经济增长和技术创新理论

CambridgeJournalofEconomics2010,34,153–171doi:10.1093/cje/bep075AdvanceAccesspublication22December2009TechnologyandeconomictheoryJ.StanMetcalfe*Technologyandtechnologicalchangeplayacentralroleineconomics,whetherinthetheoryofresourceallocationorinthetheoryofgrowthanddevelopment.Yetthenatureoftechnologyislargelyignoredineconomictheory,itbeingconsideredsufficienttotreattechnologyasaconstraintonproductiveopportunities.Thisshortessaydelvesalittledeeperintothenatureoftechnologyandthematerial,energyandinformationtransformationprocessesthatitrepresents.Adeeperunderstandingoftechnologyleadstoadeeperunderstandingofthemaincurrentsoftechnologicaladvanceandtothereasonswhythedevelopmentoftechnologyanditsapplicationaresounevenovertimeandplace.Keywords:Technology,Transformations,TechnologicalchangeJELclassifications:O30,O331.IntroductionVeryfeweconomistswoulddissentfromtheclaimthattechnologyanditscorrelatesoccupyacentralroleintheperformanceofrealeconomiesandthatchangesintechnologyarecentraltoanunderstandingofgrowthanddevelopment,tothetheoryofcompetitionandthenatureofthefirm,totheexplanationofshiftsincomparativeadvantage,aswellastomanyotherproblems.Asthebridgebetweenproductivefactorsandhumansatisfaction,technologyisanintegralpartofanytheoryofcoordinationandofthestructureofeconomiclife.EversincethepioneeringworkofAbramovitzandSolowinthe1950s,economistshavebeenacutelyawareofthefactthatincreasesintheproductivityofarepresentativebundleofinputsaccountforthebulkofaggregateeconomicgrowth.1ButthisideawasalreadyManuscriptreceived11July2008;finalversionreceived6August2009.Addressforcorrespondence:email:[e-mail]*ManchesterInstituteofInnovationResearchandCentreforBusinessResearchCambridgeUniversity.IthankJanFagerbergfortheopportunitytovisittheCentreforAdvancedStudyinOsloin2008,wherethefirstdraftofthispaperwasprepared.Ialsothank,withoutvestigeofblame,HeinzKurzandRichardNelsonforhelpfulguidanceonanearlierdraft.Subsequentcommentsbytworefereeshavemateriallychangeditscontent,andIamverygratefultothemfortheirdetailedsuggestions.1SeeAbramovitz(1956,1989,ch.1)andSolow(1957).ItisoftenarguedthatSolow’sgrowthaccountingmethodoverstatesthesignificanceoftechnicalprogressrelativetofactoraccumulationbuttheoppositeistrue.Iftheneoclassicalgrowthstoryistakenseriouslythensteadygrowthimpliesthatalloftheincreaseofoutputperemployeeisattributabletotechnicalprogress,becausetheassociatedrateofcapitaldeepeningisinducedby,andcouldnotoccurindependentlyof,therateoftechnicalprogress.Infamiliarterminology,the‘shiftsaround’theproductionfunctionareinducedby‘shiftsin’theproductionfunction.OutsideoftheneoclassicalframeworkthispointwasdevelopedindetailinRymes(1971).ForfurthercriticalassessmentseeNelson(1973).!TheAuthor2009.PublishedbyOxfordUniversityPressonbehalfoftheCambridgePoliticalEconomySociety.Allrightsreserved.atRoyalHolloway,UniversityofLondononNovember27,2011ficiencyarecloselytiedtochangesinunderlyingtechnologyiswidelyaccepted,evenifonlybyassertion,fortechnologyisalwaysashadowcastbytheactivitiesinwhichweareinterested.Itisnotredundant,therefore,toposethequestion‘whatdoeconomistsmeanbytechnology?’.Unfortunately,thereisnostraightforwardresponsetothisquestion,andanyparticularanswerusuallydependsonthewiderframeworkofproblemsinwhichaconceptoftechnologyhastofit.Theconceptoftechnologythatiscentraltoanevolutionaryaccountofuneveneconomicdevelopment,forexample,isfarremovedfromtheconceptthatisrequiredinatheoryofastaticorstationaryeconomicequilibrium.Whattheyallhaveincommonistheideathatwhatevertechnologyis,itisinseparablefromtheexerciseofhumanagencyandmustthereforehavefeaturesthatarecompatiblewiththelimitationsofhumanagency.Bytechnology,wecanmeanabodyofunderstandingofcauseandeffectinhumanminds,aswiththecodifiedrealisationsofproductiveknowledgeinoperatingmanuals,blueprints,recipes,scientificpapersandsoon;thecapacitiesandskillsthatpermitaction,whetherindividuallyorincooperationwithothers,notallofwhichwillbewrittendown;andthepurposefullyorganisedanddesignedbuiltstructureswithinwhichactiontakesplace—therealised,humanbuiltworldasHughes(2004)hascalledit.Technologyisacomplexnotionandtodevelopthisthemeweshallproceedinthreestages,beginningwiththeideaofaproductionfunctionandthemoreprimitivenotionofaproductiveactivityanditsrelationtomenus,recipesandblueprints.Wenextturntoadiscussionofthetransformativenatureofproductiveactivityintermsofthematerialandenergybasisforproductionand,finally,wemakesomebriefhistoricalobservationsonthemaintrajectoriesoftechnicalchangeassociatedwiththistransformativeperspective.Wovenintothisaccountaretwounderlyingthemes.Thefirstisthatrealisedtechnologyisalsoamatteroftheorganisationandmanagementofproductionsystems,aswellasofdirectproductiveworkinamechanicalorchemicalsense.Thesecondisthatrealisedtechnologiesareinvariablysystemic,composedofinterrelatedactivitiesthathaveanarchitecturecomprisingstru