贴现现金流模型在零售企业并购定价中的应用

华中科技大学硕士学位论文贴现现金流模型在零售企业并购定价中的应用姓名：沈红平申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：袁建国20061026I,;;;WHIIAbstractAlongwiththegraduallyopenofChina’sRetailMarket,thecompetitionofChina’sretailingindustrywillbecomemoreandmoreintensive.Theexpansionmethodwillalsochangefromdirectinvestmentonnewstorestomergeandacquisitionnationalretailingbusinessenterprises.Thechoiceofscientificvaluationmodelhasbeenthecrucialstepintheprocessofenterpriseevaluation.Duetothelong-termplannedeconomysystem,thestudyonenterprisevaluationmodelrelativelydragglesinChina.Weusuallyreferencethestudyresultoftheforeigncountryonthevaluationmodel.However,thekeyvaluationmethodisstillthetraditionalevaluationwayonthebasisofhistoricaldatainpractice.ThemainmodelusedinvaluatingenterprisevalueisDCFmodelininternationalpractice.Basedontheclassictheoryofenterprisevaluation,thepapersummarizethebasicvaluationmodel,especiallythetheoryandapplicationconditionofDCFmodel,combinedwiththedevelopmentofretailingbusiness,thepaperfurtheranalyzeanddiscusstheapplicationofDCFmodelinretailingenterpriseMerger&Acquisition,finallyforwardsomeissuestobenotedintheapplication.Thewholepaperdividedbyfourchapters.Thefirstchapterreviewsthecurrentstudystatusofenterprisevaluationtheory.Thesecondchapterintroducestheconceptofenterprisevalue,whichfocusesontheDCFmodel.Startingfromtheactualdevelopmentofretailing,thethirdchapteranalyzesthechoiceofDCFmethodandgivessomecommentsontheMerger&Acquisitionpricing.InthecaseofW&Hcompany,theforthchapterseethroughtheapplicationprocessandforwardthesomesuggestion.Keywords:DCFmodelRetailingMerger&AcquisitionEnterpriseValuation111.1200412112095070%2-3[1]GeorgeStigler[2]22004Tesco50%21.210090%GDP1897-1904;1916-1929;1965-1969,;1981-1989;1992[3]1906(IrvingFisher)1930[4]()20(DCF)RCM1973.FisherBlack.(MyronScholes)Black-Scholes[5]199191:3200422520041230200541[6]1.3DCF()WH422.12.1.1·OscarWilde2050[7]·[8][9]51):”[10]”2)()[11]3)6·2.1.2Merger&Acquisition”M&A”M&A[12]1)(Exxon)(Mobile)(1999),SBC(Ameritech)(1998)2)(U.S.Stee)(MarathonOil)USX3)2-17(Cisco)MCIWorldCom(Yahoo)(AOL)2-120906.55WTO2005IBMPC//82.1.3139[14]2.22.2.1[15]=(2-1)n=t(1+r)tCFnt=110CFt=tR=,;();(FCFE)[16]()FCFE=+-––+(2-2)(FCFF)(WACC)FCFF=+(1-)+–+FCFF=EBIT(1-)+––(2-3)(EBIT)11EBIT(EBITDA)EBITDA=+·=(2-4)NOPLATT+1ROICIWACCG–NOPLATT+11-g/ROICI)WACC-g12(WACC)WACC=Ke(E/M)+Kd(D/M)(2-5)Ke=Kd=M=D=E=(CAPM)CAPM:Ke=E(r)=Rf+[E(Rm)–Rf](2-6)Rf==Rm=CAPM110.313(build-upmethod),CAPM(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)2.2.21);EBITDA(1)(PE)PE=P0/EPS0(2-7)14EBIDA(2)(PBV)/TobinQ()[17]TobinQQ(3)(PS/VS)PBV;(VS)2)1973(Black)(Scholes)Blank-ScholesBlack-Scholes(1)(2)()[18]15=–==(2-8)Cu=SuCd=SdBlack-Scholes=SN(d1)–Ke-nN(d2)(2-9)d1=d2=d1–S=K=T=R=2=ln()2.32.3.1Cu-CdSu-SdSK()+(r+σ22)tσtlnσt16[19]1);2)3)4)17[20]2.3.2·8%16.6%[21],,TCLTCL15.524.4TCL[22]1833.1(1),(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)[23](1)(2)(7)(8)·[24]3-1[25]3-119(Wal-Mart),[26](1)/(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)[27]1)(DIA)2)(RocketScienceRetailing)---[28]203)·214)5),3.23.2.12003GDP100020049.5%,20059.9%;GDP7.5%-9%2.5%-3.5%[29]1.3(AsiaEconomicInsightVol.197)2005320151.74.8213-22005200620072008200920101,3061,3141,3221,3301,3391,348(%)9.98.58.07.57.07.0(%)8.08.68.37.46.86.9()67,17774,60183,91693,960104,733116,316(%)12.911.012.512.011.511.0(%)3.03.53.02.52.52.5(20055/411CitigroupGlobalMarkets&M+MPlanetRetail)3.2.220041211199842005392095070%CEO12·20053016,665200420.7%304,910.4200430.9%2006820062,751200525%22shoppingmall20060.7%50.8%55-103.2.3200524“”“”27415(Best-Buy)1.851%2005307%13;23A79()38%43%720%1725%3130%[30]3.32004831Tesco1.4(21.3)50%;2005Ashmore352.24%;2006725(0493.HK)(0505.HK),52.68……3.3.1241);;;;2)(PS)(PE)EBITA(PE)[31]28.7127.7946.4542.4731.6519.753)25EBITA(PS)EBITDA(1)GDP5-10[32][33](2)(K-Mart)(3)26,,3.3.2;27;QQ1200342.19A47.67%2004200321.28%33.21APEPSVSTesco50200527Tesco28294WH4.14.1.1HH/200510H19962005341690HH60%2005HHHH50%250-33012000-2100070%30%75%H1060,0003H30H2004ACNielsen79%200369%HHH10%-20%H2005H30000HH90200411H20%4.1.2W2005W3,124500W200511W2005W1,608W19961998200237.8%W199620053057W173152005W9.931WW”()3.3%(1)(2)H3-4W(3)(4)(5)8.10(6)H(7)4.2.233HH:4-1H10%-20%()H2003-10%20050.5%2%EBITDAH4.2.310HHH(StandaloneValue)3-520022003200420056,550.88,094.29,860.910,801.2%NA23.6%21.8%9.5%135.290.3(3.4)(99.1)%2.1%1.1%0.0%-0.9%EBITDA246.6269.1175.6104.5%3.8%3.3%1.8%1.0%3.8%2.1%-0.1%-1.9%344-2106%3%4.2.4HH4-33-4HWH100652007WHWW200620072008200920102011201220132014201511,10913,21416,23820,07025,50932,46041,06449,89959,79870,8212,1352,6333,3014,1105,2836,8098,72410,65212,79215,1932,6293,3053,8364,8225,8107,3398,7969,84611,52413,479(162)(356)(72)(200)471176561,6282,1962,7662006200720082009201020112012201320142015-172-369-89-22021846151,5782,1362,696(–)@33%0000-7-28-203-521-705-890-172-369-89-22014564121,0571,4311,806(+)2422883955477439861,2921,5081,7171,942EBITDA69-813063277581,0421,7052,5653,1483,748(–)-335-469-577-1,010-1,147-1,333-1,708-1,466-1,726-1,960(–)-233-1,101207265374476586606680756UFCF-499-1,651-65-418-151855831,7052,1022,544354.2.5WACC---W