某医药公司产品组合优化(内部资料)

FromPipelinesToPortfoliosMinDingPennsylvaniaStateUniversityJehoshuaEliashbergUniversityofPennsylvaniaChoiceSymposiumJune4-8,2004June4-8,20042OutlineOptimizingNewDrugPipeline–onebusinessopportunityDingandEliashberg,2002,ManagementScienceFromPipelinestoPortfolios–manybusinessopportunitiesSometheoreticalinsightsAnempiricaldemonstration--GlaxoSmithKlineJune4-8,20043TermsUsedinPresentationIndicationsAlsoknownasdiseaseEachindicationisconsideredasonebusinessopportunity•e.g.,AIDSWeusetheterms“pipelineorproject”torepresenttheNPDstructureforagivenindicationWeuse“approach”torepresentaspecificway(e.g.,acompound,abiologicalmolecule)ofdrugdevelopmenttailoredforagivenindication.TherapeuticalClassesAlsoknownastherapeuticalareas,groups,orcategories•e.g.,Anti-infectiveproductsEachclasshasmanydifferentindicationsWeusetheterm“portfolio”torepresenttheNPDstructureformanydifferentindications,withinoracrossdifferenttherapeuticalclasses.Aportfoliohasmanydifferentpipelines(orprojects).June4-8,20044OptimizingNewDrugPipelineAnExampleBristol-MyersSquibbwantstodevelopapreventiveHIVvaccine...NPDinPharmaceuticalIndustryAlternativeapproaches:subunitvaccine,recombinantvectorvaccine,peptidevaccine,virus-likeparticlevaccine,plasmidDNAvaccine,“nakedDNA”vaccine,whole-inactivatedvirusvaccine,live-attenuatedvirus,etc.Question:HowmanyalternativeapproachesshouldthefirmpursueateachNPDstage?Pre-clinicaltrialClinicalPhaseIClinicalPhaseIIClinicalPhaseIIIlaunch1June4-8,20045OptimizingNewDrugPipelineModelOutputForeachphaseindevelopment,wederivedtheexpectedreward,variance,andlikelihoodofhavingasuccessfuldrugcandidate.Forexample,forPhaseIII,theyare,respectively,Wesolvefortheoptimalnumberofapproachestobesupportedateachphaseindevelopment11110111[()][1(1)][(0)]nEnpEsnc2101111)]0([])1(1[)1()]([11sEppnVnn1)1(1)(111npnLJune4-8,20046OptimizingNewDrugPipelineOneKeyInsight-APatternofUnderspending?(DingandEliashberg,ManagementScience,2002)TherapeuticalClassIndicationE($m)LeadfirmactualpipelinepipelinestructurerecommendedbyourmodelInfectiousAIDS130BMS21?552NSAIDArthritis3078Monsanto22212103Depression2036Merck22118177Migraine655EliLilly11111114NeuropharmacologicalClassAlzheimer’sDisease6773Novartis11?20197Arrhythmia94Pfizer111222HighCholesterol1484Warner-Lambert11?16104CardiovascularClassHypertension5174BMS11117115June4-8,20047FirmsTargetMultipleBusinessOpportunities–asurveyofnewdrugportfoliosin1450firmson12/31/2002NumberofIndicationsTargetedbyaFirmDecember31,2002050100150200250300350400450500020406080100NumberofIndicationsNumberofFirmsNumberofIndicationsSupported12-56-1213-2931-81NumberofFirms4337032445020Mostfirmsworkonmultipleindications.June4-8,20048FromPipelinestoPortfoliosAconventionalapproachtoportfolioconstructionPortfolioconstructionisthesumofpipelines.Process:1.Developa(notnecessarilyoptimal)pipelineforeachbusinessopportunityindependentlyandcalculatetheexpectedvalue2.Rankordereachbusinessopportunity3.Buildaportfoliobysupportingthosebusinessopportunitieswhoseexpectedvaluesareaboveathreshold(e.g.,marginalreturn,IRR)Example:SmithKlineinmid-1990s(HBR,1998)June4-8,20049FromPipelinestoPortfoliosStateofArtPractice–GlaxoSmithKline,2003CardiovascularandUrogenitalMetabolicandViralDiseasesMicrobial,MusculoskeletalandProliferativeDiseasesNeurologyandGastrointestinalPsychiatryRespiratoryandInflammationSixCentersofExcellence(TherapeuticClass)forDrugDiscovery(CEDDs)IndicationsSupportedInEachCEDD9(Stroke)and3(ED)5(Obesity)and7(HIV)7(Sepsis),2(osteoporosis)and9(cancers)11(Alzheimer's)and5(Irritablebowelsynd.)9(Depression)4(Asthma)and3(Rheumatoidarthritis)June4-8,200410FromPipelinestoPortfoliosWheredoesthestateoftheartpracticesucceedandfail?Succeeded:Correctlyrecognizedtheimportanceofcross-projecteffectsinstructuringportfolioDevelopedthenecessaryorganizationalstructure(e.g.,3tierstructureatGSK)Failed:Riskhasnotreceivedsufficientattention,ENPVisthemostcommonlyusedmetric.Norigorousportfolioevaluationprocessandoptimizationmodelexist.June4-8,200411FromPipelinestoPortfoliosResearchObjectivesUnderstandhowriskandexpectedrewardchangeasthenatureofapipelinechanges.Today:HowPhaseIIIvarianceandexpectedrewardchangeasthedegreeofcorrelationchanges–Indicationlevel–ArealevelDevelopoptimalportfolio,givenacertainmanagerialobjectiveToday:AnapplicationforGlaxo-Smith-Kline(GKS)’sPhaseIIIsubportfolioJune4-8,200412FromPipelinestoPortfoliosIndicationLevel--ScenarioScenario:Oneindicationwithtwoapproaches,whosesuccessisconditionalonovercomingacommonobstacleIndication1Approach12Approach11p1:jointprobabilityofovercomingthecommonobstacleinPhaseIIIANDotherobstaclesrelatedtoPhaseIIIp1i:probabilityofovercomingthecommonobstaclerelatedtoPhaseIIIJune4-8,200413FromPipelinestoPortfoliosIndicationLevel–SomeInsights(Risk-Reward)114pVarianceExpectedReward112pVarianceExpectedRewardCase1.Lowp1Case2.Highp1Asp1iincreases,bothvarianceandexpectedrewardatPhaseIIIincreaseAsp1iincreases,variancedecreasesandexpectedrewardincreasesatPhaseIIIJune4-8,200414FromPipelinestoPort