EnergyEfficiency能源效率-Micro

SteveTerry–Partner,AzureInt’lDr.YangJianlong–DivisionDir.,Dept.ofIndustrialEconomy,DevelopmentResearchCenterofStateCouncilMarkGinsberg–USDept.ofEnergyCalvinXu–Sr.OperationsOfficer&ChinaUtility-BasedEnergyEfficiencyFinanceProgram,ProgramManager,InternationalFinanceCorporationDavidNieh–GeneralManager,Planning/Development,ShuiOnLandDr.FuqiangYang–VPandChiefRep.,TheEnergyFoundation(Beijing)安元易如国际科技发展,合伙人杨建龙博士–国务院发展研究中心产业部研究室主任美国能源部徐秋文–国际金融公司高级执行官兼中国能效融资项目项目经理聂耀中–瑞安房地产规划及发展部总经理杨富强博士–美国能源基金会北京办事处副主席兼首席代表EnergyEfficiency能源效率4/9/20072FinancingEnergyEfficiency:InternationalExperienceanditsApplicationtoChinaYangjianlongDivisionChief.Ph.DDevelopmentResearchCenterofStateCouncilcontent1.ContextofChina’sEnergyintheFuture2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted3.EnergyefficiencyinvestmentinChina4.Establishself-sustainingEEfinancingmechanism5.Governmentrole6.Energyservicecorporations(ESCO)7.Bankfinancing8.Conclusion1.ContextofChina’sEnergyinFuture1.1EconomicGrowth96.0104.0112.0120.0197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012yearsGDPGrowthrateperyeartheLastTurningpointofChina’seconomicCycletheLastEconomicCycleofChinaHardlanding1989TheexpandingphraseoftheneweconomicCyclehasbeganin2001,whichwilllastmorethan15years.zTheaveragegrowthrateofGDPfor28yearswas9.4%.1.ContextofChina’sEnergyinFuture1.2DefiniteTrendsinfuturezDrivers:Industrialization--LargerthanthewholeofEuropeUrbanization--morethan500MillionpeoplewillrushintocitiesConsumerUpgrading—morecars,houses,etc.zResult:Highgrowthrate;MoreinfrastructureandutilityMoreemphasisonheavyindustrialsector,etc.----heavyindustrializationinthenext20years1.ContextofChina’sEnergyinFuture1.3EnergydemandandsupplyforecastingzEnergydemandcouldbe3–6.4billiontceby2020accordingtodifferentscenarioanalysis.z3to3.2billiontcewasplannedinNationalEnergyPlanningbutitseemstobehardtomeet.zIfthetrendofEnergyElasticitycontinuesasitdidfrom2001to2005,theenergydemandby2010willbe3.2billiontceand6.4billiontceto2020.Domesticpeakenergysupplywillbeonlyaround2.6billiontce.Coalpeakis2.2to2.4billiontons，Crudeoilis220milliontonsNaturalgasis200billionM3Hydroisreachedthepeak300-320GWaseconomicexploitationNuclear40-50GW，Wind20-30GWEnergyshortageandun-security1.ContextofChina’sEnergyinFuture1.4environmentalproblemsCoalproductionwas2.19billiontonsby2005Openpitcoalminesbyareawereabout400khectares;Annualdischargedpollutedminewaterwas2.2billionM3,wastewaterbycoalwashingwas40milliontons;Ganguewere150milliontons;Emissionsofcoalgaswere10billionM3.----Chinawillbecomethebiggestgreenhousegasemittingcountryinnearfuture.1.ContextofChina’sEnergyinFuture1.4onlywayleftforuszRenewableEnergySolar,Hydro-electricity,Nuclear,BiomasszEnergyefficiencyBuildings,Utilities,Appliances,TransportationzIncentivesthrough:Policy,investment,technology,socialresponsibility,etc.Governmentandprivate.2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlightedzMorepotentialzMoreprofitabilityzMoreenvironmentalbenefitzNewindustries,andincreasedbusinesscompetitiveness2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted2.1MorepotentialzE/GDPreduced60%inlast20yearsbutisstill3.1timestheinternationalaverage,9timesthatofJapan,4.3timesthatofOECDcountries;zEnergyconsumptionperunitofenergyintensiveproducthasbeenreducedalot,butisstill25—60%higherthaninternationallevel;zEnergysystemefficiencyis10percentlowerthanindustrialcountries.zGapofEEComparedwithAdvancedCase(%)Paper120,Largescaleofammonia31.2,Cement45.3,Copper65,Steel21.4,Coal-firedpower22.5,2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted2.1Morepotential(inChina)zTechnicallyfeasibleESpotentialis550Mtce(technologyimprovement)zEconomicallyfeasibletechnicalESisabout350Mtce---------NDRC2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted2.2Moreprofitabilityz$1investedinefficiencyresultsin$2worthofenergycostsavings----DavidB.Goldsteinz“Indeed,withreturnsof20-40%,manyEEprojectscanpaythemselvesoffrelativelyquickly.”----WorldBankzSuccessfulexperienceallovertheworld2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted2.3MoreEnvironmentalbenefits“IEA…estimatesthatover65percentofthereductioninGHGemissionsinthedevelopingcountriesoverthenext20yearscouldbedrivenbycontinuedimprovementsinenergyefficiency2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted2.4NewindustriesandbusinesscompetitivenesszExample:TOYOTAzChina’sLowemissionCARin2005zFuelandenergypriceswillreinforcethebusinesscompetitivenessofthosewhostrivetoraisetheirenergyefficiency,eitherintheirproductionprocess,orintheirproducts.2.EnergyEfficiencyshouldbehighlighted2.4possibletrendinfutureThepotentialofEEhasnotpeaked.Itisstillintherapidgrowthphaseandwilllastfornext3to4decades.Afterthat,Renewableenergywilltakethemainrole.2040~2050?EEREpeak3.Energyefficiencyinvestmentinchina1983,13%1995,7%2003,4%SupportandpolicycommitmentstoEEinchinahaveweakenedconsiderablyduringChina’stransitiontoamoremarket-basedeconomyDemandforEEinvestmentinfuture---LBNLz1990s,10~15%,40-60billionyuanperyear,3times.zCalifornia,1.5%ofelectricrevenue,15billionyuanpublicspending,and300billionyuanprivateinvestment.zNext15-20years,realizetheEEgoal,RMB150~200billionyearly.4.Establi