耕地细碎化背景下农户地块整合分析

———315100430073Logit。。Logit、。、。、。、、、、。。20137.56312015。8.6%75.9%3。、。20022010。、“”“”“”。2008。、。。、、。—44—20184DOI:10.13246/j.cnki.jae.2018.04.004。、、。、、。。、535Logit。、。207080。。。、、。。。Binns1950、。Schultz1953。Agarwal1972、、。2002、、。2011、、、。、、、。·1817。。I、Ⅱ、、。、。、。·1972。。。。。—54—、。20052007。。。、、。。1TotalＲevenueAverageＲevenueMarginalＲevenue。13。。。。。。。。。。、。。—64—20184。、、。、。、。、78%。、。602。、。、。。24.6%。33、*3。33、3。600。3～42～3。、。。30、。20＊＊。、3、11、25。20153—811640535。5353～675.8%40～7080.3%40～7084.5%2～479.6%95.7%6558.731000076.3%。1～574.3%19—74—＊＊＊、、。1539.5158444.5。、、202.2%1.1%2～783%8.6%1280.8%2.251.5～274.8%。、、3123。。3。、P=1P=0。Logit。Logit。P=EiY=1/Yi=11+e－Yi=11+e－α+βXi1lnPi1－Pi=α+βXi2PiXiβ。、LogitlnPi1－Pi=α+β1N+β2BS+β3Dt+β4Q+β5AGE+β6EDU+β7LIＲ+β8LF31。P1P0。。N、BS、DtQ。。、、。。—84—20184、、。AGE、EDU、LFLIＲ。。。。。、、。1N+BS/—Dt+Q1=2=3=—AGE—EDU+LIＲ%+LF—、78.3%52.3%36.5%2～311.2%3。2～33。2Logit。—94—2N5354.092.25118BS5351.290.930.277Dt535592.57226.05501662.5Q5351.920.2912.5AGE53553.8511.682592EDU5357.071.68612LIＲ5357.071.68612LF5351.691.1017Stata12.03。3VariableCoefficientStd.Err.t－StatisticProb.N2.78700.36417.66＊＊＊0.000BS－1.28180.3617－3.54＊＊＊0.000Dt0.00140.00091.590.111Q0.15540.50380.310.758AGE0.01680.02020.830.405EDU0.07690.11450.670.502LIＲ－0.73980.6373－1.160.246LF－0.62770.2244－2.80＊＊＊0.005C－5.44282.2769－2.39＊＊0.017PseudoＲ2=0.6776Loglikelihood=－85.7254Prob.＞chi2=0.0000*、＊＊、＊＊＊10%、5%、1%。。2.7871%。。。－1.2821%。。。—05—20184－0.62771%。。、。、、、。60015。。。。。。、。、3。、。。。。。。、Falco2010201620172017。2015Evelin20162016。2016。—15—、、、。。、、。、。。、。1.AgarwalS.K.EconomicsofLandConsolidationinIndia.NewDelhiChand19722.BinnsB.O.TheConsolidationofFragmentedAgriculturaHoldingsanFAOStudy.WashingtonD.C.FoodandAgricultureOrganiza-tionoftheUnitedNations19503.EvilinJ.LandＲeformLandFragmentationandPerspectivesforFutureLandConsolidationinEstoniaLandUsePolicy2016115734～434.FalcoS.D.PenovI.andAleksievA.AgrobiodiversityFarmProfitsandLandFragmentationEvidencefromBullgaria.LandUsePol-icy2010273763～7715.HazarikaJ.andAlwangJ.AccesstoCreditPlotSizeandCostInefficiencyamongSmallholderTobaccoCultivatorsinMala-wi.AgriculturalEconomics200329199～1096.SchultzT.W.TheEconomicOrganizationofAgriculture.NewYorkMcgrawHill19537..Logistics———、、.201161178～11858.·..19729...20073158～16310...2015362～7111...·2016268104～11312...200585～1013...2007222～2514..———.2002322～2815...201425～3116..、———354.2017483～9417..———“——”.201691129～114318...200864～919..———.2016211104～11320...20111035～3921...20081163～67—25—20184Farmers’WillingnessforLandConsolidation———EvidencesfromMajorGrainProducingCountiesinHenanZHAOXiaoruiZHANGGuanghongAbstractFarmersarethebasicunitofagriculturalproduction．Studyingtheirawarenessanddemandforlandtransferandconsolidationcanprovidefundamentalknowledgeabouttheissues．U-singdatafromthemaingrainproducingcountiesinHenanprovincethispaperstudiedfarmers’willingnessforlandconsolidation．Alogitmodelisregressed．Theresultshowedthatfarmershavestrongdesireforlandconsolidationgiventherealizedlimitationsoflandfragmentationthewilling-nessisnegativelyrelatedtotheavailabilityoflaborforce．Tofurtherpromotelandtransferandcon-solidationformodernagriculturelanduserightadjustmentcouldbeaneffectiveapproachbutfarmers’choicesandrightsshouldbeprotectedwithfullrespects．KeywordsLandfragmentationLandconsolidationFarmersLogitregression—35—