并购整合估价(1)

ValuationMBA1FinanceValuationasaToolWeencountervaluationinmanysituations:Mergers&AcquisitionsLeveragedBuy-outs(LBOs&MBOs)Sell-offs,spin-offs,divestituresInvestorsbuyingaminorityinterestincompanyInitialpublicofferingsHowdoweestablishvalueofassets?Objectivetoday:TopreviewvaluationmethodsusedmostcommonlyinpracticeMBA1FinanceBusinessValuationTechniquesDiscountedcashflow(DCF)approachesDividenddiscountmodelFreecashflowstoequitymodel(directapproach)Freecashflowstothefirmmodel(indirectapproach)RelativevaluationapproachesP/E(capitalizationofearnings)EnterpriseValue/EBITDAOther:P/CF,P/B,P/SControltransactionbasedmodels(e.g.valuebasedonacquisitionpremiaof“similar”transactions)MBA1FinanceDiscountedCashFlowValuationWhatcashflowtodiscount?Investorsinstockreceivedividends,orperiodiccashdistributionsfromthefirm,andcapitalgainsonre-saleofstockinfutureIfinvestorbuysandholdsstockforever,alltheyreceivearedividendsIndividenddiscountmodel(DDM),analystsforecastfuturedividendsforacompanyanddiscountattherequiredequityreturnProblemwithdividends:theyare“managed”MBA1FinanceDividends:TheStabilityFactorFactorsthatinfluencedividends:DesireforstabilityFutureinvestmentneedsTaxfactorsSignalingprerogatives0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%19811984198719901993NoChangeIncreaseDecreaseDividendchanges:PubliclytradedU.S.FirmsSource:A.Damodaran,InvestmentValuation,Wiley,1997MBA1FinanceValuation:BacktoFirstPrinciplesValueofthefirm=valueoffixedclaims(debt)+valueofequityHowdomanagersaddtoequityvalue?Bytakingonprojectswithpositivenetpresentvalue(NPV)Equityvalue=equitycapitalprovided+NPVoffutureprojectsNote:Markettobookratio(or“Tobin’sQ”ratio)1ifmarketexpectsfirmtotakeonpositiveNPVprojects(i.e.firmhassignificant“growthopportunities”)MBA1FinanceValuation:FirstPrinciplesTotalvalueofthefirm=debtcapitalprovided+equitycapitalprovided+NPVofallfutureprojectsprojectforthefirm=uninvestedcapital+presentvalueofcashflowsfromallfutureprojectsforthefirmNote:ThisrecognizesthatnotallcapitalmaybecurrentlyusedtoinvestinprojectsMBA1FinanceTheValuationProcessIdentifycashflowsavailabletoallstakeholdersComputepresentvalueofcashflowsDiscountthecashflowsatthefirm’sweightedaveragecostofcapital(WACC)Thepresentvalueoffuturecashflowsisreferredtoas:Valueofthefirm’sinvestedcapital,orValueof“operatingassets”or“TotalEnterpriseValue”(TEV)MBA1FinanceTheValuationProcess,continuedValueofallthefirm’sassets(orvalueof“thefirm”)=Vfirm=TEV+thevalueofuninvestedcapitalUninvestedcapitalincludes:assetsnotrequired(“redundantassets”)“excess”cash(notneededforday-to-dayoperations)Valueofthefirm’sequity=Vequity=Vfirm-VdebtwhereVdebtisvalueoffixedobligations(primarilydebt)MBA1FinanceTotalEnterpriseValue(TEV)Formostfirms,themostsignificantitemofuninvestedcapitaliscashVfirm=Vequity+Vdebt=TEV+cashTEV=Vequity+Vdebt-cashTEV=Vequity+NetdebtwhereNetdebtisdebt-cash(note:thisassumesallcashis“excess”)MBA1FinanceMeasuringCashFlowsFreeCashFlowtotheFirm(FCFF)representscashflowstowhichallstakeholdersmakeclaimFCFF=EBIT(1-taxrate)+Depreciationandamortization(noncashitems)-CapitalExpenditures-IncreaseinWorkingCapitalWhatisworkingcapital?Non-cashcurrentassets-non-interestbearingcurrentliabilities(e.g.A/P&accruedliab.)MBA1FinanceWorkingCapitalvs.PermanentFinancingShort-termassetsShort-termliabilitiesPermanentCapitalLong-termassetsPermanentCapitalOperatingassetsWorkingcapitalPermanentcapitalmayinclude“current”itemssuchasbankloansifdebtislikelytoremainonthebooksKey:TreatitemsaseitherworkingcapitalpermanentcapitalbutnotbothUninvestedcapitalMBA1FinanceFCFFvs.AccountingCashFlowsIncomeStatement,Hudson’sBay($millions,FYEJan1999)Sales$7,075CostofGoodsSold$6,719EBITDA$356Depreciation$169EBIT$187InterestExpense$97IncomeTaxes$50NetIncome$40Dividends$53CashFlowStatement,Hudson’sBay,($millions,FYEJan1999)CashflowfromoperationsNetIncome$40Non-cashexpenses$169ChangesinWC($116)Cashprovided(used)byinvestmentsAdditionstoP,P&E($719)Cashprovided(used)byfinancingAdditions(reductions)todebt$259Additions(reductions)toequity$356Dividends($53)OverallNetCashFlows($64)Hudson’sBayFCFF=187*(1-0.44)[phone]=($561)MBA1FinanceCashFlowDefinitionIssuesHowisFCFFdifferentthanaccountingcashflows?OperatingcashflowsincludesinterestpaidWewanttoidentifycashflowsbeforetheyareallocatedtoclaimholdersFCFFalsoappearstomisstaxsavingsduetodebtKey:thesetaxsavingsareaccountedforinWACCMBA1FinanceAnExample$1millioncapitalrequiredtostartfirmCapitalstructure:20%debt(10%pre-taxrequiredreturn)10%preferreddebt(7%requiredreturn)70%equity(15%requiredreturn)taxrateis50%firmexpectstogenerate244,000EBITinperpetuityfuturecapitalexpendituresjustoffsetdepreciationnofutureadditionalworkingcapitalinvestmentsarerequiredWhatshouldbethevalueofthisfirm?MBA1FinanceAnExample,continuedAftertaxWACCis12.2%sopre-taxWACCis24.4%EBIT/capitalisalso24.4%,soNPVoffutureprojectsforthisfirmiszeroValueoffirmshouldequal$1million(investedcapital)FCFF=EBIT*(1-t)=$122,000Value=122,000/0.122=$1,000,000MBA1FinanceTwoStageFCFFValuationImpossible