飞行事故概率模型与风险评估方法

18220082ChinaSafetyScienceJournalVol.18No.2Feb.20083(,710038):620.5020:X949;V328.5:A:(60572172);(BC06002),,,,Poisson,,,;;;Poisson;ProbabilityModelforFlightAccidentsandRiskAssessmentMethodGEZhi2haoXUHao2junLIULinMENGJie(Department1,SchoolofEngineering,AirForceEngineeringUniversity,Xi’an710038,China)Abstract:Inordertoassessflightsafetyonthesystem,theflightaccidentprobabilitymodelandrandomprocessmodelaresetupbasedonaccidentstatistics,andquantitativeassessmentisrealizedbytheindexofsafetyreliability.Basedontheassumptionofindependence,thedistributionlawsforflightriskarede2veloped,andtherelationshipsbetweenthemainindexesoftheflightsafetyareascertained.Theairacci2dentsarestatisticallymodeledbyassumingtheaccidenteventsfollowingPoissonprocess,andtheindexofsafetyreliabilityisestimatedbyinterval.Theexampleshowsthattheflightsafetycanassesstherisk,andtherankcanbegottenaccordingtothegradedemandfortheaccidents’riskprobability.Keywords:flightsafety;safetyreliability;probabilityassessment;Poissonprocess;risk0,,,,[1],[2][3],,,,,,,[4-5],,3:1003-3033(2008)02-0162-04;:2007-09-10;:2007-12-30,,,,1,()[6],,,,,R={(Si,Pi,Ci)|i=1,2,,n}(1),Sii;Pi=Pi(Si)i();Ci=Ci(Si),,R=f(P,C)(2),,,PiIndex=Index[Pi(Si)](3),Si,:,,:,[7]IVV,1):Na:F-15,F-16200000,10000082):,Qs:,,10-7/2,,A,P,Q,Q,P+Q=1(4)N,,NX:XB(N,Q),N,Q,XPoisson:XP(),F(X=k)=kk!e-,=NQ(5)k=0,PN=e-NQ=e-N(1-P)(6)NXEX==NQ,Q1,105Na=Q1105ti,NT=Ni=1tiQst,NQ=TQstF(X=k)=(TQst)kk!e-TQst(7)XEX==TQst,1Qst1,105Na=Qst1105t:Pt=e-tQstT1=m(t)=Qst0te-Qstdt=1Qst(8)(7),F(X=k)=(T/T1)kk!e-T/T1(9)3Poisson[8]:,,tt,3612:t{N(t),tE0}Poisson,{N(t)}[0,t]Snn,Xn=Sn-Sn-1(n1),S0=0,Sn=ni=1Xifn(t)=0(0t)n-1(n-1)!e-0t=n0(n)tn-1e-0t(10),()=0x-1e-xdx,2Sn[9]gn(t)=122n22n2t2n2-1e-t2(t0)(11)2(2n),2Sn=2(2n)1-,P22(2n)2Sn21-2(2n)=1-1-[2/2(2n)/2Sn,21-/2(2n)/2Sn](12)Tn,QstTn,(n+1),[2/2(2n)/2T,21-/2(2n+2)/2T](13)n30,2,()2(m)m+2m(14)=0.95,20.975(m)=m+1.962m20.025(m)=m-1.962m(15)4[10]3,:10-9;10-910-6;10-6Pi11T=1.8105,15,720=0.95Qst1Qst2(13)(15):4.1710-5Qst11.2510-43.7110-3Qst24.2910-3,,,,(8)[8.00103,2.40104]t22461ChinaSafetyScienceJournal1820085,:1),,,2),3),,--[1]WongDKY,PitfieldDE,CavesRE,etal.Quantifyingandcharacterizingaviationaccidentriskfactors[J].JournalofAirTransportManagement,2006,12:352-357[2]P.B..[Z].:,1998[3],.[J].,1999,9(3):6973[4]ElizabethSaersBign.Riskanalysisofcatastrophesusingexperts’judgments:AnempiricalstudyonriskanalysisofmajorcivilaircraftaccidentsinEurope[J].EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,1995,87:599-612[5],,.SCGM(1,1)C[J].,2006,26(5):135139[6],,.[J].,2005,27(1):98101[7],,.[M].:,2003.1[8]JanicM.Anassessmentofriskandsafetyincivilaviation[J].JournalofAirTransportManagement,2000(6):43-50[9].[M].:,2004[10].[D].:,20015612:,,19661990619908199912,,20001,10020,,19682003,,,,,,,198092002,,2005,,;22,,19683-11863;1,2,15,,1977,,86310,,198242005(),9,,,,,