer...seekingamerger,consolidation,orotherbusinesscombination...[Shanda]mayengageindiscussionswiththeIssuertoexplorethepossibilityofabusinesscombinat