Climate Change what do we know about the IPCC

1ClimateChange:whatdoweknowabouttheIPCC?MikeHulmeandMartinMahonySchoolofEnvironmentalSciencesUniversityofEastAngliaNorwichNR47TJReviewArticleforProgressinPhysicalGeography5180(plus)words12April2010AbstractThisisthefirstofaseriesofthreebiennialreviewsofresearchonthesubjectofclimatechange.ThisreviewisconcernedwiththeUNIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC):itsoriginsandmandate;itsdisciplinaryandgeographicalexpertise;itsgovernanceandorganisationallearning;consensusanditsrepresentationofuncertainty;anditswiderimpactandinfluenceonknowledgeproduction,publicdiscourseandpolicydevelopment.TheresearchthathasbeenconductedontheIPCCasaninstitutionhascomemostlyfromscienceandtechnologystudiesscholarsandasmallnumbercriticalsocialscientists.TheIPCC’sinfluenceontheconstruction,mobilisationandconsumptionofclimatechangeknowledgeisconsiderable.ThereviewthereforeendsbyencouraginggeographersofsciencetoturntheirresearchandscholarshiptounderstandingtherolesplayedbytheIPCC,andequivalentinstitutionalprocessesofclimatechangeknowledgeassessment,inthecontemporaryworld.KeyWordsClimatechangeIPCCUncertaintyConsensusSciencegovernanceLearning2IntroductionItisoveradecadesinceIwrotethelastofmyannualreviewarticlesforProgressinPhysicalGeography(Hulme,2000).ThesubjectoftheeightreviewsIwroteduringthe1990swas‘globalwarming’.Thesubjectofthesenewbiennialreviewsistobe‘climatechange’,thechangeofnomenclaturereflectinganinterestingchangeofperspectiveandframing.Thesignificanceoflanguageinsocialdiscourse,publicperceptionsandpolicyframingofclimatechangehasrecentlybeenexplored,respectively,byNerlichetal.,(2010),Whitmarsh(2009)andNisbet(2009).ThesubjectofthefirstofthesenewreviewsforProgressinPhysicalGeographyistheUnitedNationsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).Theinstitutionreceived,jointly,the2007NobelPeacePrizefor‘itsefforttobuildupanddisseminategreaterknowledgeaboutman-madeclimatechangeandtolaythefoundationsforthemeasuresthatareneededtocounteractsuchchange’.Yetduring2010theIPCChascomeunderunparalleledpublicandpoliticalscrutiny(Bagla,2010;Schiermeier,2010).Itisthereforetimelytosurveythescopeanddepthofacademicresearchintothenatureofthisinstitution–itsoriginsandmandate;itsmobilisationofexpertise;itsgovernance;itsrepresentationofuncertainknowledge;anditsimpactandinfluence.Iamalsopartlyinspiredtothistaskbythe‘spatialturn’inthehistoryandphilosophyofscience(e.g.Shapin,1998;Livingstone,2007;Finnegan,2008):spacemattersinthemakingandmobilisingofknowledge.Theliteraturereviewedherecomesmainlyfromscienceandtechnologystudies,policystudies,politicalscience,environmentalsociology,philosophyofscienceandfromafewareasofacademicgeography.OriginsandMandateTwolarge-scaleexperimentsarebeingconductedintheworldtodayinrelationtoclimatechange.OneofthesewasfamouslydescribedbytheAmericangeophysicistRogerRevelleinthe1950s:‘Humanbeingsarenowcarryingoutalarge-scalegeophysicalexperimentofakindthatcouldnothavehappenedinthepastnorbereproducedinthefuture’(Revelle&Suess,1957:19).Theotherexperimentisalsoonewhichhasnotbeforebeenattempted.Itisaworldwidesocio-culturalexperimenttoseewhetherthewholepanoplyofhumanbehaviours,preferencesandpracticescanbedirectedtowardsachievingoneover-arching3goal:tochangethetermsofRevelle’sexperimentbybringingtheworldwideemissionsofgreenhousegasesunderdirectedmanagement.Wedonotknowtheoutcomeofeitherexperiment,butwhatconnectsthemtogetherispredictiveknowledge...putativeknowledgeabouthowfutureclimatemayevolveoverdecadestocenturies.Centraltotheassessment,validationandmobilisationofsuchknowledgeclaimsaboutclimatechangehasbeentheIPCC.TheIPCCwasofficiallyconstitutedduringitsfirstmeetinginGenevainNovember1988(IPCC,1988).Thescientificanddiplomaticpoliticssurroundingtheformationofthisnewinstitutionalprocessofknowledgeassessmentinthelate1980shavebeendescribedandanalysedbyHechtandTirpak(1995),Franz(1997),Agrawala(1998a,b),Skodvin(2000a)and,inarathermorepersonalandanecdotalmanner,byBolin(2007).Yet,otherformsofinstitutionalprocessesforbringingclimatechangeknowledgetobearontheinternationalpolicyprocesscouldhaveemergedatthetime.Forexample,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation,theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)andtheInternationalCouncilforScientificUnionscouldeachhaveendedupwiththeresponsibilityforsuchaknowledgeassessment,asforawhiledidtheAdvisoryGrouponGreenhouseGaseswhoseoriginsandfunctionswerestronglyinfluencedbynon-governmentalorganisations.AsAgrawala(1999)argues,theemergenceinthelate1980softheIPCCasthepoliticallyfavouredmeansofclimatechangeknowledgeassessmentowedmuchtoAmericanuneaseaboutUNEPandtotheirdesiretofindameansofbalancingtheadvocacypositionsofthefossilfuelandenvironmentalistlobbiesintheUSA.MorecriticalreadingsoftheemergenceoftheIPCChavealsobeenoffered.Boehmer-Christiansen(1994a,b,c)arguedthatestablishingtheIPCCasa‘singleestablishedsource’ofinformationaboutclimatechangesuitedaconvergenceofscientific,politicalandsomebusinessinterests.Shepointedtodangersforscientificpracticeandscientificinstitutionsfromscientistsbeingusedtofeedthisnewpoliticallychargedact