金融危机,银行倒闭和中央银行的作用

[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.1FinancialCrises,BankFailures,andtheRoleofCentralBanks金融危机，银行倒闭和中央银行的作用英格兰银行培训中心主任[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.2BASICQUESTIONS:（两个基本问题）•DefinitionofFinancialCrises（金融危机的定义）•CausesoftheFinancialCrises（金融危机的根源）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.Bankingcrises(runs,panics,etc.)BoPandCurrencyCrises（银行危机（挤提、恐慌等），国际收支和货币危机）However,underfixedXR,abankrunturnsintoacurrencyruniftheCentralBankactsasalenderoflastresort.（然而，在固定汇率体制下，如果中央银行作为最后贷款人，银行挤提就会演变为货币挤提）AndifaCentralBank’sdefenseofthepegisbasedinaggressivelyraisingshort-terminterestrates,banksoundnesscouldbeseverelydamaged（如果中央银行依靠大幅提高短期利率来维护盯住汇率，银行的稳健就会受到严重破坏）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.MainCausesofBankingCrises（银行危机的主要根源）•LossofConfidence（丧失信心）•LiquidityCrunch（流动性紧缩）•SolvencyProblemsarisingfromExcessiveVolatilities（过度波动带来的偿付问题）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.MainCausesofBankingCrises（银行危机的主要根源）1.DomesticandExternalMacroeconomicVolatility（国内外宏观经济波动）2.CreditBoomsandCapitalInflows（信贷扩张和资本流入）3.Assetpricesbubblesandcollapses（资产价格泡沫及其破灭）4.ExcessivePublicSectorinvolvementandPoliticalpressures（公共部门过度参与和政治压力）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.MainCausesofBankingCrises(cont’d)银行危机的主要根源（续）5.Increasingcurrencyandmaturitymismatches（货币和期限错配加大）6.LegalandPrudentialWeaknesses（法律和审慎框架的弱点）7.WrongIncentivestoBankersandDepositors（为银行家和存款人提供错误的激励）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.1.MacroeconomicVolatility（宏观波动）Volatilitiestendtoalterrelationshipbetweenthevaluesofbankassetsandliabilities（波动一般会改变银行资产和负债价值之间的关系）Sources--DomesticandExternal（来源—内部和外部）EXTERNAL:--TermsofTradefluctuations（外部—贸易条件变动）ForeignInterestRatesandCapitalFlows（外国利率和资本流动）RealExchangeRates（实际汇率）DOMESTIC:--InflationandGrowthRates（内部——通货膨胀和经济增长率）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.•Volatilitiescouldbedealtwithby:（通过下列方式应对波动）•Reducingvolatilitiesunderdomesticcontrol（实施国内控制，减少波动）•Implementationofsteadymonetarypolicies（实施稳定的货币政策）Reducingexposurebydiversification（通过多样化分散风险）Foreign-ownedbanks（外国银行）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.Volatilitiescouldalsobedealtwithby:（也可通过下列方式应对波动）•Insurance（保险）•Promotethedevelopmentofmarketinstrumentsthatprovideprotectionagainstvolatilities–Derivativemarkets（促进能够抵御波动的市场工具的发展——衍生市场）•Financialcushionagainstvolatility-inducedlosses--Capitallevelstocompensateforvolatilities（为波动带来的损失提供财务上的缓冲手段，提高资本金水平应对波动冲击）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.2.CreditBoomsandCapitalInflows（信贷扩张和资本流入）•ExcessiveCreditCreationandUnsoundFinancialExpansionintheUpswing(mixedevidence)（信贷过度扩张以及经济上升期金融不稳健行为（各种证据））•Surgeofshorttermandunstablecapitalinflows（大量短期的不稳定的资本流入）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.Shouldcentralbanksdiscouragecreditboomsandshorttermcapitalinflows?Andhow?（中央银行是否应抑制信贷扩张和短期资本流入？如何抑制？）[e-mail]&MonetaryPolicy,Mauritius,March2004©BankofEnglandTheBankofEnglanddoesnotacceptanyliabilityformisleadingorinaccurateinformationoromissionsintheinformationprovided.•Sterilizationpolicies（对冲政策）•ControlsonCapitalFlows（对资本流动实施管制）•ReserveRequirements,variablecapitalrequirementsandotherprudentialinstruments(reser