A cognitive model of decision making Chunking and

ACognitiveModelofDecisionMaking:ChunkingandtheRadarDetectionTaskConstantineP.Papageorgiou1KathleenCarleyDecember13,1993.CMU-CS-93-228SchoolofComputerScienceCarnegieMellonUniversityPittsburgh,PA152131BBNSystemsandTechnologies70FawcettStreetCambridge,MA02138AbstractWepresentRadar-Soar,amodelofacognitiveagentlearningtoclassifyaircraftasfriendly,neutral,orhostilebasedonadiscretesetofcharacteristics.ThisagentisbuiltusingtheSoarcognitivearchitecturewhichhasasoneofitsmainfeaturesapowerfulformofexplanation-basedlearningcalledchunking.Weshowthattheperformancethisagentexhibitsisextremelyhighandsurpassesthatofacomparableagentthathaspreviouslybeenbuilt.Keywords:articialintelligence,machinelearning,organizationalbehavior,Soar,patternmatching,radardetectionContents1Introduction32Soar52.1HighLevelView:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::52.2ModularDecomposition:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::62.3Chunking:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::63TheRadarDetectionTask84TrainingandTesting105Model115.1ModelsofBeliefChange:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::115.1.1ReinforcementModel::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::115.1.2InformationProcessingModel::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::115.1.3ConstructuralModel:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::125.2AgentModel:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::125.2.1GeneralFeatures:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::125.2.2DecisionMakingProcess:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::135.3SoarImplementation:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::145.3.1HighLevelSpaces::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::145.3.2LowLevelSpaces:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::146ExperimentsandAnalysis176.1Experiments::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::176.1.1Baseline::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::176.1.2TrainingwiththeLTS::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::186.1.3TrainingwiththeSTS::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::186.1.4TrainingwiththeSSTS:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::216.2Analysis::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::216.2.1Performance:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::216.2.2Chunks::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::247Conclusion251ListofFigures5.1Radar-SoarProblemSpaces:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::156.1PercentageofCorrectClassicationsWithNoChunkingduringTraining::::::::::::186.2PercentageofCorrectClassications(LTS)duringTraining:::::::::::::::::::196.3PercentageofCorrectClassications(LTS)duringTesting::::::::::::::::::::196.4PercentageofCorrectClassications(STS)duringTraining:::::::::::::::::::206.5PercentageofCorrectClassications(STS)duringTesting::::::::::::::::::::206.6PercentageofCorrectClassications(SSTS)duringTraining::::::::::::::::::216.7PercentageofCorrectClassications(SSTS)duringTesting:::::::::::::::::::226.8PercentageofCorrectClassicationsduringTesting:::::::::::::::::::::::226.9AgentPerformanceTable::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::236.10SSTSData::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::232Chapter1IntroductionOrganizationalperformanceisanissuethatpervadesmanyaspectsofoursociety.Thevalueofthissubjectbecomesevidentuponrealizingthatmostsocietalinteractionscanberegardedasinteractionsbetweendierentorganizations.Takingthisonestepfurther,theperformanceoftheseorganizationsisofcentralimportance;ifbadorincorrectdecisionsaremademostofthetime,theorganizationwillfail,whereasmakingamajorityofgoodorcorrectdecisionsleadstothesuccessoftheorganization.Italsobecomesobviousthattherearemanyinternalandexternalfactorsorstressorsthatcancausetheperformanceofanorganizationtodeteriorate.Thus,organizationalperformanceis,ingeneral,notconstant.Trainingmaymitigatetheeectofsuchstressors.Trainingproceduresareofspecialinteresttoorganizationswhereperformanceismorecriticalthaninotherorganizations.Thetargetedorganizationsarethosewhichareinvolvedincertaindangerousorcriticallyimportanttasks;forexample,itiseasytoseethatmoreisatstakewhendesigningatrainingprocedureforanagentwhoisguidingairplanesfromacontroltowerismorethanonewhoisseparatingballsbycoloratatoymanufacturingplant.Assuch,therehasbeenmuchresearchintoidentifyingdierenttrainingproceduresandtheeectsoftraininginimprovingperformance.Asignicantincreaseinrecentresearchinthisareahasbeenadirectresultofaninstanceoftheidentify-friend-or-foetaskwheretheincorrectidenticationofanaircraftresultedinthedirectlossofmorethan200civilianlives{theJuly3,1988tragicshootingofanIranianpassengerplaneoverthePersianGulfbytheU.S.S.Vincennes.Atrainingprocedureisaprocessusedtogiveanagentabasisfromwhichtomakedecisions.Twodierenttrainingprocessesthathavebeenexaminedwithintheorganizationalcontextareexperientialtraining,wheretheagentsaretrainedsuchthattheircurrentdecisionsareafunctionofcertainaspectsoftheirpastthatarelabeledexperience,andoperationaltraining,wheretheagentsuseastandardoperatingprocedure(SOP)toevaluatethesituationandmakeadecision[Car91,LC91].Muchresearchhasbeendoneonorganizationalperformancewhentheagentsintheorganizationhavebeenexperientiallytrainedsuchthattheircurrentdecisionsar