美国国会 中国经济状况调查 英文版

CRSReportforCongressPreparedforMembersandCommitteesofCongressChina’sEconomicConditionsWayneM.MorrisonSpecialistinAsianTradeandFinanceDecember11,2009CongressionalResearchService7-5700’sEconomicConditionsCongressionalResearchServiceSummarySincetheinitiationofeconomicreformsandtradeliberalization30yearsago,Chinahasbeenoneoftheworld’sfastest-growingeconomiesandhasemergedasamajoreconomicandtradepower.China’srapideconomicgrowthhassharplyimprovedChineselivingstandardsandhelpedraisehundredsofmillionsofpeopleoutofextremepoverty.TradeandforeigninvestmentflowshavebeenmajorfactorsinChina’sboomingeconomy.In2008China,wastheworld’ssecondlargestmerchandiseexporterandthirdlargestimporter.OverhalfofChina’stradeisconductedbyforeign-investedfirmsinChina.In2008,foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)inChinatotaled$92billion,makingitthedestinationforFDIamongdevelopingeconomies.Thecombinationoflargetradesurpluses,FDIflows,andlarge-scalepurchasesofforeigncurrency(especiallydollars)hashelpedmakeChinatheworld’slargestholderofforeignexchangereservesat$2.3trillion.TheglobaleconomiccrisisbegantoimpactChina’seconomyinlate2008.Aftergrowingby13%in2007,China’srealGDPslowedto9.0%in2008andto7.1%inthefirsthalfof2009(year-on-yearbasis).China’stradeandinflowsofFDIdiminishedsharply,andmillionsofworkersreportedlylosttheirjobs.TheChinesegovernmenthassoughttoboosttheeconomybyimplementinga$586billioneconomicstimuluspackage(largelyaimedatinfrastructureprojects),establishingeasymoneypoliciestoboostbankinglending,andprovidingassistancetovariousindustries.SuchpolicieshavehelpedstabilizeChina’seconomy;realGDPisexpectedtogrowbyover8%in2009—farhigherthantheexpectedgrowthofanyothermajoreconomy.Despitetherelativelypositiveoutlookforitseconomy,Chinafacesanumberofdifficultchallengesthat,ifnotaddressed,couldundermineitsfutureeconomicgrowthandstability.Theseincludepervasivegovernmentcorruption,aninefficientbankingsystem,over-dependenceonexportsandfixedinvestmentforgrowth,thelackofruleoflaw,severepollution,andwideningincomedisparities.TheChinesegovernmenthasindicatedthatitintendstocreatea“harmonioussociety”overthecomingyearsthatwouldpromotemorebalancedeconomicgrowthandaddressanumberofeconomicandsocialills.China’seconomyandeconomicpoliciesareofmajorconcerntomanyU.S.policymakers.Ontheonehand,U.S.consumers,exporters,andinvestorshavegenerallybenefittedfromChina’srapideconomicandtradegrowth.China’slargeholdingsofU.S.securitieshavehelpedkeepU.S.interestratesrelativelylow.SomecontendthatChinahasalargestakeinensuringthecontinuanceofaliberalizedglobaltradingsystem.Ontheotherhand,thesurgeinU.S.importsofChineseproductshasputcompetitivepressuresonvariousU.S.industries.ManyU.S.policymakershavearguedthatChinamaintainsanumberofeconomicpoliciesthatviolateitscommitmentsintheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)and/orareharmfultoU.S.economicinterests,suchasitscurrencypolicy.ConcernshavealsobeenraisedoverChina’srisingdemandforenergyandrawmaterialsintermsoftheimpactthatdemandmayhaveonworldprices,Chineseeffortstopurchaseenergyandrawmaterialsassetsaroundtheworld,andthegrowinglevelofpollutionandgreenhousegasesthathasresultedfromChina’sgrowingenergyneeds.Chinahasbeenpursuingfreetradeagreementsaroundtheworld,especiallyinAsia.ThishasraisedconcernsthatChinamighttrytopromoteagreaterAsiantradingareathatwouldexcludetheUnitedStates,andthuspossiblydiminishU.S.economicpowerandinfluenceintheregion.China’sEconomicConditionsCongressionalResearchServiceContentsMostRecentDevelopments.........................................................................................................2AnOverviewofChina’sEconomicDevelopment........................................................................3China’sEconomyPriortoReforms.......................................................................................3TheIntroductionofEconomicReforms.................................................................................4China’sEconomicGrowthSinceReforms:1979-2008..........................................................4CausesofChina’sEconomicGrowth....................................................................................5MeasuringtheSizeofChina’sEconomy.....................................................................................6ForeignDirectInvestmentinChina.............................................................................................9China’sTradePatterns...............................................................................................................10China’sMajorTradingPartners...........................................................................................13MajorChineseTradeCommodities.....................................................................................14China’sGrowingAppetiteforImportedOil.........................................................................16China’sRegionalandBilateralFreeTradeAgreements........................................................16China’sGrowingOverseasDirectInvestment...................