供求关系对房地产价格的影响分析

供求关系对房地产价格的影响分析摘要随着我国经济的快速发展，房地产业对国民经济的基础作用、先导作用和支柱作用日益突出，商品房作为房地产中最主要的组成部分，其发展、变化和运行情况直接影响整个房地产行业的发展，进而影响着国民经济的运行和国民的生活质量。近几年来，我国大部分大中城市的房地产价格达到了相当的高位，并且呈现出持续上涨之势，严重超过了我国绝大多数国民的心理承受能力和实际购买力，对此，我国的房地产价格亟需进行调控和抑制，以稳定房地产市场。房地产价格持续快速上涨的主要原因是商品房的供需失衡，因此，本论文选择商品房的供给与需求为研究对象，再根据一般供求定理，利用计量经济学知识和EViews运行软件，通过从中国统计局收集到的样本数据，引入房地产价格与商品房供给，房地产价格与商品房需求的关系模型，并通过经济学检验、变量的拟合优度、回归方程的显着性和异方差性检验等方法来验证模型的正确性。根据房地产价格与商品房供给和需求模型的研究分析结果，结合目前我国房地产市场的发展现状和存在的问题，为我国抑制房价持续上涨、稳定房地产市场提出几点合理的政策性建议。关键词房地产价格；供需失衡；模型分析；政策性建议TheAnalysisontheImpactofSupplyandDemandonRealEstatePriceAbstractWithChina'srapideconomicdevelopment,theroleoftherealestateindustryonthebasisofthenationaleconomy,theleadingroleandpillarincreasinglyprominentroleincommercialrealestateasthemostimportantcomponentofitsdevelopment,change,anddirectlyaffecttheoperationoftheentirerealestateindustry,therebyaffectingtheoperationofthenationaleconomyandthepeople'squalityoflife.Inrecentyears,mostofourcitiesrealestatepricesreachedafairlyhighlevel,andshowingarisingtrend,thevastmajorityofourcitizensseriouslythanmentalcapacityandtheactualpurchasingpower,which,China'srealestatepricesurgentneedforregulationandsuppression,tostabilizetherealestatemarket.Realestatepricescontinuedtoriserapidlymainlyduetorealestatesupplyanddemandimbalance,therefore,thispaperchoosehousingsupplyanddemandastheresearchobject,accordingtothegeneralsupplyanddemandtheory,knowledgeanduseofeconometricsoftwareEViewsrunsthroughthecollectionfromtheChineseBureauofStatisticstosampledata,theintroductionofrealestatepricesandhousingsupply,housingpricesandhousingdemandrelationshipmodel,andthrougheconometrictesting,goodnessoffitvariables,thesignificanceoftheregressionequationandheteroscedasticitytestsandothermethodstovalidatethemodelcorrectness.Accordingtorealestatepricesandthehousingsupplyanddemandmodelofanalysisresults,combinedwiththecurrentdevelopmentstatusofChina'srealestatemarketandproblemsforChinatocurbhousingpricescontinuedtorise,stabilizetherealestatemarkettomakeafewsensiblepolicyrecommendations.KeywordsRealestateprices；Supplyanddemandimbalance；Modelanalysis；Policyrecommendations.目录摘要......................................................................................................................IAbstract...............................................................................................................II第1章绪论........................................................................................................11.1研究背景.....................................................................................................1.2研究内容.....................................................................................................1.3研究方法.....................................................................................................1.4研究意义.....................................................................................................第2章房地产市场的相关概念及理论基础......................................................2.1房地产的相关概念.....................................................................................2.1.1房地产价格..........................................................................................2.1.2商品房的供求关系..............................................................................2.2房地产的相关理论.....................................................................................2.2.1商品房的供求定理............................................错误!未指定书签。2.2.2商品房供求函数模型..........................................................................第3章我国房地产市场发展现状及存在问题..................................................3.1我国房地产市场发展现状.......................................错误!未定义书签。3.1.1投资增速放缓但总量创新高..............................................................3.1.2房地产价格持续上升..........................................................................3.1.3商品房需求依然旺盛..........................................................................3.2我国房地产市场存在的问题.....................................................................3.2.1房地产制度不完善刺激了市场的投机性..........................................3.2.2住房保障体系相对滞后......................................................................3.2.3我国住房供需失衡..............................................................................第4章商品房供求函数模型设计与实证结果分析..........................................4.1商品房供求模型设计与样本数据收集.....................................................4.1.1商品房需求与供给函数模型的设计..................................................4.1.2商品房供求函数模型样本数据的收集..............................................4.2商品房供求函数模型参数的估计...........................错误!未定义书签。4.2.1商品房需求函数模型参数的估计......................................................4.2.2商品房供给函数模型参数的估计......................................................4.3商品房供求模型的检验与修正...............................错误!未指定书签。4.3.1商品房需求与供给函数模型的检验..................................................4.3.2商品房需求与供给函数模型的修正..................................................4.4商品房供求函数模型实证结果分析.........................................................4.4.1商品房需求函数模型实证结果分析...............................