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201224Logit(,201804):Logit,。,Logit,,。:Logit;Gumbel;;:U491.12:A:1002-4786(2012)04-0103-02DeductionProcessofLogitModelYANJin-shi(SchoolofTransportationEngineering,TongjiUniversity,Shanghai201804,China)Abstract:TheresearchaboutLogitmodelinChinaareallestablishedbasedonexistingformulas,butlessresearchareaboutthedeductingprocessandassumedconditionofthemodel.Giventhis,throughintroducingthedeductingprocessofLogitmodelandanalyzingitsassumedcondition,somereferencecanbeprovidedtopeers.Keywords:Logitmodel;Gumbeldistribution;deduce;assumedcondition1Logit,、,。,。,,。。,,(),。。2Logit:Uin=Vin+εinVin=Vi(Xin)εin=Uin(xin)+ΔUin(xin)VinXin;εinxin。ni:Pin=PUin=maxkUkn =P(V1n+ε1n<Vin+εin,V2n+ε2n<Vin+εin,…,Vcn+εcn<Vin+εin)=P(ε1n<Vin+εin-V1n,ε2n<Vin+εin-V2n,…,εin,…,εcn<Vin+εin-Vcn)ε1n,ε2n,…,εcn:F(ε1n,ε2n,…,εcn),:Pin=+∞-∞乙F(Vin+εin-V1n,Vin+εin-V2n,…,εin,…,Vin+εin-Vcn)εindεin3GumbelX1,X2,…,XnF(x)i.i.d.,X(n)=max(X1,X2,…,Xn)。n,X(n)(),VonMises、FrechetFisher。1943X(n),,,P(X(n)-μn)<xG1(x)=e-e-x-∞<x<+∞((1),,Gumbel):x∈R,limn→∞{n[1-F(μn+δnx)]}=e-x,μnδnF(μn+δn)=1-1/ne。TrafficEngineering1031、、、、、、、、、VonMisesP(X(n)-μn)δn<xG1(x),。F(x):a)x,F′(x);b)x,P(x)=F′(x)>0;c)limn→∞d/dx1-F(x)P(x)→→=0,X(n)G(x)=G1[(x-μ)/δ],G1(1)。,F′(x)=P(x),x>0,Const×e-xαxβ,,α>0。、、WeibullGam-ma。4———Logit:ε1n,ε2n,…,εcn,εinGumbel:F(εin)=e-e-λεin圯F(ε1n,ε2n,…,εcn)=e-e-λε1ne-e-λε2n…e-e-λεin…e-e-λεcn圯F(ε1n,ε2n,…,εcn)εin=λe-εine-e-λε1ne-e-λε2n…e-e-λεin…e-e-λεcn圯F(Vin+εin-V1n,Vin+εin-V2n,…,εin,…,Vin+εin-Vcn)εin=λe-λεie-e-λ(Vin+εin-V1n)e-e-λ(Vin+εin-V2n)…e-λεi…e-e-λ(Vin+εin-Vcn)=λe-λεie-e-λ(Vin+εin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin+εin-V2n)+…+e-λεi+…+e-λ(Vin+εin-Vcn)圯圯=λe-λεie-λεie-λ(Vin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin-V2n)…+1…+e-λ(Vin-Vcn)圯圯圯Pin=+∞-∞乙F(Vin-εin-V1n,Vin+εin-V2n,…,εin,…,Vin+εin-Vcn)εidεin=+∞-∞乙λe-λεie-e-λεi[e-λ(Vin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin-V2n)+…+1+…+e-λ(Vin-Vcn)]dεin=-+∞-∞乙e-e-λεi[e-λ(Vin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin-V2n)+…+1+…+e-λ(Vin-Vcn)]de-λεi=-+∞-∞乙e-kydy=e-kyk+∞-∞=e-ke-λεik+∞-∞,y=e-λεi;k=e-λ(Vin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin-V2n)+…+1+…+e-λ(Vin-Vcn)。:limεi→+∞e-ke-λεi=1,limεi→-∞e-ke-λεi=0,:Pin=1k=1e-λ(Vin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin-V2n)+…+1+…+e-λ(Vin-Vcn)=1k=1e-λ(Vin-V1n)+e-λ(Vin-V2n)+…+1+…+e-λ(Vin-Vcn)=e-λVin∑c1e-λVin5Logit1:。,。DeSarbo,,。Alderson,,,。,4(1)。,。,。,,。2:ε1n,ε2n,…,εcn。,LogitA,Logit。A,。,,:a)(NL,CNL,GNL);b)(HEV);c)(MixedLogit)。-eTrafficEngineering1042012246Logit,Logit,,。,,。Logit,,。[1].[M].2.:,2006.[2].[M].3.:,2007.[3],,.Logit[J].,2009,(2):73-75.[4],.Gumbe1[J].,2005,(2):169-175.[5]ChandraRBhat,JessicaGuo.AMixedSpatiallyCorrelatedLogitModel:FormulationandApplicationtoResidentialChoiceModeling[J].TransportationRe-searchPartB,2004,(38):147168.:(1985—),,,,。:2011-11-031,2(1.,725000;2.,710068):,,、,,。:;;:U491.7:A:1002-4786(2012)04-0105-03ParkingProblemofOldUrbanAreaJiangnanDistrictofAnkangCityHEXiang-fa1,LIYong-di2(1.MunicipalFacilityManagementOfficeofAnkangCity,Ankang725000,China;2.Xi′anMunicipalEngineeringDesign&ResearchInstituteCo.,Ltd.,Xi′an710068,China)Abstract:TakingoldurbanareaJiangnanDistrictofAnkangCityasobject,theproblemofparkinginoldurbanareaisstudied.Thedevelopmentstrategyofparkingaswellasbuildingindexesandlayoutofparkinglotsareproposedinordertosolvetheparkingproblemandprovidesomereferencetothesustainabledevelopmentofcitytraffic.Keywords:oldurbanarea;parkingforecast;parkingmanagement!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!TrafficEngineering105
本文标题:Logit模型的推导过程-颜金石
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