[能源研究与信息]低碳发展下的大气污染物和CO_2排放情景分析_上海案例

203EnergyResearchandInformationVol.20No.32004200403291980G-0212-06632:10088857200403013709CO2112221.,200233;2.,200237:LEAPBAUCO2202018%CO2SO2PM202020%72%78%:;LEAP;;;:X24;X321:A2003LowCarbonEconomy[1]Kaya[2]TPESEmissionGDPTPESCAPGDPCAPEmission××=EmissionCO2CAPGDPTPES200420138EmissionCAPGDPCAPGDPTPESGDPEmissionTPESOECD[3]20202020GDP2000860US$⋅-120002920US$~3000US$⋅-120009.85t202019t~25t[4~5]200312[6~7][3,8~12]LEAP11.1LEAP(Long-rangeEnergyAlternativesPlanningSystem)1.2LEAPLEAP200052000~20305201.3GDP10%2020~2030GDP6%13CO21391LEAPFig.1AnalysisviewofLEAPShanghaiBAU1.2t⋅-11.0t⋅-11.5t⋅-10.4t⋅-10.3t[13]20001GDPTable1GDPgrowthrateandpopulationinShanghai20002005201020202030GDP%109.0~8.08.0~6.06.5~6.0GDP45517170107002120038620%1.831.851.92.02.0%47.5445.543.541.840.0%50.6352.654.656.258.013221370142015201600300~35022GDP20003300US$20201.37US$20005300t202013890t4110t11960t1200t1930tGDP20042014020001.2t⋅GDP-120100.86t⋅GDP-120200.64t⋅GDP-105010015020025020002005201020202030t0204060801001201401601802000501001502002502000~2030MttSO22BAU3BAUFig.2EnergydemandinShanghai,Fig.3Energydemandandemissionscenarioin2000-2030BAUShanghai,2000-2030BAU2000~2020SO20.390.46GDPGDP3.7SO2200046t2020111t1.414t39t1.7333.1211999[14]2001[15]3.1.1200551%39%7%20008%20%3.1.24%200542%~43%903.1.323CO21412LEAPTable2DefinitionoflowcarbondevelopmentscenariosinLEAPmodel,ShanghaiBAUEECOAL+GAS+ELEC+WIND+()SO2+PM+++++++2010SO290%3.231%~2%202013890t11530t2360t200045%3Table3Energydemandunderlowcarbondevelopmentscenariostttt20004108543552754478A7840750693246274B7141716585705834C7141720285705234D7141701984614740E71417019846147402010F7141701984614740A119589309138898599B97658250115327243C97658318115325757D97658073113995204E976580731139952042020F97658073113995204:ABAU;BEE;C+;D;E+;F2004201424t⋅h-1600MW202011400t130t2490t200047%8600t5200t20100.86t⋅GDP-10.80t⋅GDP-120200.64t⋅GDP-10.54t⋅GDP-120001.2t⋅GDP-130%55%20038344Table4PrimaryenergydemandinShanghaiunderBAUandlowcarbondevelopmentscenariot200035971872335502359718723355022005407425404066543617254027076434201049092541567506375725407139701920206662254310493094110254114051780733.352020SO2111t53t58tPM39t15t24tCO23.2t2.5t6500tSO2PMCO242020200020002020SO2PM2000SO20.8%1.0%53CO21435CO2Table5LocalairpollutantsandCO2emissionunderlowcarbondevelopmentscenariosCO2tSO2tPMt20001.3646.114.4A2.2674.524.7B2.1166.621.6C2.0554.416.8D2.0050.315.4E2.0035.810.92010F2.0033.810.9A3.19111.138.6B2.7487.129.3C2.6056.916.9D2.5453.015.4E2.5430.88.42020F2.5424.68.4:ABAU;BEE;C+;D;E+;F100150200250300350400450500199520002005201020152020202520302035CO2MtABCDEF020040060080010001200140016001800199520002005201020152020202520302035SO2ktABCDEF4CO25SO2Fig.4CO2emissionunderlowcarbonFig.5SO2emissionunderlowcarbondevelopmentscenarioinShanghai,2000-2030developmentscenarioinShanghai,2000-203041020120042014422020BAU18%CO2SO2PM14%22%24%320205200tBAU3400tSO2PM50%60%4202018%CO2SO2PM202020%72%78%CO2:[1]EnergyWhitePaperOurEnergyFuture-CreatingaLowCarbonEconomy.DTI,UK.February2003.[2]KAYA.Y.ImpactofcarbondioxideemissioncontrolonGNPgrowth:interpretationofproposedscenariosA.IPCCEnergyandIndustrySubgroupC,ResponseStrategiesWorkingGroup,Paris,France,1990.[3]GIELENDolf,CHENChanghong.TheCO2EmissionReductionBenefitsofChineseEnergyPoliciesandEnvironmentalPolicies:ACaseStudyforShanghai,Period1995-2020J.EcologicalEconomics.2001,39:257-270.[4].J.,2003,256:4-10.[5].A.C,2004.[6],,,.J..,2002,268-270.[7].M..:,2001,126-158.[8],⋅,.MARKALJ.,2002,219:515-519.[9],.J.,2003,2210:682-686.[10]CIFUENTESL,BORJA-ABURTOVH,GOUVEIAN,etal.HiddenhealthbenefitsofgreenhousegasmitigationJ.Science,2001,293:1258-1259.[11]WESTJJason,etal.Co-controlofUrbanAirPollutantsandGreenhouseGasesinMexicoCity.[12]KANHaidong,CHENBingheng,CHENChanghong,etal.AnEvaluationofPublicHealthImpactofAmbientAirPollutionunderVariousEnergyScenariosinShanghai,ChinaJ.AtmosphericEnvironment,2004,38:95-102.[13].2003R.:,2003.3CO2145[14]21.21M.:,1999.[15].EB/OL.200138,2001.:ShanghaicasestudyWANGBing-yan1,CHENChang-hong1,HUANGCheng2,ZHAOJing2,DAIYi21.ShanghaiAcademyofEnvironmentalSciences,Shanghai200233;2.ResourcesandEnvironmentalEngineeringInstitute,EastChinaUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Shanghai200237,ChinaAbstract:Astheeconomypresentsafastgrowthtendency,Chinaisfacinggreatpressureinenergysupplyduetotheout-of-dateenergytechnologies,aswellastherelativelylowefficiencyofenergytransformationandutilization.Inordertoinvestigatetheeffectoflowcarbondevelopmentonenergysupplyandenvironmentimpact,thisstudy,takingShanghaiasacasestudy,forecaststheenergydemand,localairpollutantandCO2emissionsinBAUandlowcarbondevelopmentscenariosbyusingtheLEAPmodel.Theresultsshowthattheimplementationoflowcarbondevelopmentnotonlydepressurizesthepressureofenergysupply,reducestheemissionoflocalairpollutionobviouslyandimprovesthelocalairquality,butalsom