江苏和吉林农村家庭能源消费差异及影响因素分析

,,(,210095):,,,;,,;,,;,,:;,:;;;;:X24:A:1673-4831(2009)03-0030-05RegionalDisparitiesandInfluencingFactorsofRuralHouseholdEnergyConsumptionACaseStudyofJiangsuandJilinProvinces.ZHOUShu2dong,CUIQi2feng,WANGCui2cui(CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,NanjingAgri2culturalUniversity,Nanjing210095,China)Abstract:FieldsurveysoftheruralareasofJiangsuandJilinforenergyconsumptionwereconductedtoexploreregionaldisparities.ResultsshowthatJilinismuchhigherthanJiangsuintotalenergyconsumptionpercapitabecausetheformerneedsmoreenergyforheatinginwinter.Intherespectofbio2energy,Jiangsuusesmorecropstalks/strawswhereasJilin,richinforestresources,burnscropstalks/strawsaswellasfirewood.Intherespectofcommercialenergy,Jiangsude2pendsmoreonelectricalpower,petro2products,andgasolwhereasJilinmoreoncoal.Intherespectofrenewableenergy2biogas,JiangsuachievedbetterresultsthanJilininpopularization.Withthehelpoftheeconometricmodel,factorsaffect2ingruralhouseholdenergyconsumptionwereanalyzed.Resultsshowthatfactors,suchaspercapitanetincome,percapi2tafarmlandarea,percapitanumberofdurablehouseholdelectricalappliances,percapitamotorcycleandmajorproductivefixedassets,andregion,arethemajoronesaffectingtheruralenergyconsumption,meanwhilefinancialandtechnicalsupportfromthegovernment,percapitanetincome,percapitaheadofpigsinpen,andlocationofthehousehold,agri2culturalzoneorforestregionaremajorfactorsinfluencingthefarmerhouseholdsinadoptingbiogasornot.Keywords:ruralhousehold;energyconsumption;influencingfactor;Jiangsu;Jilin,,,,,,(810m3),,[1-6],,,,,,,1,20071230d1220,13()39()250,:(Z200709):2008-07-27E2mail:cuiqifeng199@sina1com.,2007-03.2009,25(3):30-34JournalofEcologyandRuralEnvironment250,225250,250,227,,222006()()(1)2006,,,1%,1246199kgce,801135kgce,,,12006Table1Quantityandstructureofenergyconsumptionpercapitainruralhousehold/kgce/%/kgce/%447118551808701696918241917652138742136591532714231421281331012935215944100375161301129111511137219117171581531981912273157519094185111847615861141216111576129015011580120016901061158012001690106801135100.001246199100.002,211,2006,255180%69182%,447118870169kgce,52138%,,3142%;,,,128133kgce,10129%;,42140%,2122006,352159kgce,44100%,,91115kgce,219117kgce,,,153198kgce,73157kgce;,94185kgce,;2132006,1158kgce,0120%0169kgce,0106%,,3(MRA),,,Probit,01,31131111,,2,:Y=0+1X1+2lnX2+8X8+(1)133:31112Eviews511,3,150125kgce,,2Table2VariablesusedintheregressionanalysisofinfluencingfactorsoftraditionalenergyconsumptionpercapitainruralhouseholdsYkgce904187736114X1(=0,=1)01480127X2510811718792113X3m23911315116X4hm201180105X510271575141X601160106X710301110115X8312611274523Table3RegressionanalysisoftheinfluencingfactorsoftraditonalenergyconsumptionpercapitainruralhouseholdtC4741871145011127X11501253334142010000lnX24112633310159010000X3217731181010741X41581423332159010096X531123333101010042X691103332117010318X734158332140010173X8-5311633-212801015933333310%5%1%t452,R20189,F448103C,,,2,1%,41126kgce,,,,1m2,2177kgce,,,,,1hm2,158142kgce,,,,100,3112kgce,,,,1,91106kgce;1000,34158kgce,,,1,53116kgce31231211::,,,2110,2325,,,,44Table4VariablesusedintheregressionanalysisoffactorsinfluencingruralhouseholdsinadoptingbiogasY(=1,=0)01440125X1510811718792113X201642178X3a71157103X4%01190103X5(=1,=0)01330122X6(=1,=0)01260119X7(=1,=0)01440125X8(=0,=1)01480127452Probit:Prob()=F()(2)(2),F(),01,:=0+1(X1)2+2X1+3X2++9X8+(3)31212,,,:P=G[0+1(X1)2+2X1++i+1(Xi+X)++9X8]-G[0+1(X1)2+2X1++9X8](4),Eviews511,,(5),:,,,9217124,,,;,,[7]118136%,,,,,[8];,,,1a,10192%5Table5RegressionanalysisofthefactorsinfluencingruralhouseholdsinadoptingbiogaszC-11383-1166010975X21-4197E-1033-2155010109X19116E-06331196010502X20137332136010181X3012231169010903X4-01083-1193010536X5-0189333-2171010067X6-015533-2120010276X711103333183010001X801453117201081633333310%5%1%tLR219143,R20182,251,201C,,,,,,,1%,3197%333:,,,23109%,,13188%,,,,,,,49114%,15148%,,10,42,(),,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,:[1]CATANIAP.ChinasRuralEnergySystemandManagement[J].AppliedEnergy,1999,64(1/2/3/4):229-240.[2]MUH,KONDOUY,TONOOKAY,etal.GreyRelativeAnalysisandFuturePredictiononRuralHouseholdBiofuelsConsumptioninChina[J].FuelProcessingTechnology,2004,85(8/9/10):1231-1248.[3],,,.[J]1,1998,14(1):142-147.[4],,,.[J]1,2006,24(4):46-49.[5],.151[J].,2008,36(1):280-282.[6],.[J].,2007(11):60-65.[7],.[J].,2006(3):28-34.[8],,,.[J].,2004(12):85-95.:(1961),,,,E2mail:[e-mail]4325