信息技术革命与生产率悖论

[]6070[][]20TheRevolutionofInformationTechnologyandtheProductivityParadoxJiangJian-qiang1QiaoYan-qingSunFeng(1.SchoolofEconomics,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China)Abstract:ItisnodoubtthattheITrevolutionisagreattechnologicalprogressinhumanhistory.However,statisticsdatashowsthatsincethebirthoftheITrevolutioninthe1960sor1970stheUSeconomydidnotgrowfasterenough,sodidlaborproductivityandmultifactorproductivity.Theoretically,thisphenomenoniscalled“productivityparadox”.Thispaperexaminesandassessesthemostcommonexplanationsfortheparadox,attemptingtoprovidesometheoreticalbackgroundforfurtherresearch.Keywords:EconomicGrowth;ProductivityParadox;TotalFactorProductivity;[e-mail]1TheProductivityParadoxSolow1987ITLPTFP19491973LP2.9%TFP1.9%19731997LPTFP1.1%0.2%7019206070ITOECD197370R&D1/4ITSolowITIT90909019901994LP0.9%19941999LP2.7%TFP199519981.26%ITITITBlinder20001994200019771978198319871990199219831987LPTFPBlinder19731997ITITSolow1987Weseethecomputerseverywherebutintheproductivitystatistics2TFPGDPITGDPGDPGDPGDPIT.idiosyncraticIT2000ITITLPTFPITGDPITErwinandKevin1999LP1OCACU1ACAEFU2CDOCODGDPOBOD190IT30%3U1U2EOABCDFGDPITLPITTriplett1998GDPLP70LPGrilishes199470LPITDavid199018801920LPITLPIT60ITSharp1999ITITITIT90ITJorgensonandStiroh2000ITITLPTFP90ITLPIT48%ITITOlinerandSichel,1994JorgensonandStiroh,1999ITITITIT90OlinerandSichelITITdttfpddtdLdtdKdtdKdtdYNII)(+++=γβα1dYdKdKdLITITLdt/dtI/dtNI/dt/IKNIKγβαITITdTFPOlinerandSicheldttfp/)(γβαITITIT2%α1ITdtdKI/αITITITsupernormalITIT40ITIT1TFPITTFPTriplett19981973LPTFPIT1IT19701979IT0.253.42198019920.352.275JorgensonandStiroh1999ITITMoore'sLawITIT2000Jorgenson19991990199616.6%2.3%3.6%ITITLPLPITITTFPITGriliches1994ITITLPLPαα−=1LAKY2α1L()αLKALY//=()()LKALY/lnln/lnα+=^^^)(ALKLY+=α3^TFPLP^A63^/LK^ATFP1TFPTFPameasureofourignoranceTFPJorgensonandGriliches1967TFP96.7%TFPSolowTFPR&DJorgensonR&DTFPR&DR&DR&DTFPTFPTFPLPTFPTFPTFPTFPTFP1973LPTFPJorgensonJorgensonITinternalizedITSolowHulten200072000ITITITIT[][1]Blinder,A.,2000,TheInternetandtheNewEconomy,BrookingsPolicyBrief,No60.[2]David,P.,1990,TheDynamoandtheComputer:AHistoricalPerspectiveontheModernProductivityParadox,AmericanEconomicReview80:355-61.[3]Erwin,D.,andKevinF.,1999,CanMeasurementErrorExplaintheProductivityParadox?,CanadianJournalofEconomics,32(2):251-80.[4]GrilichesZ.,1994,Productivity,R&D,andtheDataConstraints,AmericanEconomicReview84(1):1-23.[5]Jorgenson,D.,andGriliches,Z.,1967,TheExplanationofProductivityChange,ReviewofEconomicStudies,34:349-83.[6]Jorgenson,D.,andSitroh,K.,1999,InformationTechnologyandGrowth,AmericanEconomicReview,90(2):161-67.[7]Jorgenson,D.,andSitroh,K.,2000,RaisingtheSpeedLimit:U.S.EconomicGrowthintheInformationAge,BrookingPapersonEconomicActivity,pp.129-160.[8]Oliner,S.,andSichel,D.,1994,ComputersandOutputGrowthRevisited:HowBigIsthePuzzle?BrookingsPapersandEconomicActivity,pp.273-334.[8]Sharp,A.,1999,OrganizationalStructure,InformationTechnologyandProductivity:CanOrganizationalChangeResolvetheProductivity,AppliedResearchBranchStrategicPolicyHumanResourcesDevelopmentCanada.[9]Solow,R.,1987,“We’dBetterWatchOut,”NewYorkTimesBookReview,July12:36.[10]Triplett,J.,1998,TheSolowProductivityParadox:WhatDoComputersDoToProductivity?BrookingsInstitutionWorkingPaper.[11]20002000114[12]2001CCERNo.20010028