94高鸿业的宏观经济学学习讲义

12♠♠♠♠♠GDPGDP♠()312——3P4134GDP——12GDP3GDP4GDP55GDP6GDP7GDPGDPGDPGDPGDP“”“”61234701.00.81.01.22.11.21.50.51.51.841.81.901.90—1GDP2GDP3GDP4GDP81GDPGDP=1.9+4+0.5+2.1+0.8=9.32GDPGDP=–=1.9–1.8+4+1.8–1.5+0.5+1.5–1.2+2.1+1.2–1+1+0.8–0=9.33GDPGDP=C+I+G+NXG=NX=0=++0I==4+0.5+2.1+0.8=7.4GDP=C+I=1.9+7.4=9.34GDPGDP=+++GDP=+=1.9–1.8+1.8–1.5+1.5–1.2+1.2–1+1–0+4+0.5+2.1+0.8=9.39GDPGDP10GDPGDP=++++++++++GDPNDPNIPIDPI111NDP234530960300030080048001NDP=GDP-2GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)3BS=T-GT=BS+G4yd=NDP-T5S=yd-C12GDP——GDP=C+I——GDP=+++=+=C+SI=S1-2-13GDP=C+I+GGDP=+++=++=C+S+TC+I+G=C+S+TI+G=S+TI=S+T–GI=Sp+SgSpSg14GDP=C+I+G+X–MGDP=+++=+++=C+S+T+KrC+I+G+X–M=C+S+T+KrI+G+X–M=S+T+KrI=S+T–G+Kr+M–XI=Sp+Sg+SrSpSgSr1P43011152P430101NDP234530960300030080048001NDP=GDP-=GDP-(-)=4800-500=43002GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)NX=403BS=T-GT=BS+G=9904yd=NDP-T=4300-990=33105S=yd-C=3310-3000=3105I=Sp+Sg+Sr⇒I=Sp+(T-G)-NX⇒800=Sp+30-40⇒Sp=81016GDPGDPGDPGDPP42517P42991991.9374.5105.164.4402.1253.966.4120.8164.834.1266.3264.91866.6356.4-()---181NDP1000T100G90C810S90I100210001400……10001000140040020006002800800380010005000120031000100300GDP4S20050105GDP100025050010040?196GDP500C35020I150120??719721186019863661020819861639038GDP8C100+0.8YI50800100?201NDP1000T100G90C810S90I100210001400……10001000140040020006002800800380010005000120031000100300GDP4S20050105GDP100025050010040?1T-G=0⇒G=T∴y=GDP=yd+T=C+S+T=1000+100+300=14002I=Sp+Sg=100+0=100∴y=GDP=C+I+G=1400GDP=C+I+G+NXI=150I=Sp+Sg+Sr⇒Sp=290yd=C+Sp=790216GDP500C35020I150120??719721186019863661020819861639038GDP8C100+0.8YI50800100?BS=T-G=-120⇒G=120+T=120-20=100GDP=C+I+G+NX⇒NX=-100GDPyd1986/198636610/16390223Y=C+I⇒Y=750I=S=50800-750=50Y=C+I⇒Y=100022♠♠*♠♠*♠♠♠♠♠23E-yE=c+iE=y24AD=AS141EOyE=yE=c+ic+i=yi=y-c=si=s251c=c(y)2•1?c?cdcMPC=ß=MPC=?y?ydy••142c=+y≤126s=-+(1-)ysssMPS=MPS=APS=yyyddΔΔ27114-6c,sOyc=+yy0S=-+(1-)y-23APCAPS1MPCMPS1125002000500235004000028——}1EciyiiyiyyEyabaabb=+=+++⇒++⇒=-(2)148148EOyE=yE=c+i=+i+y*1iyab+=-}(1)(1)1syiyiyEiabaabb=-+-+⇒-+-=⇒=-214914-9c,sOys=-+(1-)y-E=iE=+y+i*1iyab+=-291t01ttE=E=ytttcyiyabab--=+++14-5EOyEt=+i0+yt-1Et=yty0E1y2y1E2E3y000100()11ttttiiyyiyyaababbb-++=++⇒=-+--301000.8808064……1000.81000.641000.512100…0.8n-1100+…50014.60.80.640.512…1001410EOyiyy′yc+i′Ec+i451212121(1)1(1)111(2)111nnnyiccciiiiiiiyyyiiMPCbbbbbbbabb---Δ=Δ+Δ+Δ++Δ+=Δ+Δ+Δ++Δ+=Δ+++++=⋅Δ-+ΔΔ=⇒==-Δ-Δ-LLLLLLiyS=-+(1-)y31123321c=+ydydTig14.7.111—yd=y–Ty=c+i+g=+yd+i+g=+(y–T)+i+gy=(+i+g–T)/(1–)C=+yEoyE=yE=+i+g–T+yy*E=(+i+g–T)+yE=(+i+g)+yE=y3314.7.12—––––––