农业结构调整对全国粮食安全的影响分析3

:2004-08-18:,,3(KZCX1-SW-19-01);(CXIOG-B02-05)31,211,2(1.,100101;2.,100039),5,2005-2010,;;;F304.1A1002-2104(2005)02-0065-041996-1998,,,,[1],,,1998-2003,,16%1998,63%,200389%,,,11.11.1.1,1990-2000,602.7104hm2,354.2104hm2,58.8%,,,,,,200266%67%,1.1.2,2002,20021996,11.5%,1996-20029.6%20001.95%20024.62%,2001199821.6201.4[2],1997-2000,,1013637,360160,55.5%2003,,,1.1.3WTO,WTO,,,[3],,,2000-2002,104.16108139.4562005152CHINAPOPULATION,RESOURCESANDENVIRONMENTVol.15No.22005108113.2108kg,67.6%90.5%68.6%2003,207.4108kg,,1.2,[1],,,1997-2001,3.1%,1.2.11997-2003,6.3%,,,,,,7:2:1,,,200050%,20%,50%[1],,36%11%1.2.2,1997-2000,23.5%,60%,55%[1]WTO,:,,,1.2.3,,,10000,4000,1300,1000,50%,40%,,,21:17:62,366,,40:40:20,[4]22.12000,48001084900108kg2003930108kg,,30,20042005,95%,90%,,1995,198.5108kg,4.25%,[5],,3%,97%2.2,,,,,,1996,2732.5,1357.3,383.8,131.4108kg,4605108kg,376kg[6]1996-2003,,,,3.4%,200012.7,201013.75463.5108kg,397kg(1)662005212005-2010Tab1TheforecastingamountoffooddemandofChinafrom2005to2010(108)(108kg)(108kg)(108kg)(108kg)(108kg)(kg)200513.1982798.081588.75517.51205037.53381.7200613.3092821.571628.47535.611205118.96384.6200713.4212845.251669.18554.361205202.21387.6200813.5342869.141710.91573.761205287.35390.7200913.6472893.251753.68593.841205374.42393.8201013.7622915.541797.53614.631205463.463972.32.3.12005-2010,,,2005201075%,0.82%(2)22005-2010(:108kg)Tab2Thegoalyieldunderdifferentself-supportingratefrom2005to2010(unit:108kg)200520062007200820092010(%)7272.673.273.874.4753627.023715.873807.263901.293998.044097.697%3518.213604.393693.043784.253878.13974.6795%3445.673530.073616.893706.223798.143892.722.3.2[7]1987-199711,333104hm2,60%1990-2000,354.2104hm2,150.6104hm22000,138371104hm21996-2000,66.7104hm2,13.3104hm220108330104hm2(650104hm2),,85%90%,70671047533104hm22005-2010,3,(97%)32005-2010Tab3Theforecastingfoodyieldinthemainfoodsupplyregionsfrom2005to2010200520062007200820092010(kgPhm2)4903.550015101.55203.553075413.5(108kg)3595.33667.33740.63815.43891.73969.63(1),1998-200316%199863%,200389%,(2)WTO,,,,(3)97%,76:,,(:)(References)[1],.[J].,2003,58(3):381389.[LiuYansuiLuDadao.ThebasictrendsandregionsaleffectofagriculturaladjustmentinChina[J].ActaGeographicalSinica,2003,58(3):381389.][2].[M].:,2002.[LuXueyi,.ResearchonChinasag2riculture,countrysideandpeasants[M].Beijing:Socialsciencesliteraturepress,2002.][3],.[J].,2000,(5):1721.[HuangJikun,MaHengyun.Thecomparisionofthecostofthemainagriculturalproductsbe2tweenChinaanditscompetitors[J].Chinaruraleconomy,2000,(5):1721.][4],.[J].,2000,(6):1217.[JinZhaohuai,LiGuangyu.Theoreticalconsiderationandcountermeasuresonagricultureindustrializa2tioninthemaingrain-producingareas[J].Journalofnortheastnormaluniversity.2000,(6):1217.][5].[M].:,2002.215223.[TangZhengping(ed).Researchonworldagriculture[M].Beijing:Chinaagriculturepress,2002.215223.][6].[J].,2002,(9):1218.[Thein2vestigationgroupofruralsocialandeconomyofChinastatisticsbureau.Researchonfoodsecurityandadjustmentofagriculturestructure[J].Theworldofinvestigationandresearch,2002,(9):1218.][7]HongYang,XiubinLi.CultivatedlandandfoodsupplyinChina[J].LandUsePolicy,2000,17:7388.AgriculturalStructureAdjustmentandItsEffectonChinasFoodSafetyCasestudyofthemainfoodsupplyregionsWANGDa2wei1,2,LIUYan2sui1,LUYan2xia1,2(1.InstituteofGeographicalSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China;2.GraduateSchoolofChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100039,China)AbstractThemainfoodsupplyregionsplayaveryimportantroleinensuringChinasfoodsafety.Theirfoodproductionaccountsformorethan70%ofthetotalamountofChinaand85%forallofthecommoditygrain.However,theChinesegrainsectorfacespressurefrombothexternalcompetitionandinternalproblems,forexample,theprocessofurbanizationandadjustmentofagriculturestructureengrossingmuchfarmland,degradationofeco-environment,andsoforth.Currently,Chinasagriculturalstructureadjustmentisinprogress.ThispromotesthedevelopmentofChinasagricultureand,ontheotherhand,leadstothedecreaseoffoodproduction.Undertheanalysisofthefoodsupplyanddemandinthepastseveralyears,aconclusionismade.thatChinawillbethreatenedbyfoodsupplyinthecomingfewyears,ifthede2creasingtrendoffoodproductioncantbeprevented.Furthermore,thepaperpredictstheamountofChinesefooddemandfrom2005to2010.Takingthisforecastandthefood-producingproportionofthemainfoodsupplyregionsonnationalscaleintoconsideration,anotherforecastoftheproducingamountofthemainfoodsupplyregionsconsistentwiththedemandofthestateunderdifferentself-supplyingrateislisted.InordertoensureChinasfoodself-supplyingrateabove97%,aseriesofmeasureswhichaimatimprovingthefood-producingconditionsofthemainfoodsupplyregionsandenhancingthegrainyieldsthereshouldbecarriedout.Keywordsmainfoodsupplyregions,agriculturalstructureadjustment,foodsafety8620052