USDA(美国农业部)全球粮食作物数据(XXXX年2月更新)全文

Grain:WorldMarketsandTradeApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard-USDABrazilUsurpsUnitedStatesasLargestCornExporterUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalServiceCircularSeriesFG02-13February2013BrazilispoisedtoknocktheUnitedStatesoutofitshistoricalpositionastheworld’slargestcornexporterduetoaconfluenceofdevelopments:successivebumperharvests,reduceddomesticuse,availableexportcapacity,andhighU.S.cornpricesfueledbythehistoric2012drought.Brazilianfarmersrespondedtoelevatedcornpricesbyexpandingplantedareain2011/12,whichresultedinarecordcroplastseason.Thecurrentcropisalsoexpectedtobeabumperharvest.Meanwhile,thereisreportedlylesscorndemandfromthedomesticpoultrysector,furtheraugmentingexportablesupplies.Exportshavealsobenefitedinsofarassoybeanswereexportedearlylastyear,freeingupthetransportationinfrastructureforcorn.Overthepast4months,Brazilhasexportednearly14milliontons,morethandoubleU.S.shipmentsoverthesameperiod.TheUnitedStateshasslowlylostitsglobalexportmarketshare,fromahighof84percentin1979/80toaprojected25percentfor2012/13–thesmallestshareintheUSDAdatabase(1960/61).Despitesluggishexportsalesandshipments,U.S.pricesarestilluncompetitive.Hugeplantingsexpectedin2013/14combinedwithnormalweathershouldenabletheUnitedStatestobemorecompetitivenextyear.MMT01020304050602007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/13BrazilUnitedStatesBrazilSurgesasTopCornExporter012345Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13MMTCornExportShipmentsbyMonthBrazilUnitedStates*January2013U.S.shipmentsbasedonGrainInspectionsdataGrain:WorldMarketsandTrade,February20132TABLEOFCONTENTSWorldMarketsandTrade:CommentaryandCurrentDataWheat.................................................................................................................4Rice....................................................................................................................9CoarseGrains...................................................................................................14HistoricalDataSeriesforSelectedRegionsandCountries............................34EndnotestoGrain:WorldMarketsandTrade...............................................53TheForeignAgriculturalService(FAS)updatesitsproduction,supplyanddistributiondatabaseforcotton,oilseeds,andgrainsat12:00p.m.onthedaytheWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE)reportisreleased.ItisavailableontheFASwebsite().Thiscircularisreleasedat12:30p.m.onthesameday,togetherwithitsdownloadabledataset.February2013AllGrainSummaryComparisonMarketingYearWheatRice,MilledCorn2012/132011/122010/112012/132011/122010/112012/132011/122010/11ProductionUnitedStates(Jun-May)60.154.461.87.65.96.4316.2313.9273.8Other592.0642.2591.9441.5459.2459.5516.2568.5580.5WorldTotal652.0696.6653.6449.1465.0465.8832.3882.5854.4DomesticConsumptionUnitedStates(Jun-May)30.732.238.14.33.54.0285.0279.0262.6Other623.3657.1642.9439.2451.6462.3566.2582.3610.4WorldTotal654.0689.2681.0443.6455.1466.3851.2861.4873.0EndingStocksUnitedStates(Jun-May)23.520.218.81.51.31.028.625.116.1Other174.5176.3157.997.2104.2101.099.3105.9102.0WorldTotal197.9196.5176.798.7105.5101.9127.9131.0118.0TYImportsUnitedStates(Jun-May)2.63.03.50.60.70.70.70.82.5Other128.0147.6133.833.235.733.690.399.292.9WorldTotal130.6150.6137.333.836.434.391.0100.095.4TYExportsUnitedStates(Jun-May)36.028.129.03.23.33.545.238.424.0Other97.7125.2111.233.035.733.746.665.073.5WorldTotal133.7153.3140.236.239.037.191.9103.597.5Note:Consumptioninthistablehasnotbeenadjustedfordifferencesinmarketingyearimportsandexportsandthereforediffersfromglobaltotalsshownelsewhere.MarketingyearsforU.S.grainsare:Wheat(Jun-May),Rice(Aug-Jul),Corn(Sep-Aug).'MarketingYear'columnisgermaneforU.S.wheatonly.February2013Grain:WorldMarketsandTrade,February20134WHEAT:WORLDMARKETSANDTRADEOVERVIEWGlobalwheatproductionfor2012/13iscutslightlyasaresultofsmallercropsinBrazilandKazakhstan.Globaltradeisdownslightly.Indianexportsareraisedagainthismonthtoanewrecordasshipmentsandsalesremainstrong.U.S.exportsarecutthismonthonexpectationsofslowershipmentsattheendofthetradeyear.Theseason-averageU.S.farmpriceisunchanged.PRICES:Domestic:WheatpricesforallclasseswereupinJanuary.PoorweatherconditionspersistinHardRedWinter(HRW)growingareas.HRWandSoftRedWinter(SRW)pricesrose$4to$344/tonand$3to$312/ton,respectively.HardRedSpring(HRS)climbed$18to$364/ton.SoftWhiteWinter(SWW)jumped$16to$334/ton,assuppliestighten.200250300350400450$/MTU.S.WeeklyFOBExportBidsHRWSRWHRSSWWFebruary2013Grain:WorldMarketsandTrade,February20135TRADECHANGESIN2012/13SelectedExporters•Brazilislowered300,000tonsto1.2millionresultingfromasmallercrop.•EUisup500,000tonsto18.5millionasstronglicensesandsalescontinue.•Indiaisboosted500,000tonstoarecord8.5millionbasedonshipmentpaceandreportedsalesfromgovernmentstocks.•Kazakhstanisdown500,000tonsto6.5millionwithasmallercrop.•UnitedStatesiscut500,000tonsto29.0milliononexpectationsofslowershipmentsattheendofthetradeyear.Selecte