IPCC政府间气候变化委员会第2次评估报告

UNEPPNUEWMOOMMINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGEIPCCSecondAssessmentClimateChange1995AREPORTOFTHEINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGEUNEPPNUEWMOOMMINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGEIPCCSecondAssessmentClimateChange1995AREPORTOFTHEINTERGOVERNMENTALPANELONCLIMATECHANGECONTENTSPagePREFACE...............................................................................................vFOREWORD............................................................................................viiIPCCSECONDASSESSMENTSYNTHESISOFSCIENTIFIC-TECHNICALINFORMATIONRELEVANTTOINTERPRETINGARTICLE2OFTHEUNFRAMEWORKCONVENTIONONCLIMATECHANGE............................11.AddressingtheUNFCCCArticle2.......................................................................32.Anthropogenicinterferencewiththeclimatesystem........................................................43.Sensitivityandadaptationofsystemstoclimatechange......................................................64.Analyticalapproachtostabilizationofatmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousegases............................85.Technologyandpolicyoptionsformitigation..............................................................126.Equityandsocialconsiderations........................................................................147.Economicdevelopmenttoproceedinasustainablemanner...................................................158.Theroadforward....................................................................................17SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERS:THESCIENCEOFCLIMATECHANGE—IPCCWORKINGGROUPI....................191.Greenhousegasconcentrationshavecontinuedtoincrease...................................................212.Anthropogenicaerosolstendtoproducenegativeradiativeforcings............................................213.Climatehaschangedoverthepastcentury................................................................224.Thebalanceofevidencesuggestsadiscerniblehumaninfluenceonglobalclimate................................225.Climateisexpectedtocontinuetochangeinthefuture......................................................226.Therearestillmanyuncertainties.......................................................................24SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERS:SCIENTIFIC-TECHNICALANALYSESOFIMPACTS,ADAPTATIONSANDMITIGATIONOFCLIMATECHANGE—IPCCWORKINGGROUPII...........................................251.Scopeoftheassessment...............................................................................272.Natureoftheissue...................................................................................273.Vulnerabilitytoclimatechange.........................................................................283.1Terrestrialandaquaticecosystems..................................................................293.2Hydrologyandwaterresourcesmanagement..........................................................323.3Foodandfibre..................................................................................323.4Humaninfrastructure............................................................................343.5Humanhealth..................................................................................354.Optionstoreduceemissionsandenhancesinksofgreenhousegases............................................364.1Energy,industrialprocessandhumansettlementemissions..............................................364.1.1Energydemand...........................................................................364.1.2Mitigatingindustrialprocessandhumansettlementemissions.....................................384.1.3Energysupply............................................................................384.1.4Integrationofenergysystemmitigationoptions.................................................394.2Agriculture,rangelandsandforestry.................................................................394.3Cross-sectoralissues..............................................................................414.4Policyinstruments...............................................................................41SUMMARYFORPOLICYMAKERS:THEECONOMICANDSOCIALDIMENSIONSOFCLIMATECHANGE—IPCCWORKINGGROUPIII.............................................................................431.Introduction........................................................................................452.Scopeoftheassessment...............................................................................453.Decision-makingframeworksforaddressingclimatechange..................................................464.Equityandsocialconsiderations........................................................................475.Intertemporalequityanddiscounting....................................................................486.Applicabilityofcostandbenefitassessments...............................................................497.Thesocialcostsofanthropogenicclimatechange:Damagesofincreasedgreenhousegasemissions....................50iiiPage8.Genericassess