机动化与城市人居环境的协调发展

机动化与城市人居环境的协调发展HarmoniousDevelopmentbetweenMobilizationandUrbanHabitatEnvironment同济大学杨东援TongjiUniversityYangDongyuan2006.6发展与挑战DevelopmentandChallenge城市化所带来的挑战ChallengeFromUrbanization快速的城市化进程将在今后的20年期间，造成3亿左右的人口进入城市，这意味着有相当一批50-80万人口的城市将要快速发展成为百万人口以上规模。Inthenext20years,3billionpeoplewillmoveinthecityduringrapidurbanization.Itwillpushsomecitieswith500,000~800,000populationintolargecitieswithmorethanamillionpopulation.这种变化意味着相当数量城市的交通骨架需要巨大的变化，土地和环境资源的紧缺更加凸现。TransportArterialNetworksinmanycitiesarerequestedtoincreasealotunderthisgreatchange.ShortageofLandandenvironmentalresourcesemerges.大规模的交通基础设施建设会极大地影响城市原有的氛围与环境。Large-scaleTransportationInfrastructureconstructionwillgreatlyinfluencetheoriginalfeelingandenvironmentofthecity.城市的管理者缺乏对于未来挑战的思想准备，却期待城市产业规模、人口规模、用地规模的巨大扩展。UrbanMangersarelackofpreparationforfuturechallenge,butexpectthehugeexpansionofindustry,populationandLand.惠州市惠城区高峰小时交通流量分布情况PeakHourTrafficflowdistributionofHuizhouCityLEGEND原有城市格局局限了主城区干线道路的扩展能力。OriginalUrbanformlimitstheexpansionabilityofArterialRoadsinthecitycenter.依托高速公路发展起来的城区需要彻底调整原有布局UrbanareaswhichdevelopedbyFreewaysneedstoadjusttheconfigurationtotally.PlannedcityentranceintheeastPlannedcityentranceinthewestCurrententranceToShenzhenToShenzhenToShenzhenToChenjiangToHuichengToShanweiToShanwei原有小规模城市在扩展过程中所遇到的路网结构调整问题RoadNetworkneedstobeadjustedintheexpansionprocessofsmall-sizedcity.RevisionofUrbanMasterPlanofHuai’anCity第二产业发展与城市环境的冲突对于道路功能的影响——港口造成的冲突ConflictsbetweenSecondIndustryDevelopmentandCityEnvironmentinfluenceroadnetworkfunctions——CausedbyPorts有待开发的水上交通资源UndevelopedWaterTransportResourcesBusRoutesalongtheHuangpuRiver战略与实施Strategiesandimplementation城市交通战略规划的结构模型StructureModelofUrbanTransportationStrategicPlanning行动层重大政策层综合任务层战略层主要内容总体战略、远景、主要任务等基本战略、重大政策等基本战略分解、政策分解、行动组合等支持具体目标的措施，可落实的软硬对策等ActionsKeypoliciesTaskpackagesStategiesContentsOverallStategies,visions,maintasksetc.ElementaryStategies,keypoliciesElementaryStategiesdecomposion,policiesdecomposion,ActionscombinationMeasuressupportingobjectives,ImlementableManagementandconstructioncountermeasures明确战略要点的方法与途径FourApproachestoStrategicIssueIdentification途径Approaches途径描述Descriptions适用条件AdaptiveConditions适用范围AdaptiveAreas直接法规划者直接通过使命、责任和SWOT分析等阐释战略要点。对于目标未形成共识或目标过于复杂；不存在已有的愿景或愿景无法描述；不存在具有强制各方接受统一目标的机构或个人；环境过于多变难以形成统一的目标和愿景，局部的、应急的行动更为有效。适用于大部分公共部门。一般情况下，需要有一个组织（往往具有联合性）承担战略要点的明确与相关问题的解决（至少是部分承担）。ThedirectapproachPlannersgostraightfromareviewofmandates,mission,andSWOTanalysestotheidentificationofstrategicissues.(1)Thereisnoagreementongoals,orthegoalsonwhichthereisagreementaretooabstracttobeuseful.(2)Thereisnopreexistingvisionofsuccess,anddevelopingaconsensuallybasedvisionwillbedifficult.(3)Thereisnohierarchicalauthoritythatcanimposegoalsontheotherstakeholders;(4)theenvironmentissoturbulentthatdevelopmentofgoalsorvisionsseemsunwise,andpartialactioninresponsetoimmediate,importantissuesseemsmostappropriate.Adaptableformostpublicorganizations.Generally,theremustbeacoalitionthatisfullycommittedtoidentifyingandresolvingatleastsomeofthekeystrategicissuestheorganizationfaces.途径Approaches途径描述Descriptions适用条件AdaptiveConditions适用范围AdaptiveAreas间接法通过组织内部共同参与的形式明确战略要点。当规划者与组织内的部分主导性成员意识到部分战略需要重大转变，甚至往往是反向性转变的同时，尚未完全把握现存战略的问题以及重大转变的必要性。与直接法相同。TheindirectapproachTheplannerteamworktogethertoidentifystrategicissues.Whenmayorstrategicredirectionisnecessarybutmembersoftheplanningteamandtheorganizationredirectionhasnotyetgraspedtheneedforitorcannotsensewheresuchchangesmightlead.Sameasthedirectapproach.途径Approaches途径描述Descriptions适用条件AdaptiveConditions适用范围AdaptiveAreas目标法为组织确立目标，并为实现该目标而明确战略要点。有可能为组织设立统一的目标，并且目标的明确性与具体性可以指引相关的战略要点的明确与战略的讨论。较为适用于等级制度较强的组织，且不存在对组织具有强大影响力的外部力量。TheGoalsapproachAnorganizationfirstestablishesgoalsandobjectivesforitselfandthengoesontoidentifyissuesthatneedtobeaddressedinordertoachievethosegoalsandobjectives.Afairlybroadanddeepagreementontheorganization’sgoalsandobjectivesmustbepossible,andthegoalsandobjectivesthemselvesmustbespecificanddetailedenoughtoprovideusefulguidancefordevelopingissuesandstrategies.Thisapproachisalsomorelikelytoworkinorganizationwithhierarchicalauthority.途径Approaches途径描述Descriptions适用条件AdaptiveConditions适用范围AdaptiveAreas愿景法为组织描绘完美的愿景，并为实现该愿景明确其战略要点。组织有较高的战略整合的要求，即各方意识到直接法、间接法、目标法无法整合各方的战略意向的情况下。更适合于非盈利组织。公共部门往往在领导换届等情况下较为适用。ThevisionofsuccessofapproachTheorganizationisaskedtodevelopa“best”pictureofitselfinthefutureasitfulfillsitsmissionandachievessuccess.Integrationacrossavarietyofstrategiesisnecessary.Inotherwords,theapproachcanbeusedwhensponsors,champions,andplanningteammembersbelievethatsimplyidentifyingissuesdirectlyorindirectlyorarticulatinggoalsisunlikelytopromotethelevelofstrategyintegrationthatisperceivedasnecessary.Moredependablefornonprofitorganizations.Italsoislikelytobeapreferredapproachwhenanewpolicyboardorchiefexecutivetakesofficebasedonavisionespousedpriortoelectionorappointment.战略规划者基于规范流程的战略性分析非基于规范流程的战略性分析战略决策者引导战略要点战略目标战略愿景直接法目标法间接法StrategicPlannerStrategicAnalysiswithStandardprocessStrategicAnalysiswithunstandardprocessStrateg