多米诺效应定量风险分析

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,[e-mail];(),,,:(200603746006):100926094(2008)01201452053,,(,300071):,,,;,;,,,F-N,,:;;;;:X93:A0,,,Seveso-(96/82/EC)[1],,,,,,,,,,,,1(AIChE-CCPS)[2]:,,HSE[3]:Lees,;BagsterandPitlado,,,,,Cozzani[4,5]:,1,,:,::Cozzani[5]4:1);2);3)1;4)3:,,,:(),,,12211n+1,1(f),()n,(),11,,k(kn)[4]1Fig.1FlowdiagramoftheprocedurefortheDominoeffect5418120082JournalofSafetyandEnvironmentVol.8No.1Feb,2008©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=n!(n-k)!k!(1)nS=C1n+C2n++Cnn(2)S=C1n+C2n++Cnn=2n-1(3),n=10,S=21021=1023,212[4]f(k,m)d=fP(k,m)d(4)P(k,m)d=ni=1[1-Pi+C(i,Jkm)(2Pi-1)](5)f(k,m)dkm;f,;P(k,m)dkm;Pii,;Jkm=[1,,k],km,mm(1mS),kk(kn),iJkm,C(i,Jkm)1,0n=3,S=2321=7,3T1T2T3,J11=[T1],P(1,1)d=P1(1-P2)(1-P3)J12=[T2],P(1,2)d=P2(1-P1)(1-P3)J13=[T3],P(1,3)d=P3(1-P1)(1-P2)J21=[T1,T2],P(2,1)d=P1P2(1-P3)J22=[T1,T3],P(2,2)d=P1P3(1-P2)J23=[T2,T3],P(2,3)d=P2P3(1-P1)J31=[T1,T2,T3],P(3,1)d=P1P2P3213,TNO(TheNetherlandsOrganizationofAp2pliedScientificResearch)iPiPi3:P=12Y-5-e-x2/2dx(6)P;Y;x1[5,6]Y,Y(6)3,,2[5],,-,[1,7]V=12Y-5-e-u2/2du(7)1Table1Modelfordamageprobability15kW/m210minY=12.54-1.847lntlnt=-1.128lnI-2.66710-5V+9.87750kW/m210minY=12.54-1.847lntlnt=-0.947lnI+8.835V0.03222kPaY=-18.96+2.44lnps:17kPaY=-42.44+4.33lnps16kPa()/31kPa()Y=-28.07+3.16lnps37kPa()/()Y=-17.79+2.18lnpsGubinelli:Y;t;I,kW/m2;V,m3;ps,Pa641Vol.8No.181©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=D-u(8)Y=a+blnD(9)D;;Y;ab,,(),,,,V(k,m)d,[5]V(k,m)d,=min[(V+ni=1C(i,Jkm)Vd,i),1](10)V(k,m)d,km;iiJkm,C(i,Jkm)1,0;Vd,ii4(QRA):1);2)2Table2ModelforhumanvulnerabilityY=-37.23+2.56lnDD=I1.33teY=5.13+1.37lnDD=ps:Y=-10.1+1.11lnDD=C1.65te:Y=-9.82+0.71lnDD=C2te:Y;I,W/m2;ps,Pa;C,ppm;te,sR=f(k,m)dV(k,m)d,(11)f(k,m)d;V(k,m)d,F-N,F,N54,A1A2,P1P2,11023/m2,1131025a-1A1,(TNT)344A1A1A2,A21,P1P2,(11),F-N,,F-NA180m,20,34,(4)(5),,5623Table3Characteristicandinventoryoftheequipmentsinthecase2study/a-1/tA1113102525A2113102525P131027150P2310271504Table4ProbabilityofthesecondaryeventA1/m/kPaPA215300Y=-18.96+2.44lnpsP1=1P15050Y=-42.44+4.33lnpsP2=0128P26518P3=05Table5Distancesofindividualriskcalculatedforthecase2studymP()D1(1)D2(2)110261001403101102712015138574120082,:Feb,2008©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(k,m)d(50%)/mD1YYNN01729136102610031D2YYYN012831641026296120D3YYYY00...........................:YYes,;NNo,;D1A1A2,D2A1A2P1,D32F-NFig.2MapofindividualriskandF2Nsocietalriskcurves6:1),,,,,;2)f(k,m)dV(k,m)d,,P;3),,,,,,References():[1]OfficialJournaloftheEuropeanCommunities.Councildirective96/82/ECof9December1996onthecontrolofmajor2accidenthazardsinvolv2ingdangeroussubstances[J].OfficialJournaloftheEuropeanCommunities,L10/13,Brussels,1997,14(1):9721071[2]CenterforChemicalProcessSafety.Guidelinesforchemicalprocessquantitativeriskanalysis[M].2nded.NewYork:AmericanInstituteofChemicalEngineers,20001[3]GLEDHILLJ,LINESI.Developmentofmethodstoassessthesignificanceofdominoeffectsfrommajorhazardsites[R].London:HealthandSafetyExecutive,1998:2231[4]COZZANIV,GUBINELLIG,ANTONIONIG,etal.Theassessmentofriskcausedbydominoeffectinquantitativeareariskanalysis[J].JournalofHazardousMaterials,2005,127(1/2/3):142301[5]COZZANIV,ANTONIONIG,SPADONIG.QuantitativeassessmentofdominoscenariosbyaGIS2basedsoftwaretool[J].JournalofLossPreventionintheProcessIndustries,2006,19(5):46324771[6]COZZANIV,SALZANOE.Thequantitativeassessmentofdominoef2fectscausedbyoverpressure:PartI.Probitmodels[J].JournalofHazardousMaterials,2004,107(3):672801[7]ROSSS.Afirstcourseinprobability()[M].ZHAOXuanmin(),trans.6thed.Beijing:ChinaMachinePress,2006:10021621OnthequantitativeassessmentofriskbyDominoeffectZHANGYong2qiang,LIUMao,ZHANGDong2li(ResearcherCenterofUrbanPublicSafety,NankaiUniversity,Tian2jin300071,China)Abstract:Thispaperisaimedatpresentingtheauthorsstudyof841Vol.8No.181©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.