泛读教程 第三册 Unit 15

Unit15TransportationInferenceLOGOYourcompanysloganUnit15TransportationInferenceLOGOYourcompanysloganInferenceisamentalprocessbywhichwereachaconclusionbasedonspecificevidence.Inferencesarethestockandtradeofdetectivesexaminingclues,ofdoctorsdiagnosingdiseases,andofcarmechanicsrepairingengineproblems.Weinfermotives,purpose,andintentions.Inferenceisessentialto,andpartof,beinghuman.Weengageininferenceeveryday.Weinterpretactionstobeexamplesofbehaviorcharacteristics,intents,orexpressionsofparticularfeelings.Weinferitisrainingwhenweseesomeonewithanopenumbrella.Weinferpeoplearethirstyiftheyaskforaglassofwater.Weinferthatevidenceinatextisauthoritativewhenitisattributedtoascholarinthefield.YourcompanysloganWewanttofindsignificance.Welistentoremarks,andwanttomakesenseofthem.Whatmightthespeakermean?Whyisheorshesayingthat?Wegobeyondspecificremarkstounderlyingsignificanceorbroadermeaning.Whenwereadthatsomeonecheatedonhisorherincometaxes,wemighttakethatasanexampleoffinancialingenuity,daring,orstupidity.Weseekpurposesandreasons.Inferencesarenotrandom.Whiletheymaycomeaboutmysteriouslywithasuddenjumpofrecognition,asenseofAhha!,inferencesareveryorderly.Inferencesmaybeguesses,buttheyareeducatedguessesbasedonsupportingevidence.Theevidenceseemstorequirethatwereachaspecificconclusion.YourcompanysloganEvidenceissaidtoimply;readersinfer.Whilethisimagesuggestsanintentorpoweronthepartofevidencethatdoesnotexist—how,afterall,canafactcompelacertainconclusion?—theimageandresultingterminologyareusefulnonetheless.Thesenseofinevitabilitytotheconclusionsuggeststhatwedidnotjumptothatconclusionormakeituponourown,butfounditbyreasoningfromtheevidence.Theaboveimageimpliesthateveryonewillreachthesameconclusion.Thatobviouslyisnotthecase—astheexamplesabovesuggest.Theumbrellamightbeprotectionfromthesun,therequestforwatermightindicateaneedtotakeapill,andafootnotemayciteonlyonesideofacontroversy.Hereagain,thelinebetweeninferenceandjumpingtoaconclusioncanbeawfullythin.YourcompanysloganInferencesarenotachievedwithmathematicalrigor.Inferencesdonothavethecertaintyobtainedwithdeductivereasoning.Inferencestendtoreflectpriorknowledgeandexperienceaswellaspersonalbeliefsandassumptions.Inferencesthustendtoreflectone'sstakeinasituationorone'sinterestsintheoutcome.Peoplemayreasondifferentlyorbringdifferentassumptionsorpremisestobear.GivenevidencethatPCB'scausecancerinpeople,andthatPCB'sareinaparticularwatersystem,allreasonablepeoplewouldreachtheconclusionthatthatwatersystemisdangeroustopeople.Butgivenevidencethatthereisanincreaseinskincanceramongpeoplewhosunbathe,notallpeoplewouldconcludethatsunbathingcausesskincancer.Sunbathing,theymightargue,maybecoincidentalwithexposuretoothercancercausingfactors.YourcompanysloganMoreoftenthannot,disagreementsarebasednotondifferencesinreasoning,butinthevalues,assumptions,orinformationbroughttobear.Ifwebelievethatallpoliticiansarecrooks,wewillinferthataspecificpolitician'sactionsarescurrilous.Ifwebelievethatpoliticiansactforthegoodofall,wewilllookforsomebenefitintheiractions.Eitherway,wewilltrytousereasontoexplaintheactions.Wewilllookforsomecoherentexplanationasawayofmakingsenseofthings.Aswesawearlier,ifwecanunderstandwhysomeonewoulddosomething,whysomeonemightsaysomething,whysomeonemightactinacertainway,wefeelwehavemadesenseoftheactorstatement.It'slikeamurdertrial:ifwecanputtogetheropportunity,motive,andmeans,wecanmakeacase.Themoreevidencewehavebeforeus,andthemorecarefullywereason,themorevalidourinferences.Thisprincipleplaysanimportantrolewithreading:themoreevidencewithinatextweincorporateintoourinterpretation,themorelikelywehavenotgoneastrayfromanyintendedmeaning.YourcompanysloganInferencesarebasedonevidence.Toinfer,wemustcollectevidence.Andevidenceiscollectedbytheprocessofanalysis.Analysisisaparticularformofinvestigation.Ingeneralusage,analysisreferstoanyclose,careful,orsystematicexamination.Inthediscussionhere,theterm“analysis“isusedinitsmoretechnicalmeaning.Analysisisaprocessofinvestigatingsomethingbybreakingitintopartsforcloserexamination.Complextopicsarebrokendownintosimplerones.Intricatepatternsarebrokendownintolesscomplicatedelements.Aproblemissimplifiedbylimitingtheamountthatmustbeexaminedatanyonetime.YourcompanysloganThegoalofanalysisisnotsimplytodiscoverpartswithinthewhole,buttounderstandthewhole.Oncethepartsareidentified,analysisthenseekstodeterminehowthosepartsarerelated.Fromarecognitionofthenatureoftheparts,andtherelationshipsbetweenthepartsweinferadditionalmeaning.Intheanalyticmodel,thewholeisseenasgreaterthanthesumofitsparts.YourcompanysloganLevelsofAnalysisAnalysiscanbecarriedoutonvariouslevels.Anypartcanbeanalyzedintosmallerparts.Atableofcontents,forinstance,indicatesthecontentsofabookatvariouslevelsofanalysis:parts,chapters,sections,etc.BasesofAnalysisFinally,notethatasingletopiccanoftenbebrokenupforanalysisinanumberofways.Ananthropologistmightviewsocietyintermsofculturalvaluesandinstitutions;thesociologistmightlookatissuesofgroupidentityandsocialinteraction.Theanthropologistmightlookathowjusticeisadministered,