向3G演进的移动通信市场研究

52()Vol.5No.220036JournalofNanjingUniversityofPostsandTelecommunications(SocialScience)Jun.2003:10082603X(2003)02200212063G2G3G(,210003):2G3G,,3G:3G;;:F623:A:2002209205:(9901):,,,,:(1);(2);(3);(4);(5)()[1];(6);(7)(1)(SMS),(2)i2modei2mode,3000,,,(3):/,,,(SMS),,WAP,,,,,,,,,,©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,1.,,,,E2mail,,,80%90%,,,(,),,,,,,,2.,,,GPRS,,NTTDoCoMoi2mode,,,500,10000,,i2mode,,,,,,,,1.,WTO,,,1:119902002(:)19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120021.834.7517.6963.82156.8362.9685.31323238643308526144812.06160%272%261%146%132%89%99%83%75%97%69.8%42%:(2001),,:(1);(2);(3);(4);(5);(6)[2],:2.2G3G,2002222()2003©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.15585,11.20%,,2002200721.6%(CAGR),20073.34,,2G200197%200782%2.5G3G0.3%18%:(1),;(2)3G;(3)3.,,,70%GSM,IP,,,,[2],,,,,22(:)199819992000200123483803665210383150521187440989468812782271.728.3:,,,,,,,,,,,4.,,,,,,,?,,,GDP,,,,,,GDP,,,,322:3G©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,3:3(:)200220032004200512.8%15.6%17.3%21.4%31.7%33.4%36.8%40.2%15676189032144725103:,20016,,,2005,19.6%,(35%)40%,,,,,,:,,,3G3G,2G,3G,,3G,3G3G,3G,,,;,E2mail:IntranetVPN(),(LCS),IP,(ISP)(ICP),,(OSA),,:(SimpleMessage)16Kbps;,64Kbps;,64Kbps2Mbps,,[3],,/,,,,,WAP,,2.5GGPRSCDMA20001x,42()2003©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,2005,442005(:)30%480060005%80010001.5%240300:,15%,5%10%,34,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.,,,2.,,,,:+++:,,,,,,,,::::3.3G3G,,3G3G,,,,,,,522:3G©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ISPICP,,,,,,,,,:[1]STROUSEKG.StrategiesforSuccessintheNewTelecommuni2cationsMarketplace[M].Boston:ArtechHouseInc,2001.[2],.[N].,2002-05-29.[3].:[N].,2002-07-26.StudyontheChangesofMobileTelecommunicationMarketfrom2Gto3GResearchGroup(DepartmentofManagementEngineering,NanjingUniversityofPostsandTelecommunications,Nanjing210003,China)Abstract:Onthebasisofstudyingthechangesofmobileoperatorsexternalenviromentfrom2Gto3G,thispaperanalysesthetendencyofChinesemobiletelecommunicationmarket,includingthecompetitivepatternof3G,thescaleofconsumersandbusinessforecast.Keywords:3G;marketpattern;tendency(:)62()2003©1995-2003TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.