武夷山市旅游客源市场研究

华侨大学硕士学位论文武夷山市旅游客源市场研究姓名：刘邓申请学位级别：硕士专业：旅游管理指导教师：黄远水20071201IIIAbstractTouristmarketresearchisnotmerelytheimportantdecisionsupporttothedevelopmentoftravelindustry,itistheessentialcontentthattouristsconsulttotravelinformationbeforegoingonatourtoo.Itiscloselyrelatedtoaseriesofsocieties,economicdevelopmentproblems.It'sapieceoftheoryandpractice,microcosmicandmacroscopicresearchfield.Openingupanddevelopingthisresearchfieldapromotionforthedevelopmentoftourism,butagoodtryoftourismisnotonlyapplication.Thestudyappliesthetheoriesoftourismmarketing,geographyandsystemtheoryandsooninordertoanalyzethetouristmarketofMtWuyi,asoneofthefourmixedheritagesofchina,whichbasesinternalandexternaldocumentssummarizeontheregionaltouristmarketing.TheframeofthispaperismadeupbysevenChapters:Chapter1:Introduction.Itanalyzesthebackground,meanings,frame,researchapproachoftheproblemandinnovationordersandstudy’scrux;Chapter2:RelevantdocumentsretrospectofthetouristmarketofMtWuyi;Chapter3:toanalyzetheregionaltouristmarketthatisthemattingofthenextChapter;Chapter4:ItanalyzesthetouristmarketofMtWuyi;Chapter5:toinquireintothedevelopmentevolveregulationofthetouristmarketofMtWuyi;Chapter6:ItCombinesafewmodelstoestimatethetouristflowofMtWuyi,andputsforwardexpandingmarket’scounter-plan;Chapter7:Conclusion.TheChapter4,5and6istheemphasesofthisstudy.Themainresearchconclusionofthisthesisshows:ThetouristmarketofMtWuyiisplacedinamarketgrowthperiodatpresent,isalsotheopportunityofthemarketdevelopment.Thesituationofmarketdevelopmentisgoodandthedistrictstructureisgraduallyreasonable.Themarketexpandscontinuouslyandtourscalecontinuouslystrong.Foregroundpleasedperson.Theinnovationsofthisthesisarelainin:Towieldpertinentmethodtodividedevelopingstage,thegradeandtofitpositionofthetouristmarketofMtWuyi,andtoforecasttouristflow,toopenoutspace-timeevolutionlawsofthetouristmarketofMtWuyi.Keywords:touristmarket;touristflow;evolveMtWuyi12120200435200421111311411100786969%1026313004522GOOGLEBAIDUTOM21CN34://://djq.wuyishan.gov.cn/://travel.wuyishan.gov.cn/5://://(statisticalpackageforthesocialscience)SAS6,SPSSSYSTAT7)EXCELOFFICE1SPSSEXCEL82936SAS(StatisticalAnalysisSystem)7SYSTATSystatSoftware,Inc8.[Z].2005197819851986199119921998199920029.[Z].200564123711937:24:10()()2198424246(6)10.[M].20008(10624)1112(21)11.[M].200212219691(21)2102001()40%60%()()13(Marketing)13.[M].200311::1212..2005()123452213Delphi111966L.J.CramponijbijijGPATD=21CesarioandKnetsch(1976)exp()[(1)][]jijijjiibGaADpkTK=+222Smith(1983)()zLnIzabfd=−×23[()]zLnIzabLnd=−×24()zLnIzabmd=−×253G21100()niiGTx==×∑2614211015232(Delphi)233nn4yabx=+275(LogisticCurve)1xKabY=+286Kolmgorov157.GM(1,1)(GreyModel)4GM(1,1)GM(l,1)1,2GM(l,1)8(Backgroundtrend-line)()()()91419141619701899(LBodio)(SulmovimentodeiforestieriinItaliaasuldenarochevispendono)1923(A.Niceforo)(IImovimentodeiforestrieriinItalia)1926(RLBenini)(SullariformadeiforestieriinItalia)2050(masstourism)19671969(HLBLRodgers)(BritishPilotNationalRecreationSurvey)1978ALSzwichtenberg157016171819Pearce20Boniface21Watt22Heath23WallMancini241988199815,.[M].199916SmithSLJ.RecreationGeography.Longman,198217SmithSLJ.TourismAnalysis:Ahandbook.longman,198918GunnCA.Vacationscape:DesigningTouristRegions.VanNostrandReinholdCompany,198819PearceD.TourismToday:AGeographicalanalysis.Longman,198720PearceD.TourismOrganization.Longman,198721BonifaceBG,et.TheGeographicalofTravelandTourism.Heinemann,198722WittSFet.TourismMarketingandManagementHandbook.PrenticeHall,198923HeathE,wallG.MarketingTourismDestination:AStrategicPlanningApproach.JohnWiley&SonsInc,199224ManciniM.sellingDestination:GeographyfortheTravelProfessional.South-WesternPublishingCo,19921715025198626198627198928198890291994301997339425.[J].1986,6(3)26.[J].1986(1)127..198928..1988.7329..199449230.[J].19975221880%500()2504313219983319992903419963520003619981986372000208039031.——[J].1996.51432.[M].199833.[J].199934.[J].1996.51135.[J].200036.[J].199837.[J]..2000,20(1)1938199719972000199920013940(1998)412002421996199743200044200238.[J].199713339.[J].1997173.[J].2000205.[J].1999182.[J].()200124340.[J]..19984341.[J].200211242.[J].199943.[J].200011244.[J].200220()(31)2000=3121()(32)22123431623311617-2930-4445-6061/..2000602433..2000251()()()()22612345(34)(Secondarydata)(Primarydata)272812937′22″--118°19′44″27°27′31″--28°04′49″2798“”31019791982198719993041251121977619881199219931132004200934101350025023493.6%22188.4%25019778.8%15361.2%310.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%19791982198519881991199419972000200320062006442917018281242463584.13%95.87%1979200695.90%4.10%4190.17%200635.61%28.17%36.22%G4556.788.3%G91.5865%G62.483044162941.84%38.59%456017.39%4521100()niiGTx==×∑GixiTn320.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%1616-2930-4445-6060304016294560421616-2930-4445-606046038.59%41.85%17.39%1.63%0.54%0.55%41.53%39.54%16.39