趋向在美国食品供应链子(PPT34)(1)

TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChainDr.KennethC.ClaytonUSDAAgriculturalMarketingServiceWorldUnionofWholesaleMarketsSeptember19,2005TrendsintheU.S.FoodSupplyChainIntroductionOverviewofTraditional“Competitive”SupplyChainStructure•TheSupplyChainofYesteryearOverviewofEmerging“Partnership”SupplyChainStructure•TheSupplyChainofTodayReasonsforChange:•ChannelBlurring•ChangingConsumerPreferences•RetailDifferentiation•RetailConcentration•GrowingImportanceofFoodservice•TechnologicalCapabilities•ChangingStructureofProductionAgricultureTheSupplyChainofYesteryearSources:BrianSilbermann,PMA,March2005Dr.DonBowersox,MichiganStateUniversity“Competitive”StructureTraditionalsupermarketsdominatedretailmarketplaceManyshipperssoldtomanybuyersinwholesaleandretailmarkets;nolargebuyersdrovethemarketBuyerstendedtobemoretransactionandprice-oriented;notopentocooperativepartnershipswithsuppliersDailysalestransactionsweretypical“Newtechnology”equaledafaxmachineandPLUstickers“Anticipatory”supplychainsysteminplacewheresuppliers•Forecastproductsales•Buythecomponentsandmanufacturetheproducts•Warehousetheproducts•Selltheproductsproduced•DelivertheproductstotheconsumerTheSupplyChainofToday“Partnership”StructureBuyersseekingmorelong-termrelationshipswithsupplierstoensuresteadierpricing,supplyavailability,greaterqualitycontrolTraditional“cultural”dividebetweenprocurementandmarketing/merchandisingdepartmentsdisappearingaslong-termsupplyrelationshipstakeprecedenceovershort-termpricenegotiationsTechnologicalcapabilitiesallowsuperiorexchangeofdatabetweenfoodsuppliersandbuyers,whichpermitsmoreprecisemonitoringandcalculationsofsalestransactionsanddemandrequirementsTheSupplyChainofToday“Real-time”informationexchangepermitsmovementtowardso-called“responsive”businessmodel,wherebysuppliers•Firstselltheirproducts•Buythecomponentsandmaterialsnecessarytoproducetheproducts•ManufacturetheproductsanddelivertocustomerUnderthefullyresponsivebusinessmodel,thereisnoinventory.Thesystemworkssoquicklythatretailerscansellproductstoconsumersthattheretailerhasnotevenhadtopayforyet.Forfoodproducts,growingverticalintegrationofU.S.productionagriculture—includingcommoditiessuchasproduce—increaseopportunitiesforstrategicalliancesacrossthesupplychainOccurringagainstbackdropofgrowingdiversityofretailvenueswherefoodproductsaremarketedtoconsumers,includingawayfromhomeReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringConsumersarerejectingtraditionalsupermarketsinfavorofalternativefoodretailoutlets:•Traditionalgrocerychannelhasexperienceddeclineseveryyearsince1995In2004,theaverageU.S.householdmade69tripstotraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystores,comparedto92tripsin19952004markedthefirstyearthattraditionalsupermarketsorgrocerystoresexperiencedlessthan100%householdpenetration•Traditionalgrocerystoresrepresented52%ofthenation’sgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,downfrom81%in1994Shareisforecasttoslipto46%by2009ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringSupercenters,dollarstoresbiggainersinpastfewyears:•Supercentershavegainedthemostintermsofnumberofaverageannualshoppingtrips(27persurveyedhouseholdin2004,comparedto15in1999)17%ofsurveyedcustomersnowreportthatsupercentersaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenue•Dollarstoreshavegainedthemostintermsofhouseholdpenetration67%ofsurveyedhouseholdsvisitedadollarstorein2004,comparedto52%in1999•Nontraditionalfoodsellers,includingsupercenters,dollarstores,andwholesaleclubs,represented32%ofgroceryandconsumablesalesin2004,upfrom9%in1994–expectedtoriseto39%by2009Sources:ProgressiveGrocer,April2004FMI,May2004ReasonsforChangeChannelBlurringDirect-to-consumermarketingoutletsgainingtraction•Valueofdirect-to-consumersalesgrew37%between1997and2002•2%ofsurveyedfoodshoppersnowindicatethatfarmersmarketsaretheirprimaryfoodshoppingvenue•Farmersmarketsreportedtohavenearlya4%marketshareoftheorganicfoodmarketSources:OrganicTradeAssociation2004ManufacturersSurvey2002CensusofAgricultureReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesTheaverageshoppershopsat2.2storeseachweektoobtainalltheiritems,andthefactthattheyarewillingtogotodifferentstorestopurchasevariousitemssuggeststhatsupermarketsaremissinganopportunitytocapturemoreconsumerdollarsbydeliveringandcommunicatingagreaterselectionandvaluetotheirshoppers.─PhilLempert,SupermarketGuru(2002)ReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods•OrganicfoodsU.S.salesoforganicfoodgrewfrom$3.5billionin1997toreachmorethan$10billionby2003$4.3billionor42%oftotalorganicsalesin2003consistedofproduceitemsAveragegrowthrateof18%projectedbetween2004-2008,comparedwithgrowthof2%to3%fortheconventionalfoodindustrySource:OrganicTradeAssociationReasonsforChangeChangingConsumerPreferencesGrowingpopularityofspecialtyandvalue-addedfoods(continued)•Locally-grownfoodsLargeincreasesindemandforlocalfoodsacrossallrestaurantcategories.73%ofAmericanssayitisimportanttoknowwhetherfoodisgrownorproducedlocallyorregionallyMorethan75%ofconsumerssurveyedin2003insevenMidwesternstatesandthemetropolitanBostonandSeattlear