农业劳动力_老龄化_现象及其对农业生产的影响_基于辽宁省的实证分析

/0)))基于辽宁省的实证分析t:2003)2006,/0,/0,/0;/0/0,/0,:;;;,2000520051%5,601012%,656196%20051%,6011103%,657169%(,2008),,,60%~70%,,,/0(2004)2010601715%,20202415%,20303318%,,,,/0,,()(),,,(,2006),11Rosegrant,M.W.,R.G.Schleyer.Waterpolicyforefficientagriculturaldiversification:market-basedapproaches.FoodPolicy,1995,(20):203~22321Hearne,R.R.,K.W.Easter.Waterallocationandwatermarkets:ananalysisofgains-from-tradeinChile.WorldBank.WorldBankTech2nicalPaperNo.315.Washington,D.C.:WorldBank,1995.:75~7931Bjornlund,H.FarmerparticipationinmarketsfortemporaryandpermanentwaterinsoutheasternAustralia.AgriculturalWaterManagement,2003,(63):57~76)12)5农业经济问题6(月刊)2009年第10期/0/0,2003)2006,/0/0;/0一农业劳动力/老龄化0现象分析1(%)200320042005200616~2031231521921920~30151514181118111130~40201018172012181340~50291028103010291150~6024142517261729116071991381491610010010010025050(%)20032004200520065067176511641961135032133419351138171001001001002003)2006,24,18906580/0,()(1),,/0;,,,(18~50,18~45)(16~1751~60,16~1746~55),,161,30,,40~60,6010%,,,,/0/0,5050*,2,,41Hanak,E.Stoppingthedrain:third-partyresponsestoCaliforniapswatermarket.ContemporaryEconomicPolicy,2005,(23):59~7751Landry,C.MarkettransfersofwaterforenvironmentalprotectioninthewesternUnitedStates.WaterPolicy,1998,(1):457~46961,..(),2008(2):66~7171..,2003:44~8981..,2004:34~3591..,2004:61~62101,.-.,2007(4):47~54111..,2006(15):90~91121,,..,2006(4):41~46131,,..,2004(4):60~67,129141.))).,2006(2):32~40,70(作者单位::,,200433;:,,200234):)13)李旻等:农业劳动力/老龄化0现象及其对农业生产的影响*50,18~50,18~45,,/05030%,,/0,/0二农业劳动力/老龄化0对农业生产的影响()/0/0,,50,50,,,1,30;,5050,:/0(5050%)/0(5050%),,,/011(3),,,,3,/0/0,/03()200320042005200661304168715161870110011601230124313521603105314501100107015001362126118921612106013001330120012101060102010601034169410361566103010301160137013921281181215621590105010201300135114111492124118801210121011001180101010101030101)14)5农业经济问题6(月刊)2009年第10期21,,,4,/0/0,96%,1%/0,,31(5)/0,/041,(6)6,/0,/,/0,,/0,4()20032004200520064963525058825721:47785090571955843754925314810670834222459850214848:4065445448794731485665561098877605(/)20032004200520066975799590397291:66847363876662665877711275236889:5500698671646590,/0/0,)15)李旻等:农业劳动力/老龄化0现象及其对农业生产的影响6(,)20032004200520066077191593115281891489488127:3925161378610347291125935137111661113212195121411019110131121261117411611142519311544244199439812751571306189183:290613830621793279165398214391851010111151101809134910310168101211148112911391135()/0,/0,,/011Cobb)Douglas/0/0,,,,/0,,,,(,2009),,,Cobb)Douglas:Q=eA0+A1D1+A2edu+A3train+A4ratiom/f+u#FVB1#VCB2#LandB3#LaborB4(1):lnQ=A0+A1D1+A2edu+A3train+A4ratiom/f+B1lnFV+B2lnVC+B3lnLand+B4lnLabor+E(2):Q;FV,;VC,()(),;Labor;Land,;D1,/00,1;edu;train;ratiom/f21,,21137,P1%,,()16)5农业经济问题6(月刊)2009年第10期),,,7317()7,T20192,P1%,()/D10,,0,/0:(1),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2),,,,/0,7TPln01003615017801438ln01015452**213901017ln01956971**10418701000ln-0102856-116801092D1-0102145**-210101045010210061188010600101348911230121701004702113501178200401169131**1215101000200501114587**713901000200601115315**71420100011483198**2019201000:**5%/0,:,,,,,50,,)17)李旻等:农业劳动力/老龄化0现象及其对农业生产的影响,/0,,,,:,,/0,,,,,,/0P01060,,,,()三主要结论及政策含义,/0,/0;/0,/0,,/0/0,,/0,,,,/0;,/0/0,,,,,,/0,/011,1/01,2006(1):31~392111,2006,24(1):52~5431,1/0)))1,2009(5):61~694111,2004,1(2)51,11,2008,31(2):68~72(作者单位::,,110161;:,,310018):)18)5农业经济问题6(月刊)2009年第10期IssuesinAgriculturalEconomy(Monthly)No110/2009MAINCONTENTSAdheretothePathofAgriculturalModernizationwithChineseCharacteristicsCHENXiaohua(4)ResearchontheProblemsoftheAgriculturalWaterRightExchangeinChinaWANGKeqiangandLIUHongmei(7)Therearesomeobstaclespreventingtheexchangeofagriculturalwaterrigh,tsuchasnotcomplete2lyunderstandingagriculturalwaterrightcontents,notcompletelyunderstandingstate2ownedagriculturalwaterrigh,tpoorlyrealizingthewaterrightthrougheconomicmethod,disputingwiththeoriginaldistri2bution,lackingofrationadministration1Thereareseveraldeepcausesforthem,suchasbeinguncer2tainofagriculturalwaterrigh,texistingexterioreffectofwater,poorlyoperating,beingshortofinfor2mation,unclearlyannouncingofwaterrigh,tpayingtoomuchonadministrationthanlaw,existingproblemsofreformofagriculturalwaterright1Someadvicearegivensuchasstrengtheninglaw,propa2gandizingthewaterrigh,tstrengtheningstate2ownedwaterrigh,tstrengtheningwaterrightcapitalizationadministration,doingwellwaterrightoriginaldistribution,constructingwaterrightregisteringsystem,strengtheningwaterrightcontractpslawandadministration1AgriculturalLaborForceAgingPhenomenonandtheEffectonAgriculturalProduction:EvidencefromLiaoningProvinceLIMinandZHAOLiange(12)ByexploitingtheruralhouseholdtrackingsurveydatainLiaoningprovincefrom2003~2006,thispaperempiricallyanalyzedagriculturallaborforceagingphenomenonandtheeffectofagriculturallaborforceagingonagriculturalproduction1Theconclusionsareasfollows:first,agriculturallaborforceinLiaoningprovincehasdisplayedagingphenomenon,andthetrendofagriculturallaborforceagingstillfurtheraggravatedrecently;second,agriculturallaborforceagingdidnotfavorthedevelopmentofagri2culturalproduction1Theagricul