Risk-Management(风险管理)

IS5540ProjectManagement&QualityAssuranceWeek8-ProjectRiskManagementSchwalbe:ManagingInformationTechnologyProjects,Chapter11AdaptedbyJanetYu,FrankLoPMIFramework:9KnowledgeAreasIntegrationScopeTimeCostQualityPeopleCommunicationRiskProcurement2LearningObjectivesUnderstandwhatriskisandtheimportanceofgoodprojectriskmanagementDiscusstheelementsinvolvedinriskmanagementplanningandthecontentsofariskmanagementplanDescribetheriskidentificationprocessandthemainoutput:ariskregisterDiscussthequalitativeriskanalysisprocessandexplainhowtocreateprobability/impactmatrixesExplainthequantitativeriskanalysisprocessandhowtoapplydecisiontrees,simulation,andsensitivityanalysistoquantifyrisksProvideexamplesofusingdifferentriskresponseplanningstrategiestoaddressbothnegativeandpositiverisksDiscusswhatisinvolvedinriskmonitoringandcontrol3TheImportanceofProjectRiskManagementProjectriskmanagementisBothanartandscienceincludesidentifying,analyzing,andrespondingtoriskthroughoutthelifeofaprojectRiskmanagementisoftenoverlookedinprojects4Table11-1:ProjectManagementMaturitybyIndustryGroupandKnowledgeArea*KEY:1=LOWESTMATURITYRATING5=HIGHESTMATURITYRATINGKnowledgeAreaEngineering/ConstructionTelecommunicationsInformationSystemsHi-TechManufacturingScope3.523.453.253.37Time3.553.413.033.50Cost3.743.223.203.97Quality2.913.222.883.26HumanResources3.183.202.933.18Communications3.533.533.213.48Risk2.932.872.752.76Procurement3.333.012.913.33*Ibbs,C.WilliamandYoungHoonKwak.“AssessingProjectManagementMaturity,”ProjectManagementJournal(March2000).5Figure11-1.BenefitsfromSoftwareRiskManagementPractices6*Kulik,PeterandCatherineWeber,“SoftwareRiskManagementPractices–2001,”KLCIResearchGroup(August2001).NegativeRiskAdictionarydefinitionofriskis“thepossibilityoflossorinjury”NegativeriskinvolvesunderstandingpotentialproblemsthatmightoccurintheprojectandhowtheymightimpedeprojectsuccessNegativeriskmanagementislikeaformofinsurance;itisaninvestment7RiskCanBePositivePositiverisksarerisksthatresultingoodthingshappening;sometimescalledopportunitiesAgeneraldefinitionofprojectriskisanuncertaintythatcanhaveanegativeorpositiveeffectonmeetingprojectobjectivesThegoalofprojectriskmanagementistominimizepotentialnegativerisksmaximizepotentialpositiverisks8ProjectRiskManagementProcessesPlanriskmanagement:decidinghowtoapproachandplantheriskmanagementactivitiesfortheprojectIdentifyrisks:determiningwhichrisksarelikelytoaffectaprojectanddocumentingthecharacteristicsofeachPerformqualitativeriskanalysis:prioritizingrisksbasedontheirprobabilityandimpactofoccurrence9ProjectRiskManagementProcesses(continued)Performquantitativeriskanalysis:numericallyestimatingtheeffectsofrisksonprojectobjectivesPlanriskresponses:takingstepstoenhanceopportunitiesandreducethreatstomeetingprojectobjectivesMonitorandcontrolrisks:monitoringidentifiedandresidualrisks,identifyingnewrisks,carryingoutriskresponseplans,andevaluatingtheeffectivenessofriskstrategiesthroughoutthelifeoftheproject10PlanRiskManagement11PlanRiskManagementThemainoutputofriskmanagementplanningisaRiskManagementPlan—aplanthatdocumentstheproceduresformanagingriskthroughoutaprojectShouldunderstandsponsor’sapproachestoriskThelevelofdetailwillvary12Table11-2:TopicsAddressedinaRiskManagementPlanMethodologyRolesandresponsibilitiesBudgetandscheduleRiskcategoriesE.g.Market,Financial,Technology,People,ProcessRiskprobabilityandimpactScoringandinterpretationmethodsStakeholders’tolerancesRisk-averseVsrisk-seekingTrackingRiskdocumentation13RiskBreakdownStructureARiskBreakdownStructureisahierarchyofpotentialriskcategoriesforaprojectSimilartoaworkbreakdownstructurebutusedtoidentifyandcategorizerisks14InformationTechnologyProjectManagement,FifthEdition,Copyright2007Figure11-4:SampleRiskBreakdownStructure15ContingencyandFallbackPlans,ContingencyReservesContingencyplansarepredefinedactionsthattheprojectteamwilltakeifanidentifiedriskeventoccursFallbackplansareactionsthatwillbetakenifthecontingencyplanisnoteffectiveContingencyreservesorallowancesareprovisionstoreducetheriskofcostorscheduleoverrunstoanacceptablelevel16IdentifyRisks17IdentifyRisksTheprocessofunderstandingwhatpotentialeventsmighthurtorenhanceaparticularprojectRiskidentificationtoolsandtechniquesinclude:BrainstormingTheDelphiTechniqueInterviewingSWOTanalysis18DelphiTechniqueTheDelphiTechniqueisusedtoderiveaconsensusamongapanelofexpertsAkindofexpertjudgmentProvidesindependentandanonymousinputregardingfutureeventsUsesrepeatedroundsofquestioningandwrittenresponsesandavoidsthebiasingeffectspossibleinoralmethods,suchasbrainstorming19RiskRegisterThemainoutputofvariousriskmanagementprocessesCancontain:Riskeventsrefertospecific,uncertaineventsthatmayoccurtothedetrimentorenhancementoftheproject.E.g.projectdelay,increaseincosts,shortageinsupplyDescriptionRankUsuallyanumber,with1beingthehighestCategoryRootcauseTriggersIndicatorsorsymptoms,e.g.defectiveproducts,scheduleoverrunResponsesProbabilityandimpactOwner20Table11-5:SampleRiskRegister21Per