中国零售业的发展演变及投资机会

上海交通大学硕士学位论文中国零售业的发展演变及投资机会姓名：俞晨洁申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：陶亚民20060115ABSTRACTTheretailtradeisanancientandtraditionalindustry.Itistheterminalmarketofthewholemarketsystem,whichcanobtainthecustomers’feedbackoftherequirementandcarryoutthepurchase,andsothatithasestablishedthecenterpositioninthewholenationaleconomy.ThedevelopingprocessofChineseretailtradehasreflectednotonlythegeneralrulesoftheinternationalretailtrade,butalsothespecialbackgroundandtracksofitsown.Theinternationalizationtrendoftheretailtradecausedfromeconomicglobalization,thesupportplatformsetupbytheprogressofinformationandtechnology,thedevelopmentofmodernlogisticsindustryarethefactorstosupportthedevelopmentoftheretailtradewhichchangesfromtraditiontomodernization.Chineseretailtradehasbecomeoneofthemostrapidchange,openmarketandfuriouscompetitionindustriesduringtherecentyears.Currentlytherearealotofachievementsintheorystudiesoftheretailtrade.Foreignexpertspaymoreattentiontotheelectronicsretail,theinternationalizationtrendandetc.Domesticindustryinsiderspaymoreattentiontothebusinessformal,developmenttrendandstrategicchoiceoftheretailenterprises.Buttothepointofviewfromtheinvestment,findingsomeinvestableopportunitiesbystudyingthedevelopmentprocessofChineseretailtrade,analyzingthepresentstatus,learningtheinternationalexperiences,judgingthefuturetrendsisalsoasignificanttask.Thisarticleismainlydividedintothreeparts.Thefirstpartisthegeneraloutlineoftheretailtrade,whichbrieflystudiesforeignanddomesticretailtradehistoryandtheirinternaldynamic,thendeducesthedevelopingtrendoftheinternationalretailtrade.ThesecondpartanalyzesthecurrentstatusofChineseretailtrade,whichanalyzesthepresentconditionofChineseretailindustryindetailbystudyingthereactiontotheeconomicperiod,analyzingthecontrastofthemarketstructurebetweenforeignandTHEDEVELOPMENTANDINVESTMENTOPPORTUNITIESOFCHINESERETAILTRADEdomesticretailtradeandconstruingthecoreimpetus.ThethirdpartconcludessomeinvestmentopportunitieswithinthechangingtrendofChineseretailtrade.Ihavemainlydrawnsomeconclusionasfollows:Chineseretailtradeatpresenthasbothperiodicandnonperiodiccharacteristics.Nomatterfromtheeconomicperiod,thepolicydirectionortheindustryprospect,Chineseretailtradeisakindofinvestableindustrythatisbothaggressiveanddefensive.Chineseretailtradehashugedevelopingspaceunderthefunctionoffivepowers,whicharethecompetitivepressure,governmentsupport,urbanizationpropulsion,consumers’demandandtechnologyinnovation.Investorscanfindmanyinvestmentopportunitiesinpurchasingandreorganizingtheretailcorporations,inintegratingtheretailtrade,inthemaintrendofthechainbusinessformal,inrevaluatingtheretailpubliccompaniesduringtheAsharesstocksmarketreform,incontrastingwiththevaluationofinternationalretailenterprises.Investorscanpaymoreattentiontothosekindsofretailcompaniesthathaverisingperformance,goodlocationresourceandlocalareasmarket,thatenlargebycarryingoutthechainbusinessstyle,notonlyownahugesalescalebutalsoadopttheexcellentsupplychainmanagementandcorporateculture,thatowntheprosperousdistricthouseproperty,abundantcashflow,high-qualitynetworkoutletandthebrandvalue.KEYWORDS:retailtrade,businessformal,marketstructure,developingtrend,investmentopportunities20061151920054.51320052010810202020MBA11.18208123456781:199878MBA21-1(1)(2)(3)(4)()(5)(6)(1)(2)10(3)(4)(5)11(6)(1);(2),;(3);(4)MBA3(1)(2)5-780%(3)(4)1624(5)(1)(2)(3)90%(4)(5)(6)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)80%(6)(7)()(1)(2)(3)(4)()(5)(6)(7)(8)MBA42004630(2)1.21191852(1855)(1856)(1865)2185918692519922031930MBA51840194920120507022080901978-19919.7200114.1%1979199113GDP9.02%1953197826GDP6.03%901-1MBA6FIGURE1-1PerCapitaIncomeGrowthRateofUrbanandRuralHouseholdsfrom1990to19943094150291488625831FIGURE1-2GreatDepartmentStoresRapidDevelopmentin1990’1-2197913080901986199035199194199215019932911997831199520809090MBA73209020901999200138.2%200110.81996234.7%1978-1991199220002827720199470%1998“”22153070199810719991141999150050%117500061250%1999180030001351.3MBA82090,,,25075060%750100%,,,1992,20003599203607,875,40%,1992,1-25220012001-20031151%200411530550%200611MBA9200227,8000,23%1.3.2,,,,1962,1970,5000160102800JayFitzsimmons20053000100,MBA1019851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001EPOSEDI72DSS40%EDI11570%10311-3,1974,1983,,,,,1984,80,(EDI),,,,,199050001800,EDI90,4000EDI,7%,30%,66MBA111961·W·20502080POSEDI2424243800282500020015.53MBA121.4ROYALAHOLD200350020022200MBA13“”BtoCBusinesstoConsumerMBA142.11Datastream1FIGURE2-1AmericanRetailTradeGrowthRateVsGDPGrowthRatesince19902-1901MBA15GDPGDP19942004FIGURE2-2ChineseGDPVsRetailTradeGrowthRatefrom1994to20042-21994——GDPGDPGDP220044200410200439.5%21MBA16GDP200073%200148%200240%GDP8%209015%GDP2-1%199819992000200120022003200458.760.161.159.85855.45781.482.38384.885.971.372.672.373.776.777.577.778.578.180.378.27878.377.681.581.28079.877.588.787.988.387.889.67777.577.378.479.51993-200359.5%200457%1078%-79%202-32-4MBA17FIGURE2-3SalesandProportionofChineseWholesaleTradefrom1993to2004FIGURE2-4ChineseTotalSalesofConsumerGoodsVsSalesoftheWhole