罗兰贝格美国旅游研究

U.S.TRAVELANDTOURISMOUTLOOKANDTRENDSResearch,Idea&Promotion’s3rdLargestRetailSalesIndustry–$555billiontotalexpenditures–$95billionintaxrevenueforfederal,stateandlocalgovernmentsOneofAmerica’sLargestEmployers–Employs7.2millionpeopledirectly.–Tourismis1st,2nd,or3rdlargestemployerin30statesandtheDistrictofColumbia–$158.4billionintravel-generatedpayrollSource:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmerica(TIA)WhereWeWereTumblingfromthePeaksBetween2000and2003•Domesticbusinesstraveldown15%•Domesticairlinetraveldown14%•OverseastraveltotheU.S.down30%InternationalVisitorArrivalstoU.S.fromKeyCountries2003%ChangeRecoveryto(inmillions)2003/20002000ExpectedCanada12.7-14%2007UnitedKingdom3.9-162006Japan3.2-37Beyond2007Germany1.2-34Beyond2007France0.7-37Beyond2007Brazil0.4-53Beyond2007Argentina0.2-72Beyond2007Source:OfficeofTravelandTourismIndustriesBrightSpotDomesticLeisureTravel–Slowbutsteadygrowth–Stayclosertohome–Highwaytravel–Shortgetaways–Visitstosmalltowns,ruralareas–EconomizeTravelPerformance–FirstThreeQuarters2004DuringJan–Sept,2004,domestictravelupnearly3%Leisuretravelup2.0%,exceededby6.8%gaininbusiness/conventiontravelStronggainsinairandhotelvolumeover2003InternationaltraveltoU.S.exceedingexpectationsSource:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmericaVisitorTrendsOccurringMoreinPastYear10%23%29%35%55%66%70%85%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%TraditionalTravelAgentsFartherfromHomeSpendingLessSpendingMoreClosertoHomeBookingLastminuteBookingOnlineOnlineInfoRequestsSource:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmericaPercentofTIAMembersReportingNTAOperators’Products7%20%26%19%29%25%10%26%31%34%35%44%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%HardAdventureParticipatorySportsAlumniLearningReunionSoftAdventure20032001Source:NationalTourAssociationPercentofNTAOperatorsRVTravelStrong7.8%ofallU.S.vehicle-owninghouseholdsownanRV,upfrom7.3%in19977.2millionRVsontheroad,comparedto6.4millionin1997RVShipmentsUp14%in2004RVRentalsUpNearly33%in2003and2004Combined6.4%ofRVRentalsbyInternationalVisitorsSource:RecreationVehicleIndustryAssociationNationalParksandPublicLandsNationalParkVisitationup4%throughNovember2004;SaleofParkPassesup8%SeeAmerica’sNationalParkspartnershipwithTIA,NationalParkServiceandNationalParkFoundationTravelPolicies–AirBusinessTravelers2004and200220%21%26%25%20%26%34%28%45%40%46%42%56%50%79%73%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%RequireUseSpecificAirlinesRestrictionson#ofPeopleRequireUseSpecificHotelsRestrictionsonClassofHotelUpperManagementApprovalLimitsonPerDiemRestrictionsonAirfareclassAnyofListedPolicies20022004Source:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmericaandNationalBusinessTravelAssociationPercentofAirBusinessTravelersAlternativeTechnologiesUsedByBusinessTravelersinPastYear,200431%41%26%35%11%18%10%12%0%10%20%30%40%50%Anyofthe3TeleconferencingWebconferencingVideoconferencingTotalFrequent(10+Trips)Source:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmericaandNationalBusinessTravelAssociationPercentofBusinessTravelersEffectivenessandEfficiencyofTechnologytoReplaceTravel,2004and200219%65%37%71%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%20022004EffectiveEfficentSource:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmericaandNationalBusinessTravelAssociationPercentofAirBusinessTravelers–TopTwoBoxesAUTOTRAVELPERFORMANCEU.S.autotravelup2%throughSeptember2004Stillholdingupdueto:–Shiftsfromair,especiallyforshort-distancetrips–Closer-to-hometravel–Increasinginterestinfamilytravel–IncreasedinterestinRVsAirlineTurbulenceDomesticairtravelup5%over2003,butstill10%below2000.Internationalisup14%over2003,butbetteryet,up5%over2000.ExchangeratesmakeU.S.evenmoreofabargainUSAir,UnitedandATAinbankruptcyAirlinelosses$8billionin2004;$23billionbetween2001-2003U.S.HotelPerformanceStrengthensIn20041.0%4.6%3.7%4.0%7.8%8.8%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%SupplyDemandOccupancyADRRevPARRoomRevenueSource:SmithTravelResearch%ChangeoverPriorYearChangestoDomesticAdvertisingandMarketingPrograms48%35%47%59%63%70%63%75%34%39%40%44%47%51%53%56%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%MoreAdvertisingChangedtargetedconsumermarketsFocusmoreondomesticMoremarketing/promotion/PROfferedspecials/discountsMorepartnershipsFocusonclosermarketsMoree-Marketing20042005Source:TravelIndustryAssociationofAmericaAmong90%ofMemberswithDomesticMarketingProgramsWhereareWeGoing?Americans’EconomicAssessmentsAreMixed41%nowrateeconomicconditionsaspositive,upslightly48%sayeconomygettingbettervs.42%whosayitisgettingworseNoticeabledeclineincitingeconomyasmostimportantproblemfacingAmerica–now30%vs.38%-40%inautumnof2004Only33%saysit’sagoodtimeto“findaqualityjob”,vs.62%whosayit’sabadtimeSource:GallupSurveysU.S.LeisureOutlookLeisuretravelintentionsremainstrongTrendsofthelastfewyearswillcontinuebutsomereturntomorenormalpatternsGrowthinairtravelexceedingthatofautotravelContinuedfocusonfamilyandconnectionsbutgreaterparticipationinotheractivitiestooSpendingup4%in2004over2003DomesticLeisureTravelWillContinu