亚洲城市空气质量与机动车排放控制

StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia亚洲城市空气质量与机动车排放控制SustainableUrbanMobilityinAsiaACAI-AsiaProgramForumofEnvironmentalFriendlyActionbyCitiesinWesternChina13-14July2006Urumuqi,XinJiangAutonomousRegion,China,P.R.BertFabianandCornieHuizengaSecretariatCleanAirInitiativeforAsianCitiesStrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia•亚洲城市空气质量•降低机动车排放的框架•排放标准与机动车技术•清洁燃料•检测与维护•交通规划与需求管理纲要StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia•好消息:在亚洲的空气质量管理效率不断提高的情况下，空气质量已经稳定下来•坏消息:空气质量水平（特别是颗粒物）仍然大幅度超过世界卫生组织(WHO)的推荐值，甚至也超过国家标准。Figure1.TrendsofMajorCriteriaAirPollutants(1993-2004)050100150200250300199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004concentrationsing/m3TSPPM10SO2NO2TSPlimit:WHO(1979):60-90g/m3PM10limit:WHO(2005):20g/m3USEPA(1997):50g/m3EU:40g/m3SO2limit:WHO(2000):50g/m3USEPA(1997):80g/m3EU:20g/m3NO2limit:WHO(2000):40g/m3USEPA(1997):100g/m3EU:40g/m3TSPPM10NO2SO2亚洲空气质量状况StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia注：Note:SPM年标准=100µg/m3PM10年标准=50µg/m30100200300400500600700199319951997199920012003concentrationsinµg/m3RoadsideSPMAmbientSPMRoadsidePM10AmbientPM1020304050607080901001990199219941996199820002002concentrationsinµg/m3AmbientPM10RoadsidePM100204060801001201402000200120022003concentrationsinµg/m3RoadsidePM10AmbientPM10HongKongBangkokHoChiMinh•路旁颗粒物浓度总是超过环境中浓度，说明机动车是主要的颗粒物来源之一•越来越多的控制移动源的措施（提高油品质量、加严排放标准）已经缩小了这种差距。颗粒物－路旁与环境浓度对比StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia亚洲的城市化趋势Source:BBCusingGall-PetersMapprojection(2006)andUNDESApopulationdata(2005)1985199520052015•在上世纪60年代，五分之一的人住在城市•在上世纪90年代，三分之一的人住在城市•预计到2020年，有一半的人住在城市2000到2025年，亚洲城市人口迅速增加－中国增长81%，印度增长87%StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia亚洲的机动车化趋势Registered2-3wheelersinAsia'000(1990to2003)-10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0001990199219941996199820002002China,PRIndiaIndonesiaTaipei,ChinaVietNamStrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia:VehiclePopulationProjectionfromSegmentYLtdChina,P.R.010020030040050020052008201520252035India02040608010020052008201520252035Thailand02040608010020052008201520252035Indonesia中国、印度、泰国和印尼的机动车增长StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia颗粒物千吨MillionTonsofCO2二氧化碳百万吨China,P.R.中国India印度交通行业未来的尾气排放StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia道路交通的氮氧化物NOx排放20052008201520252035China8.510.313.19.72.8India2.22.63.53.61.6Economy01231051015MillionTonsofNOxNote:SegmentYVehiclePopulationProjectionusingIEASMPmodelStrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia:TheforecastsusedinFigures2and3weredevelopedbySegmentYplc()basedontheGoldmanSachseconomicforecastintheir“DreamingwithBRICs”report•摩托车的使用增加–India,China,P.R.,IndonesiaandThailand:–2005:125million–2008:170million–2015:300million•达到最高峰而转向使用汽车的点什么时候到来？中国是2025年么?•摩托车正进入新的市场，如菲律宾•2-3轮机动车在亚洲的交通中发挥重要作用，如：–菲律宾的三轮机动车–南亚的人力车–泰国的Tuk-tuk05010015020025030020052008201520252035Millionof2-and3-wheelersChinaIndiaThailandIndonesia亚洲的两轮和三轮机动车StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia中国的电动自行车•尽管在一些主要城市禁行，中国的电动自行车销售量已经从2004年的750万辆增加到2005年的950万辆•这样的迅速增长很大程度上是由于一些主要的中国城市从1996年开始强制禁行带有汽油发动机的小型摩托车和自行车•中国已经有大约260家公司在生产电动自行车及其零部件注:信息由JohnRogers编辑(2006)StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia亚洲的城市公共交通•公共交通大多蔬于规范•大多数的公交车既老旧又维护不善•是城市地区颗粒物的主要来源•产生内部储蓄的资本化能力不足，中小规模，非正规的管理•没有与交通系统很好地结合，而且结合起来很困难StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia降低机动车排放的综合方法空气污染机动车排放标准油品质量检测与维护交通规划与管理StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia(underdiscussion)HongKong,ChinaEuro1Euro2Euro3Euro4IndiaaEuro1Euro2E3IndiabE1Euro2Euro3IndonesiaEuro2MalaysiaEuro1Euro2E4NepalEuro1PhilippinesEuro1PRCaEuro1Euro2Euro3PRCcEuro1Euro2Euro3SingaporeeEuro1Euro2SingaporegEuro1Euro2Euro4SriLankaEuro1Taipei,ChinaUSTier1USTier2fordieseldThailandEuro1Euro2Euro3Euro4VietNameEuro1Euro2E3VietNamfEuro1Euro2E3机动车排放标准的制度化(轻型新车)Source:CAI-Asia,2006排气管:排放标准StrengtheningtheairqualitymanagementcommunityinAsia亚洲、欧盟和美国的柴油中硫含量1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011Bangladesh5000Cambodia2000HongKong,China5005010-underconsiderationIndia(nationwide)50002500500350India(metros)5000250050035050Indonesia5000Japana5005010Malaysia50003000500-marketed50050Pakistan100005000Philippines50002000500PRC(nationwide)50002000500-widelyusedPRC-Beijing50002000500350RepublicofKorea5004303010Singapore300050050SriLanka1000050003000/500500Taipei,China300050035050Thailand250050035050VietNam100002500500EuropeanU