Toward Successful ISD in Developing Countries Firs

TowardSuccessfulISDinDevelopingCountries:FirstResultsfromaNigerianRiskStudyUsingtheDelphiMethodAnjaMursua&HASoriyanb&KCOlufokunbic&[e-mail]&[e-mail]&[e-mail]&[e-mail]äskylä,FinlandDepartmentofcomputerscienceandinformationsystemsaObafemiAwolowoUniversity,NigeriaDepartmentofComputerScienceandEngineeringbcUniversityofKuopio,FinlandComputingCentredAbstractTheliteratureofsoftwareriskmanagementindicatesthattheriskoffailureininformationsystemdevelopment(ISD)canbemitigatedbyidentifyingandanalysingthethreatsofsuccess.Moreover,thegoalswhenimplementingnewtechnologyinAfrica,concerningsocio-economicdevelopment,aremoremanifold.WehavedevelopedaholisticapproachforstudyingsuccessfulISDinAfrica,whichincludesriskresearchinsoftwareprojectsaswellasinformationsystemimplementationandusecontexts.InthispaperwepresenttheprocessofaDelphi-studyinNigeria,whichaimstoproducearank-orderlistofmostcommonriskfactorsinsoftwareprojects.ThefirstresultsofriskfactorsinsoftwareprojectsinNigeriaareintroduced.Keywords:ISriskmanagement,Riskassessment,Risk,DelphitechniqueBRTKeywords:EL08,EE0504,EI0221,AF0801IntroductionThenumberoffailuresininformationsystemdevelopment(ISD)projectsishighinspiteofdevelopmentininformationtechnology(IT)andtheincreaseintheknowledgeandtheexperienceoftheusers.ArecentsurveybytheStandishGroup(accordingtoConrowetal.1997)of365respondentsand8380commercialsoftware-intensiveprojectsindicatedthat53%oftheprojectswere‘challenged’:theywereoverbudget,behindschedule,orhadfewerfeaturesandfunctionsthanoriginallyspecified,and31%oftheprojectswerecanceled.Onaverage,theseprojectshadcostincreasesof189%andscheduleslippageof222%versustheoriginalestimatesatthetimetheywerecompletedorcanceled.Inaddition,thecompletedprojectshadanaverageofonly61%oftheoriginallyspecifiedfeaturesandfunctionsRiskmanagementhasbeenfoundtobeanimportantpartofthesuccessofsystemdevelopmentprocesses.Mostanalysesofthesoftwaredisasterprojectshaveindicatedthatifthehigh-riskelementshavebeenidentifiedandresolvedintime,theproblemswouldhavebeenavoidedorconsiderablyreduced(Boehm1989,Charette1989,Ropponenetal.1997).InthedevelopmentliteratureitisagreedthatIThasbecomeamajorpreconditionforsocio-economicdevelopmentinAfrica.However,thequestionofhowISDispracticedinAfricaisverylittlestudied.WeestablishaprojecttostudyISDpracticesandrisksinAfrica,usingNigeriaasthecase.Asapartoftheproject,weareintheprogressofaDelphistudytoexaminewhatarethemostcommonriskfactorsinNigeria,andtodeterminewhichofthoseriskfactorsaremostimportant.ThispaperpresentstheDelphimethodusedinriskstudyandthefirstresults.Therestofthepaperisstructuredasfollows.Firstly,wereviewtheliteratureofsoftwarerisksaswellasITinAfrica,andpresentsomefactorsbehindourresearchcontext,Nigeria.Secondly,webrieflypresenttheresearchapproachandobjectives.ConsequentlywepresentthemethodologyoftheDelphistudy.Thenthefirstfindingsarereportedanddiscussed.Finally,intheconclusionwesummarisethefirstresultsandthecontributionofthisstudy.ISDRisksInthewesternliteraturethefailuresinsystemdevelopmentusuallyrefertocostoverruns,projectdelays,andunmetuserneeds(Barkietal.1993).Theconceptofriskhasseveraldefinitionsininformationsystems.Webster’sdictionarydefinesitas‘thepossibilityoflossorinjury’.Wedefinesoftwareprojectriskhere,intermsofBarkietal.(1993),asaproductofuncertaintyassociatedwithprojectriskfactorsandthemagnitudeofpotentiallossduetoaproject.Ariskfactorcanbedefinedasacontingencycapableofcreatingaseriousthreattothesuccessfulcompletionofaninformationsystemsdevelopmentproject(Keiletal.1998).Sincethe1970s,severalarticleshavebeenpublishedconcerningrisksassociatedwithsoftwareprojectsinwesterncountries(McFarlan1981,Barki1993).Boehm’s(1989,1991)‘topten’listhasbeenamongthebestknownandusedlistsofcommonriskfactors.Anyway,manyoftheseriskstudiesarebasedonanecdotalevidenceortheyarelimitedtoanarrowportionofthedevelopmentprocess.Therehasbeenalackofsystematicattemptstoidentifysoftwareprojectrisksbyinquiringtheopinionsofthosewhoactuallyhaveexperienceinmanagingsuchprojects.(Keiletal.1998)AninternationalDelphistudywasconductedinthreedifferentsocio-economiccontexts(HongKong,USA,Finland),whereexperiencedsoftwareprojectmanagersidentifiedandrankedthemostimportantrisks.Thestudywasconductedtoobtainsomeinsightsintotheculturalvariationinriskitemperceptionandranking(Keiletal.1998).ThereisstillnocomprehensivestudyofthecommonrisksinISDinanydevelopingcountry.Therehavebeensomestudiesinthe90saboutthekeyissuesinIS/ITmanagement(Pervanetal.1998)andaboutthesoftwareindustry(Hassan1998).Thelistofup-to-dateriskfactorsandtheconsciousnessofpossibleenvironmentalbiasesarevaluableresultsforprojectmanagementanywhere.InformationTechnologyinAfricaThecreationofalocalsoftwareindustryindevelopingcountries,indeedinAfricaalso,isessential,becauseitisseenasapotentialcatalystforsocio-economicdevelopment(Hassan1998,Heek1996).Thegoalswhenimplementingnewtechnologyarestillmanifold.Theimplementationmustgowithminimaldisruption,itmustensureacceptancefr