––––––––E=yE=+i+g–T+yc=+yoyES=––g+T+(1–)yE=iS=––g+T+(1–)yS=––g+(1–)y3414.7.212C=+ydydtT=tyig1-yd=y–T=(1–t)yy=c+i+g=+yd+i+g=+i+g+(1–t)yy=(+i+g)/(1–(1–t))oyEc=+yE=yE=(+i+g)+yy*E=(+i+g)+(1–t)yE=(+i+g)+(1–t)yE=(+i+g)+yt3514.7.222—s=yd–c=–+(1–)yd=–+(1–)(1–t)yS=sp+sg=–+(1–)yd+(T–g)=–+(1–)(1–t)y+(ty–g)=––g+[1–(1–t)]yi=S=––g+[1–(1–t)]yy=(+i+g)/(1–(1–t))oyES=––g+[1–(1–t)]yc=+yE=yy*E=(+i+g)+(1–t)yE=iS=––g+(1–)yS=––g+[1–(1–t)]yS=––g+(1–)y363C=+ydydtdT=d+tyig—yd=y–T=–d+(1–t)yy=c+i+g=+yd+i+g=+i+g–d+(1–t)yy=(+i+g–d)/(1–(1–t))E=(+i+g–d)+(1–t)yE=(+i+g)+yE=ydt371igTyabb++-=-111ggykkgbbΔ==Δ-1TTykkTbbΔ-==Δ-()11ddtrtryyTtrycigyigyTtrigigtrTyykktrabababbbbb=-+=++=+++=+-++++++-Δ⇒=⇒==-Δ-381gt1y=kg+kg+y1y=g+11111ggTTggTbbbbbb-⎫⎪ΔΔΔ=ΔΔΔ-⇒ΔΔΔ=Δ⇒=--⎬--ΔΔ=Δ⎪⎭QQ}00001(1)1(1)ddigTtrytTTtyigTtryyTtryTtytryycigyigtabbbabbabb++-+=--=+++-+∴=-+=--+⇒==++=+++--Qtr1;k.1(1)1(1)ttbbb==----39•y=c+i+gig0y=c∑cntT⇒T⇒(1-t)T⇒c1(1-t)T⇒c1(1-t)T⇒(1-t)2T⇒c2(1-t)22T⇒…⇒ncn(1-t)nnT22(1)(1)(1)(1)1(1)nnnycctTtTtTtTtbbbbb∴Δ=Δ=Δ=-Δ+-Δ++-Δ+∑-=Δ--LL(1)1(1)tTtbb-=-Δ--40•1(1)11(1)1(1)tttbbb------Q41100mmmygg=+2001()1(1)yigTtrxmxtabbbg=++-++---+42111(1)xykxxtbgΔ==Δ--+4315004002001000.920.9750?3NX=20–0.1YC=20+0.75(1–t)YI=25G=15NX=0?4Y=AK0.25L0.75KLy3200K6400L0.10(1)A(2)15A1.3L0.12K4451/280001?6500.7547001250?70.7530?8C=180+0.8(Y–T)I=190G=250T=150CIGTY1234Y=3000459C20+0.75(Y–T)I=380G=400T=0.20yy=C+I+G12100208060(=0.75×80)Y34?5G4004101/(1–MPC)(MPC)1010000.8115000.2512102560025270010600?4615004002001000.920.9750?3NX=20–0.1YC=20+0.75(1–t)YI=25G=15NX=0?4Y=AK0.25L0.75KLy3200K6400L0.10(1)A(2)15A1.3L0.12K44001igTyyabb++-==-1750/2.5$3001(1)yggtbΔ=⇒Δ==Δ--2001501(igyab++=⋅--432002011.9(2)[]20748K====4751/280001?6500.754700(1)(2)50?70.7530?8C=180+0.8(Y–T)I=190G=250T=150CIGTY1234Y=30004000;40000.5100009000;1000.cycyycsycaba=⇒=+=⇒=∴=+⋅==-=4200(1)4900;(2)4500.yygΔ==⇒Δ=Δ47.5yiibΔ==⇒Δ=Δ(1)0.8;(2)0.8b=489C20+0.75(Y–T)I=380G=400T=0.20yy=C+I+G12100208060(=0.75×80)Y34?5G4004101/(1–MPC)(MPC)1010000.8115000.2512102560025270010600?(1)0.75;(2)0.6(1)tbb=-×49♠♠♠♠♠5015-112i=i(r)1()r=3%n=5A=50000i=i(r)=e-drrOixx[(1+r/12)60+(1+r/12)59+(1+r/12)58+…+(1+r/12)1]=50000x=A/[(1+r/12)60+(1+r/12)59+(1+r/12)58+…+(1+r/12)1]512()r=3%A=50000n=526026050000,1/12(1/12)(1/12)111/[]1/12(1/12)(1/12)xxxrrrxxArrr+++=+++=++++++KK3120“”200055260601220.20.20.2120120[]1/12(1/12)(1/12)(1/12)1(1)(1)(1)nnnrrrrrRRRJRrrrr=++++++++=++…++++++K5215-3MEI(i)=rrMEIMECroi53IS1IS2i=e–dred≥0ED=c+i=α+βy+e–drES=y1edryab+-=-r⇒ir⇒sy⇒y*IS?54P48015-5ISrrssOyOyOiOii=si=i(r)s=s(y)y0s0r0i0i0s0y0r0r1i1s1y1r1i1s1y1IS55IS2ββIS3ISdβtIStIS1eryddb